Choosing sides in the trilemma: international financial cycles and structural change in developing economies

ABSTRACT

This paper analyzes the impact of international financial cycles on structural change in developing economies. It is argued that the impact of these cycles depends on the specific combination of macroeconomic and industrial policies adopted by the developing economy. The cases of Brazil and Argentina are contrasted with those of Korea and China. In the Asian economies, macroeconomic policy has been a complementary tool along with industrial policy to foster the diversification of production and capabilities. Inversely, in the case of the Latin American countries, long periods of real exchange rate (RER) appreciation, combined with the weaknesses (or absence) of industrial policies, contributed to the loss of capabilities and lagging behind.     

Forecasting inflation and tracking monetary policy in the euro area: does national information help?

The ECB target is set in terms of the year on year growth rate of the euro area Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices. Nonetheless, a good deal of attention is given to national data by market analysts when they try to anticipate monetary policy moves. In this paper we use the Generalized Dynamic Factor Model to develop a set of core inflation indicators that, combining national data with area wide information, allow us to answer two related questions. The first is whether country specific data actually bear any relevance for the future path of area wide price growth, over and above that already contained in area wide data. The second is whether to track ECB monetary policy decisions it is useful to take into account national information and not only area wide statistics. Within our empirical framework we find that once area wide information is properly taken into account the contribution of national idiosyncratic developments is negligible.     

Interactions on Job and Employee Effort within Italian Social Cooperatives

The aim of this paper is to analyse, using a standard ordered probit model, the correlates of worker effort within Italian social cooperatives. The main assumption of the paper is that employee effort depends not only on standard variables that explain effort but also on employees’ interpersonal relationships on the job. The analysis adds a new piece of evidence to the extant literature on effort, i.e. the impact of on-the-job interpersonal relationships on effort. The results show that there exists a positive correlation between the quantity and quality of worker relations within the social enterprise with customers, volunteers, colleagues and superiors and effort.     

Determinants of the growth aspiration: a quantitative study of Venezuelan entrepreneurs

The article examines the determinants of the growth aspiration of Venezuelan entrepreneurs. We use the GEM database and build an econometric model based on a set of exogenous variables grouped into three large categories: contextual or environmental factors, individual factors and business variables. Given the Venezuelan specific characteristics, we place a particular focus on understanding the differences between entrepreneurs belonging or not to the BoP. The primary findings of this work are the identification of the variables that explain growth aspiration, namely, belonging to the BoP, gender, education, motivation and years of study and some additional variables where individual factors interact with the contextual factor BoP. The second finding is that there are significant differences for the entrepreneurs belonging and not belonging to the BoP, with a threshold where the entrepreneurs of the BoP become averse to continuing to aspire to growth. Practical and policy implications are elaborated with the results.     

Formal volunteering and self-perceived health. Causal evidence from the UK-SILC

The paper assesses the causal relationship between formal volunteering and individual health. The econometric analysis employs data provided by the Income and Living Conditions Survey for the United Kingdom carried out by the European Union’s Statistics (UK-SILC) in 2006. Based on 2SLS, treatment effect and recursive bivariate probit models, and religious participation as instrument variable, and controlling for social and cultural capital, our results show a positive effect of formal volunteering on self-perceived health.     

Structural social capital and mental health: a panel study

ABSTRACT

The link between social relations and psychological wellbeing is well established in sociological and mental health studies. Since the beginning of the 2000s, this link has been garnering new attention and interest in economic and public health studies. Almost twenty years of empirical studies testing this relationship have established contrasting results for two main reasons. First, the majority of the studies are based on cross-sectional data, leaving out endogeneity and heterogeneity problems; second, mental health measurements are often discordant from each other. This study investigates the relationship between structural social capital and individual self-rated mental health using five waves of the British Household Panel Survey from 1991 to 1995 (unbalanced panel N = 44,684). We take into account the heterogeneity and endogeneity issues and implement fixed effects and lag-dependent variable estimations. Moreover, we used different methodologies to measure mental health as a robustness check. Our findings show the existence of a negative relationship between being both a member of and active in an organization and worse mental health. In addition, being active within an organization in the previous year has a negative effect on worse mental health in the following year.     

The role of knowledge variety and intensity for regional innovation

This paper analyses the effect of variety and intensity of knowledge on the innovation of regions. Employing data for Swedish functional regions, the paper tests the role of the variety (related and unrelated) and intensity of (1) internal knowledge generated within the region and also (2) external knowledge networks flowing into the region in explaining regional innovation, as measured by patent applications. The empirical analysis provides robust evidence that both the variety and intensity of internal and external knowledge matter for regions’ innovation. When it comes to variety, related variety of knowledge plays a superior role.