Using partial identification methods to estimate the effect of violence against women on their children’s health outcomes

A growing literature in economics seeks to estimate the costs of violence against women by examining, for example, its impact on the health outcomes of their children. However, it is difficult to assign a causal interpretation to these nonexperimental studies due to the presence of unobservable characteristics affecting violence and health outcomes simultaneously. The lack of credible instrumental variables applicable in several countries further limits our knowledge. I address this gap by using new partial identification methods to estimate the relative size of the unobservables needed to eliminate the estimated effects in nonexperimental studies. I also expand the external validity of the analysis by using data from five standardized nationally representative household surveys in Latin America. Consistent with previous studies, cross-sectional estimates show large negative associations between violence against women and an array of child health outcomes. However, when accounting for omitted variable bias, at best, two-thirds of the estimates remain robust and they are concentrated on the outcomes with the largest cross-sectional estimated impacts.     

Aid volatility and poverty traps

This paper studies the impact of aid volatility in a two-period model where production may occur with either a traditional or a modern technology. Public spending is productive and “time to build” requires expenditure in both periods for the modern technology to be used. The possibility of a poverty trap induced by high aid volatility is first examined in a benchmark case where taxation is absent. The analysis is then extended to account for self insurance (taking the form of a first-period contingency fund) financed through taxation. An increase in aid volatility is shown to raise the optimal contingency fund. But if future aid also depends on the size of the contingency fund (as a result of a moral hazard effect on donors' behavior), the optimal policy may entail no self insurance.     

The KwaZulu-Natal Income Dynamics Study (KIDS) third wave: methods,first findings and an agenda for future research

The panel study known as the KwaZulu-Natal Income Dynamics Study (KIDS) has been extended by a new wave of data collection conducted in 2004. This third wave of the study interviewed 865 households containing core adult members from 760 of the households contacted in 1993. It also conducted interviews in next-generation households that have split off from the parental households and in the current households of children who have been fostered out. The study finds that the proportion of people aged 20–44 dying between the second and third waves was nearly three times the proportion dying between the first two waves. The pattern of income distribution is one of increasing poverty and inequality since 1993, although the partial reversal of these trends in the post-1998 period is hopeful, as are signs of relative prosperity among those who established independent next-generation households. In addition, access to services has improved.     

Institutionalized Resistance to Organizational Change: Denial, Inaction and Repression

An extensive theoretical and research literature on organizational change and its implementation has been accumulating over the past fifty years. It is customary in this literature to find resistance to change mentioned as an inevitable consequence of organizational change initiatives. Yet there has been little discussion of the nature and forms of resistance that is institutionalized in organizational structure and processes. Furthermore, organization development perspectives on organizational change address management-initiated change, but not change proposed by advocates for the powerless and disadvantaged. Focussing on institutionalized resistance from the standpoint of the advocate of fundamental change, this discussion proposes a typology consisting of a sequence of forms of active resistance to change, from denial through inaction to repression. The typology is illustrated by referring to responses of organizational decision makers to the efforts of employment equity change agents to address issues of systemic discrimination in the work place. The purpose of the typology is to assist change advocates, such as equality seekers, to name, analyze and think strategically about the institutionalized resistance they encounter, and about effective responses to the resistance.     

Optimal taxation and growth with public goods and costly enforcement

This paper studies optimal direct and indirect taxation in an endogenous growth framework with a productive public good and costly tax collection. Optimal (growth-maximizing) tax rules are derived under exogenous collection costs. The optimal direct–indirect tax ratio is shown to be negatively related to the administrative costs of collecting these taxes, as documented in cross-country data. This result also holds under endogenous collection costs (with these costs inversely related to administrative spending on tax enforcement), but for these to generate significant effects on tax collection requires implausibly high degrees of efficiency in spending, or the allocation of a large fraction of resources to tax enforcement. Depending on how it is financed, the latter policy may entail adverse effects on growth. Improving ‘tax culture’ and the sense of civic duty through greater budgetary transparency may be a more effective policy to improve tax collection and promote economic growth.     

Fiscal policy and endogenous growth with public infrastructure

Optimal tax and spending allocation rules are derived in anendogenous growth model where raw labor must be educated tobecome productive and infrastructure services affect the schoolingtechnology. Growth- and welfare-maximizing solutions are comparedunder nonseparable utility in consumption and government-providedservices. Among other results, it is shown that the optimalshare of spending on infrastructure depends not only on productionelasticities but also on the quality of schooling and the degreeto which infrastructure services affect the production of educatedlabor. Congestion costs in education raise the optimal shareof spending on infrastructure.     

Exchange market reform,inflation, and fiscal deficits

This paper examines the effects of exchange market reform on inflation and quasifiscal deficits in developing countries. The first part presents the conceptual framework, which identifies a variety of implicit taxes and subsidies that must be taken into account (in addition to implicit taxes on exports, as emphasized by Pinto (1991)) in assessing the fiscal and inflationary effects of exchange market reform. A formula that attempts to capture explicitly these taxes and subsidies is derived. The second part applies the formula to six countries (Guyana, India, Jamaica, Kenya, Sierra Leone, and Sri Lanka). The results suggest that exchange market reform may lead to a significant reduction in reliance on the inflation tax.     

Employment effects of stabilization policies

This paper studies the effects of a stabilization program based on a reduction in the devaluation rate in an optimizing model with capital controls, minimum wages for unskilled labor, an informal sector, and public production of intermediate inputs. Perfect mobility across sectors of the unskilled labor force prevents the emergence of unemployment for that category of labor, but skilled unemployment prevails in equilibrium. The analysis highlights the role of endogenous labor market segmentation in assessing the wage and employment effects of stabilization policies.     

Exchange restrictions and devaluation crises

This paper develops a model of devaluation cycles for an economy in which foreign exchange transactions take place through both an official and a parallel market. The exchange rate differential determines the propensity to under-invoice exports. The authorities are assumed to follow a devaluation rule that relates official parity changes to the level of reserves. The analysis shows that such a rule leads to periodic cycles of erosion and recovery of foreign reserves, which bear some similarities to recent devaluation episodes in developing countries.