房产税能否抑制实体经济"脱实向虚"——来自上海和重庆的经验分析

本文利用我国35个大中城市2006-2018年的平衡面板数据,基于上海和重庆在2011年实施的房产税试点政策,运用合成控制法检验房产税政策能否抑制实体经济"脱实向虚"发展的趋势.研究结果显示,房产税政策能够有效地遏制地区房地产业新增产值占GDP的比重的上升,促使实体企业回归主业,增加实体投资,实现促进实体经济朝着"脱虚返实"方向发展的作用.鉴于此,本文提出应加快推进房产税政策在全国范围内的实施,并在政府补贴、银行贷款等方面采取一系列配套措施鼓励实体企业进行更多的实体投资.     

Close relationship with the supervisor may impede employee creativity by suppressing vertical task conflict

Leader‐member exchange as a form of supportive leadership is expected to foster employee creativity. However, empirical evidence suggested this relationship is complex. This study attempts to address this complexity by proposing and testing a curvilinear mechanism, which attenuates the overall positive effect of LMX on creativity by transmitting a curvilinear indirect effect via vertical task conflict. Results drawn from a sample of 276 supervisor–subordinate dyads provided support for the hypothesized curvilinear indirect effect. Specifically, LMX was found to negatively influence employee creativity by suppressing vertical task conflict for subordinates in high‐quality LMX relationships, while the indirect effect was not significant for subordinates in low‐quality LMX relationships.     

The Effect of Fuel Price Changes on Fleet Demand for New Vehicle Fuel Economy

New vehicle purchases by private companies and government agencies, or ‘fleet’ buyers, represent a significant percentage of overall new vehicle sales in the United States. Yet little is known about fleet demand for new vehicle fuel economy including how it responds to fuel price changes. Using unique disaggregated data on fleet and household registrations of new vehicles from 2009 to 2016, we estimate how fleet demand for new vehicle fuel economy responds to fuel price changes. We find that fleet purchases of low fuel economy vehicles fall relative to high fuel economy vehicles when gasoline prices increase, a finding that is consistent with fleet buyers’ taking into account capitalization of fuel costs in the second‐hand market. Our estimates imply that raising gasoline prices by one dollar would increase fuel economy of new vehicles acquired by fleet buyers by 0.33 miles per gallon. We estimate a similar response for household buyers during the same period. This result justifies basing fuel economy responses to fuel cost changes on household data alone, an assumption widely used in the vehicle demand literature and the fuel economy valuation literature. We also find, however, that the response to fuel price changes varies across the types of fleet buyers: rental companies respond strongly to fuel price changes, whereas commercial and government buyers are insensitive. Our estimates imply that an increase in the federal gasoline tax would modestly increase fuel economy of vehicles bought by households and rental companies but would have little to no impact on fuel economy of vehicles bought by non‐rental companies and governments.     

Foreign direct investment subsidy in a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model with heterogeneous firms

This study analyzes the macroeconomic impacts of subsidies to attract multinational corporations when firms are determining whether to enter or how to serve foreign markets. We show that a small FDI subsidy scheme induces consumption gains and delivers short‐term welfare improvement for the FDI host country if firms differ in productivity. However, the subsidy generates a new problem and results in the wealth reallocation effect, leading to welfare deterioration for the host country in the long run. Moreover, we find that a subsidy program induces a welfare improvement for the host country if it is offered to all domestic producers instead of foreign producers only in the host country.     

目的国服务贸易限制政策是否阻碍了中国企业出口规模扩张?

根据经合组织统计的各国服务贸易限制政策条款,先对具体政策条款赋值,接下来加权得到衡量服务贸易限制的STRI指标,最终检验目的 国服务贸易限制对中国企业出口规模的影响.研究发现:在控制引力模型的其他变量以及企业-产品层面的特征变量后,目的 国服务贸易限制政策显著阻碍了中国企业出口规模扩张,且阻碍作用对一般贸易企业、大中型企业更明显.对影响机制而言,服务贸易限制政策造成的固定成本阻碍了企业出口的扩展边际,而引起的可变成本阻碍了企业出口的集约边际,其中,对集约边际的阻碍作用更大;进一步对集约边际分解发现,目的 国服务贸易限制政策降低了企业出口产品数量,但提高了企业出口产品价格.另外,拓展研究发现,目的 国数字化服务贸易开放能够缓解服务贸易限制政策对企业出口的阻碍作用.     

A hybrid information approach to predict corporate credit risk

This study proposes a hybrid information approach to predict corporate credit risk. In contrast to the previous literature that debates which credit risk model is the best, we pool information from a diverse set of structural and reduced‐form models to produce a model combination based on credit risk prediction. Compared with each single model, the pooled strategies yield consistently lower average risk prediction errors over time. We also find that while the reduced‐form models contribute more in the pooled strategies for speculative‐grade names and longer maturities, the structural models have higher weights for shorter maturities and investment grade names.     

Pricing Defaultable Bonds Using a Lévy Jump‐Diffusion Model

This paper uses a reduced‐form approach to derive a closed‐form pricing formula for defaultable bonds. The authors specify the default hazard rate as an affine function of multiple variables which follow the Lévy jump‐diffusion processes. Because such specification allows greater flexibility in the generation of a valid probability of default, their pricing model should be more accurate than the valuation models in traditional studies, which ignore the jump effects. This paper also proposes a new method for estimating the parameters in a Lévy Jump‐diffusion process. The real data from the Taiwanese bond market are used to illustrate how their model can be applied in practical situations. The authors compare the pricing results for the influential variables with no jump effects, with jump magnitudes following the normal distribution, and with jump magnitudes following the gamma distribution. The results reveal that the predictive ability is the best for the model with the jump components. The valuation model shown in this paper should help portfolio managers more accurately price defaultable bonds and more effectively hedge their portfolio holdings.     

如何增强员工凝聚力

众所周知,假如一个企业人心涣散,其发展必不长久。何志毅总裁在《金科玉律》刊首语中曾指出:企业盛衰转换,根本在于文化!而企业文化建设的终极目的,我认为就是增强员工凝聚力。那么,如何增强员工凝聚力呢?我试图从收入、工作满意度、亲和力、员工保障心理、个人发展和人事考核等六个方面分别阐述,结合这两年从事人力资源管理实践,谈谈我个人看法。一、收入人是经济性动物。因而,在人才流动过程中,经济因素必将占有很大比重。收入的多少,不仅仅可以体现为物化的东西,更重要的是对个人价值某种程度上的肯定,从而实现员工自我满足感。但是,纯粹…     

浅谈我国中小企业信用担保体系的问题及对策

以信用担保为中介的中小企业信用担保机构主要发展和成熟于欧美、日本等国家。20世纪90年代以来,我国各地迅速涌现各有特色的中小企业信用担保机构,创造了一定效益,但由于多种原因,也制约着其本身的进一步发展。究其原因,主要是我国信用担保体系建设尚不完善,还存在着这样那样的问题。本文从我国中小企业信用担保体系发展的现状入手,全面分析在建设信用担保体系中出现的各种问题,具体地指出完善我国中小企业信用担保体系建设措施,以此促进我国中小企业信用担保体系的不断完善与健康发展。     

上市公司非公允关联交易治理研究

非公允关联交易在我国上市公司中普遍存在,并对上市公司的业绩产生着重大影响。本文在分析上市公司非公允关联交易产生原因的基础上,从完善立法、首发审核、治理结构、信息披露、定价方法、独立审计等方面探讨了非公允关联交易的治理对策。