ECONOMIC TRANSITION AND LABOUR MARKET DYNAMICS IN CHINA: AN INTERPRETATIVE SURVEY OF THE ‘TURNING POINT’ DEBATE

Has the Chinese economy approached the ‘Lewisian turning point’ that marks the ending of the initial phase of industrial transformation fuelled by surplus labour? In this paper we undertake an interpretative survey of the literature on this issue, in the context of China's labour market conditions prior to the reforms and structural change of the past three decades. The available evidence is mixed, and our assessment makes a strong case for probing institutional constraints to labour mobility from an economy‐wide perspective, going beyond the confines of the rural economy.     

Foreign direct investment in crisis and recovery: lessons from the 1997–1998 Asian crisis

Is foreign direct investment more resilient at the onset of an economic crisis and the subsequent economic collapse in a host country compared to other forms of foreign capital inflows? Are affiliates of multinational enterprises in a crisis‐hit country better equipped to withstand a crisis and aid the recovery process by readjusting their investment, production and sales strategies compared to local firms? This article examines these issues in the context of the 1997–1998 economic crisis in Thailand, Malaysia, Indonesia, Korea and the Philippines. The findings suggest that foreign direct investment was a relatively stable source of foreign capital in the crisis context and that the affiliates of multinational enterprises were instrumental in ameliorating the severity of economic collapse and facilitating the recovery process.     

Nondiscretionary residential water use: the impact of habits and water‐efficient technologies

Several studies published in the last few decades have demonstrated a low price‐elasticity for residential water use. In particular, it has been shown that there is a quantity of water demanded that remains constant regardless of prices and other economic factors. In this research, we characterise residential water demand based on a Stone‐Geary utility function. This specification is not only theory‐compatible but can also explicitly model a minimum level of consumption not dependent on prices or income. This is described as minimum threshold or nondiscretionary water use. Additionally, the Stone‐Geary framework is used to model the subsistence level of water consumption that is dependent on the temporal evolution of consumer habits and stock of physical capital. The main aim of this study is to analyse the impact of water‐saving habits and water‐efficient technologies on residential water demand, while additionally focusing attention on nondiscretionary uses. This is informed by an empirical application using data from a survey conducted among residents of Brisbane City Council, Australia. The results will be especially useful in the design of water tariffs and other water‐saving policies.     

Book Reviews

Ian Chalmers and Vedi R. Hadiz (eds) (1997), The Politics of Economic Development in Indonesia, Routledge, London, pp. xxx + 269. A$155.00.

Geoff Forrester (ed.) (1999), Post-Soeharto Indonesia: Renewal or Chaos? Institute of Southeast Asian Studies, Singapore, and KITLV Press, Leiden, pp. 373. Cloth: S$49.90/US$32.90; paper: S$29.95/US$19.95/A$29.95.

Corden, Max (1999), The Asian Crisis: Is There a Way Out?, Institute of Southeast Asian Studies, Singapore, pp. 82. S$19.90/US$12.90.

Karl D. Jackson (ed.) (1999), Asian Contagion: The Causes and Consequences of a Financial Crisis, Westview Press, Boulder CO, pp. xvi + 312. Cloth: US$75.00; Paper: US$30.00.

H.W. Arndt and Hal Hill (1999), Southeast Asia's Economic Crisis: Origins, Lessons and the Way Forward, Institute of Southeast Asian Studies, Singapore, pp. 192. Cloth: S$66.90/US$44.90; paper: S$28.00/US$17.90/A$29.95.

Manuel F. Montes (1998), The Currency Crisis in Southeast Asia: Update, Institute of Southeast Asian Studies, Singapore, pp. xl + 62. Cloth: S$36.00 /US$24.00; paper: S$25.90/US$17.90.     

Foreign Investment in East Asia: A Survey

This article updates the May 1989 literature survey on foreign direct investment (FDI) in the East Asian region published in this journal. Following an overview of trends of FDI in the 1990s, it focuses on three key issues: the impact of the recent Asian economic crisis on FDI inflow relative to other forms of capital inflows; the link between FDI and trade; and technology transfer and adaptation. It is too early to discern the implications of the crisis for host-country policies and investment decisions of multinational corporations, but the indications are that FDI will continue to play a pivotal role in economic transformation, and in regional and global economic integration.     

Global Production Sharing and Sino-US Trade Relations

This paper examines Sino-US trade relations, focusing on the ongoing process of global production sharing, involving splitting of the production process into discrete activities that are then allocated across countries, and the resulting trade complementarities between the two countries in world manufacturing trade. The results suggest that the Sino--US trade imbalance is basically a structural phenomenon resulting from the pivotal role played by China as the final assembly centre in East Asia-centered global production networks.     

An analysis of demand and supply factors in agricultural exports from developing Asian countries

Zusammenfassung Eine Analyse von Angebots- und Nachfragefaktoren bei Agrarexporten aus asiatischen Entwicklungsl?ndern. — Bei der Ausarbeitung ihrer Ausfuhrpolitik legen viele Entwicklungsl?nder vor allem auf die F?rderung von Industrieexporten Wert, w?hrend sie den M?glichkeiten kontinuierlicher Entwicklung und Diversifizierung der Ausfuhr von Agrarprodukten und anderen Rohstoffen nur wenig Aufmerksamkeit schenken. Die Wahl dieser Politik ist haupts?chlich aus dem traditionellen Pessimismus hinsichtlich der Exporte von Grundstoffen entstanden, der für eine auf Exporterfolge ausgerichtete Angebotspolitik wenig Raum lie\. Hier wird nun diese pessimistische Haltung an Hand der Exporterfahrungen von sieben asiatischen L?ndern, die traditionelle Agrarprodukte ausführen, überprüft. Die Ergebnisse zeigen, da\ die Exportleistung einzelner L?nder st?rker von ihrer Angebotspolitik als von ?nderungen in der Weltnachfrage bestimmt wird.

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Résumé Une analyse des facteurs de demande et de l'offre pour les exportations agricoles des pays de l’Asie en voie de développement. — En formulant la politique d'exportation, beaucoup de pays en voie de développement attachent une grande valeur à la promotion de l’exportation des produits industriels pendant qu’ils paient une attention insuffisante aux opportunités pour un développement continu et une diversification des exportations agricoles (ou d'autres matières premières). Cette politique s’est développée principalement d’un pessimisme qui existe depuis longtemps à l’égard des exportations premières et laisse peu de place pour des politiques de l’offre avec lesquelles on peut stimuler les exportations. Il est le but de cette étude d’examiner cette vue pessimiste à l’égard de l’expérience des exportations de 7 pays asiatiques qui exportent traditionnellement des produits agricoles. Les résultats montrent que les politiques de l’offre ont une plus grande importance que des changements de la demande mondiale pour la performance des exportations des pays individuels.

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Resumen Un análisis de factores de demanda y oferta en las exportaciones agropecuarias de países en desarrollo asiáticos. — En la formulación de la politica de exportaciones muchos paises en desarrollo ponen gran énfasis en la promotion de exportaciones manufactureras, mientras que prestan poca atención a las oportunidades para continuar desarrollando y diversificando las exportaciones agropecuarias (y otras primarias). Esta decisión de politica nace generalmente del traditional pesimismo frente a las exportaciones primarias, que déjà poco espacio para que medidas en favor de la oferta tengan éxito en fomentar las exportaciones. La intención de esta trabajo es examinar este enfoque pesimista a la luz de la experiencia exportadora de siete países asiáticos que tradicionalmente exportan productos agropecuarios. Los resultados sugieren que, al determinar la performance exportadora de un pais, las politicas en favor de la oferta adquieren mayor peso que los cambios en la demanda mundial.

     

Best-performing US mutual fund families from 1993 to 2008: Evidence from a novel two-stage DEA model for efficiency decomposition

When analyzing relative performance, especially at the institutional level, the traditional data envelopment analysis (DEA) models do not recognize vastly different and important activities as separate functions and therefore cannot identify which function may be the main source of inefficiency. We propose a novel two-stage DEA model that decomposes the overall efficiency of a decision-making unit into two components and demonstrate its applicability by assessing the relative performance of 66 large mutual fund families in the US over the period 1993–2008. By decomposing the overall efficiency into operational management efficiency and portfolio management efficiency components, we reveal the best performers, the families that deteriorated in performance, and those that improved in their performance over the sample period. We also make frontier projections for poorly performing mutual fund families and highlight how the portfolio managers have managed their funds relative to the others during financial crisis periods.     

Vulnerability to a Currency Crisis: Lessons from the Asian Experience

Are currency crises caused by manias and panics in financial markets, or by unsustainable deteriorations in domestic macroeconomic conditions? This question is explored in the context of the recent Asian currency crisis. The theoretical concept of vulnerability is used to identify three early‐warning indicators of susceptibility to a currency crisis: rapid accumulation of mobile capital; domestic lending booms; and overvalued exchange rates. It is shown that the crisis and noncrisis countries of Asia may be distinguished empirically, using these indicators, over the decade preceding the crisis. This exercise provides convincing evidence that the crisis emanated largely from domestic macroeconomic conditions.     

Capital Inflows and the Real Exchange Rate: A Comparative Study of Asia and Latin America

The nexus of real exchange rate (RER) and capital inflows is examined through a comparative analysis of the experiences of emerging market economies in Asian and Latin America during the period 1985‐2000. It is found that the degree of appreciation in RER associated with capital inflow is uniformly much higher in Latin American countries compared to their Asian counterparts, despite the fact that the latter experienced far greater foreign capital inflows relative to the size of the economy. The econometric evidence suggests that both the composition of capital flows and differences in the degree of response of RER to capital flows matter in explaining these contrasting experiences. While RER appreciation is a phenomenon predominantly associated with other (non‐FDI) forms of capital inflows (OCFW), a given level of OCFW brings about a far greater degree of appreciation of the real exchange rate in Latin America where the importance of these flows in total capital inflow is also far greater. On the policy front, Asian countries seem to have used fiscal contraction and nominal exchange rate adjustment more effectively to cushion the RER against the appreciation pressure of capital inflows. There is, however, no evidence to suggest that sterilised intervention can generate a lasting impact on the real exchange rate.