It is not just about paying your dues: Impact of generational cohort on active and passive union participation

The lack of a validated measure of active–passive union participation and a dearth of research into the relationship between generational cohort and union participation challenge union leaders to develop policies and practices to facilitate union renewal. We address these issues by (a) developing a multidimensional measure of union participation that captures both active and passive components, (b) using structural equation modelling to validate the measure within a nomological framework, and (c) investigating the impact of generational cohort on all paths in our framework. Data from members of a large American union confirm that generational cohort influences how union members participate in their union. The two‐factor measure developed in this study facilitates research into antecedents and outcomes of passive and active union participation. Our findings should also prove useful to unions seeking to increase participation within their membership, academics researching unions and generational cohort, and human resource practitioners operating in unionised environments.     

Time series copulas for heteroskedastic data

We propose parametric copulas that capture serial dependence in stationary heteroskedastic time series. We suggest copulas for first‐order Markov series, and then extend them to higher orders and multivariate series. We derive the copula of a volatility proxy, based on which we propose new measures of volatility dependence, including co‐movement and spillover in multivariate series. In general, these depend upon the marginal distributions of the series. Using exchange rate returns, we show that the resulting copula models can capture their marginal distributions more accurately than univariate and multivariate generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity models, and produce more accurate value‐at‐risk forecasts.     

Predicting Household Poverty: A Methodological Note with a Kenyan Example

Household surveys provide data that is used for identifying and measuring the poverty status of households and individuals. However, carrying out such surveys is expensive, especially in poor developing countries. Thus it is important to make maximum use of the available survey data in developing countries, especially in sub‐Saharan Africa, where such data are expensive to collect and analyse. This paper develops a simple method for using poverty indices derived from survey data for a given year, to predict poverty rates for subsequent periods without having to conduct a new household survey. We illustrate the workings of the method with data from Kenyan household surveys for 1994 and 1997.     

An Illuminating Exchange The Construction of Social Reality

A BSTRACT . In his The Construction of Social Reality , Searle presents an account of rights, responsibilities, obligations, duties, and similar entities in terms of the formula X counts as Y in context C , where " X " refers in the simplest case to some physical object or event and " Y " to the result of imposing upon X some deontic power or function. Smith attempts to show the limitations of this formula, focusing especially on the examples of contested property rights (where C is not uniquely defined), and of money in bank accounts and other phenomena (where no physical X -term is available). Searle responds to these criticisms, above all by pointing to the fact that some of the problems Smith raises are to be addressed not by an ontological analysis of social reality but rather through legal or political means.     

The Law and Economics of Marriage Contracts

Growth in property ownership has raised the stakes in the distribution of financial assets on divorce. Given high risks of marital failure, this has stimulated the demand for private ordering through enforceable marriage contracts. This paper surveys the existing law and economics literature and legal practice to consider the state of knowledge on the economic theory, scope and limits of written nuptial agreements.     

Economic Development Indicators as Determinants of Medal Winning at the Sydney Olympics: An Extreme Bounds Analysis

This paper examines the variables that determine the performance of countries at the Olympic Games as measured by a weighted sum of the medals won at the Sydney 2000 Games. While previous studies have identified the importance of a country's economic size and the resources available to sport, this paper examines nine more variables including the number of athletes representing each nation and some development indicators. Based on 2310 regressions, both traditional and restricted extreme bounds analysis show that only two variables are robust: the number of athletes and national expenditure on health. Thus, the final model recognises four explanatory variables that include these two as well as GDP and population.     

Hedging,Financing and Investment Decisions: A Simultaneous Equations Framework

We empirically investigate the interactions among hedging, financing, and investment decisions. We argue that the way in which hedging affects a firm's financing and investing decisions differs for firms with different growth opportunities. We find that high growth firms increase their investment, but not leverage, by hedging. However, we also find that firms with few investment opportunities use derivatives to increase their leverage.     

Using Medicare data for short-run projections of the elderly population.

As the elderly population of the United States grows in absolute number and as a proportion of total population, accurate projections of that population become increasingly important for sound policy decisions. Cohort component techniques are typically used for state and local projections of the elderly population, but are often outdated or even nonexistent for many local areas. This paper suggests an alternative approach, based on Medicare data and simple projection techniques. Projections for several base periods and projection horizons are made for all states and for counties in Florida and are compared with actual Medicare enrollment. On the basis of these comparisons it appears that Medicare data and simple projection techniques can produce very useful short-run projections of the elderly population for states and local areas.