Mittlerer quadratischer Prognosefehler bei der Prognose des Abwicklungsergebnisses mittels der Chain-Ladder-Methode

Often in non-life insurance claims reserves are the largest position on the liability side of the balance sheet. The determination of adequate claims reserves in two consecutive accounting years leads to the so-called development result, which is defined as the difference of two successive predictors for the claims reserves. If the predictors for the claims reserves are unbiased the expected development result is equal to zero. However, since in claims reserving one predicts future payments the observed development result will in general deviate from the expected value. In the present paper we analyze this deviation. In an example we discuss the results.     

The evolving brand logic: a service-dominant logic perspective

The meanings of brand and branding have been evolving over the past several decades. This evolution is converging on a new conceptual logic, which views brand in terms of collaborative, value co-creation activities of firms and all of their stakeholders and brand value in terms of the stakeholders’ collectively perceived value-in-use. The authors argue that this new logic parallels and reflects the related, evolving service-dominant (S-D) logic in marketing. They provide an historical account of the branding literature, organize it into eras, and connect it to the evolution in marketing as captured by S-D logic. The analysis provides further support for the S-D logic of marketing and suggests a related research agenda for furthering the understanding of brand and branding. It also suggests that marketing managers might benefit from investing resources in building strong brand relationships with all of their stakeholders and a service-dominant firm philosophy built around brand value co-creation.     

How to hedge if the payment date is uncertain?

This paper investigates how firms should hedge price risk when payment dates are uncertain. We derive variance-minimizing strategies and show that the instrument choice is essential for this problem, similar to the choice between a strip and a stack hedge. The first setting concentrates on futures hedges, whereas the second allows for nonlinear derivatives. In both settings, firms should take positions in derivatives with different maturities simultaneously. We present an empirical analysis for commodities and exchange rates, showing that in both settings the optimal strategy clearly outperforms the commonly used heuristic strategies which consider only one hedging instrument at a time.     

Prognose des Abwicklungsergebnisses mittels Chain-Ladder-Verfahren für abhängige Run-Off-Portfolios

In the present paper we analyse how the estimators from Merz u. Wüthrich (2007) could be generalised to the case of N correlated run-off triangles. The simultaneous view on N correlated subportfolios is motivated by the fact, that in practice a run-off portfolio often has to be divided in subportfolios, so that the homogeneity assumption of the claims reserving method on each subportfolio is satisfied. We derive an explicit formula for the process-variance, the estimation-error and the prediction error made by the forecast for the claims development result with the Chain-Ladder method. We illustrate the results by an example.     

Standardization or localization? Executing corporate philanthropy in international firms

• Corporate social responsibility (CSR) has become a key component of a firm's reputation. The reputational vulnerabilities and pressure for CSR are perhaps greatest among international firms with business activities across many countries and cultures. Although the strategies of firms entering new markets have been well researched, the CSR component of the market entry decision has been largely ignored, despite its significant relationship with the financial performance of the firm. Further, previous research has largely considered CSR from an environmental performance point of view, and thus has focused on a minimum level of investment in CSR as opposed to the optimal form of the investment. Our paper seeks to address this gap by examining market entry decisions as they relate to corporate philanthropy.

Copyright © 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Bounds on the estimation error in the chain ladder method

Buchwalder et al. (2006) have illustrated that there are different approaches for the derivation of an estimate for the parameter estimation error in the distribution-free chain ladder reserving method. In this paper, we demonstrate that these approaches provide estimates that are close to each other for typical parameters. This is carried out by proving upper and lower bounds.     

A composite indicator model to assess natural disaster risks in industry on a spatial level

In the event of natural disasters, industrial production sites can be affected by both direct physical damage and indirect damage. The indirect damage, which often exceeds the direct ones in value, mainly arises from business interruptions resulting from the impairment of information and material flows as well as from domino effects in interlaced supply chains. The importance of industry for society and the domino effects often result in severe economic, social, and environmental consequences of industrial disasters making industrial risk management an important task for risk managers at the administrative level (e.g. civil protection authorities). Since the possible industrial disaster damage depends not only on hazard and exposure but also on the vulnerability of a system, an effective and efficient industrial risk management requires information about the system’s regionalized vulnerability. This paper presents a new methodology for structural industrial vulnerability assessment based on production factors that enables to assess the regional industrial disaster vulnerability. In order to capture industry-specific vulnerability factors and to account for the processes underlying regional industrial vulnerability, a two-stage approach is developed. This approach combines a composite indicator model to assess sector-specific vulnerability indices (V_s) with a new regionalization method. The composite indicator model is based on methodologies from the field of multicriteria decision analysis (MultiAttribute Value Theory) and the Decision-Making Trial and Evaluation Laboratory Method is applied to correct the (V_s) for interdependencies among the indicators. Finally, the developed approach is applied to an exemplar case study and the industrial vulnerability of 44 administrative districts in the German federal state of Baden-Wuerttemberg is assessed.     

THE SHADOW ECONOMY: ILLICIT WORK AND HOUSEHOLD PRODUCTION: A MICROANALYSIS OF WEST GERMANY

This microanalysis of the shadow economy is on informal family income achieving strategies. In particular we analyze both sexes' paid illicit work as well as unpaid work in household production based on the representative West German Sfb3–Secondary Occupation Survey 1984. We estimate the influence of various socioeconomic variables including a legal occupation. As a result, illicit work and household production "Do-It-Yourself" activities are important informal family income achieving strategies. The respective regional state of the formal economy or one's own activities in social networks is of greater importance for informal economic activities than an individual income from formal economic activities.     

RELATIVE INEQUALITY AND POVERTY IN GERMANY AND THE UNITED STATES USING ALTERNATIVE EQUIVALENCE SCALES

We use data from the Luxembourg Income Study to show the sensitivity of measures of relative economic well-being of persons in the U.S. and Germany using official equivalence scales and consumption-based country-specific equivalence scales developed for the two countries. Overall inequality and poverty levels are found not to be sensitive to the equivalence scale used. However, the official German equivalence scale yields quite different results from the others with respect to the relative income and poverty levels of vulnerable groups within the population, especially older single people.