Policy Regimes and Performance of the Agricultural Sector in Latin America and the Caribbean During the Last Three Decades

In a review of the policy regimes and agricultural output performance in Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC) during the past three decades, the linear sequence of pre-reform, crisis and reform, and post-reform recovery is qualified, focusing on a sample of nine LAC countries. The sector did quite well during the ISI policy regime, criticized for its price discrimination, and does not show the assumed characteristics of the 'lost decade' during most of the 1980s, as even agricultural exports (in constant terms) remained important, only to suffer from drops in international prices. Residually treated in the macro-oriented reforms, it has never regained the growth rates under the SAP policy regime, while it was expected that it would benefit more than others. These unorthodox conclusions are founded on a detailed investigation into agricultural output and export performance, correlating it with a reform index (on a country basis).     

Evolutionary competition between prediction rules and the emergence of business cycles within Metzler’s inventory model

We revise Metzler??s well-known inventory model by developing a framework in which producers can either apply a simple but cheap extrapolative or a more sophisticated but expensive regressive forecasting rule to predict future sales. Producers are boundedly rational in the sense that they tend to select forecasting rules with a high evolutionary fitness. Using a mixture of analytical and numerical tools, we attempt to describe the characteristics of our model??s dynamical system. Our results suggest that the evolutionary competition between heterogeneous predictors may lead to irregular fluctuations in economic activity.     

Policy options for the UK

In 1973 the Department of Trade and Industry has published a commissioned study of the effects on Britain of the inward flow of foreign direct investment. The present article summarizes some of the conclusions of this report, but is not meant to be a review of it, as it is written by its principal author.     

Modeling differentiated quality standards in the agri-food sector: the case of meat trade in the enlarged EU

Quality standards play an increasingly important role in international agri-food trade, and their functioning as nontariff barriers to trade is widely discussed. We argue that food quality standards imposed by importing countries are more than just border measures and can have profound effects on the market structure of the exporting industry, thereby significantly influencing the supply response. We develop a stylized oligopoly model that accounts for compliance costs (fixed and variable) and investigate alternative policy options to explore different mechanisms an importing county may use to enhance the quality of its imports. The model explicitly recognizes the coexistence of complying and noncomplying firms, which is a situation often found in low-income countries where a small modern export-oriented segment invests in meeting foreign quality standards. We use the adjustment of the Polish meat sector to the tight EU food quality standards as an empirical example. The simulations show that a subsidy scheme can promote compliance with standards and can contribute to an upgrade of the industry in the exporting country, but its marginal effectiveness is diminishing.     

Did Georgia’s Post-Pipeline-Hack Gasoline-Tax Suspension Lower Prices?

Atlantic Economic Journal -