中国水稻加工环节成本结构及影响因素分析

［目的］“产业兴旺”是乡村振兴战略中的重要内容，探究中国水稻加工环节成本结构及影响因素，对促进我国农业一、二、三产业的融合，实现农业价值链转型升级，提升我国农产价值链竞争力具有重要的意义。［方法］通过微观调研数据，构建超越对数成本函数和要素需求函数，采用似不相关回归法（Seemingly Unrelated Regression）实证分析我国水稻加工厂的成本及要素投入的影响因素。［结果］（1）稻米加工厂存在规模报酬经济，扩大规模可以降低稻米加工平均成本。（2）建立品牌、与农户形成合同关系、鼓励多元主体经营、公司成立时间、企业能够获得政府支持对降低加工厂的平均加工成本具有正向显著影响。（3）建立品牌、与稻农签订合同、企业负责人的年龄、受教育年限越高对提高加工厂资本投入，促进结构升级具有显著影响。［结论］应采取相关政策措施鼓励稻米加工产扩大加工规模，与上下游形成更为紧密的利益共同体，加强稻米加工企业的品牌意识进而提高我国稻米加工产业的成本竞争力，并鼓励具有更为丰富管理经验、接受更高教育水平的管理者担任企业负责人，在促进我国稻米加工行业的升级转型的同时，提高我国稻米副产品的深度开发利用。     

International trade of GMO-related agricultural products

This paper examines the international trade of a variety of genetically modified (GM) food products over a 27-year period (1984–2011) with data from the United Nations using the tools of social network analysis. The results indicate that each of the different crops have a distinctive pattern of trade that has changed over time due to a number of different factors. Also, trade in agricultural commodities became more diversified over time, dominated less by the United States and other nations central in the trade networks and trade in the individual GM crops was stable over time. Countries maintained their trading partners for specific crops, despite the adoption of the genetically modified varieties. The economic implications of these results are discussed for specific countries.     

How is Benevolent Leadership Linked to Employee Creativity? The Mediating Role of Leader–Member Exchange and the Moderating Role of Power Distance Orientation

Previous research has shown that virtuous leader behavior in the form of benevolent leadership has considerable impact on employee creativity. However, little is known as to how and under what conditions these constructs are linked. In the current research, we proposed and tested a moderated mediation model positing leader–member exchange (LMX) as a mediator, and employee power-distance orientation as a moderator of this relationship. Two studies were conducted to test our hypothesized model. In Study 1, repeated measured data collected from 284 Chinese employees in an information technology company demonstrated that benevolent leadership had a lagged effect on LMX. In Study 2, analyses of multisource and lagged data from 391 Chinese employees in 42 research and development teams, and their direct supervisors indicated that benevolent leadership was positively related to supervisor-rated employee creativity via LMX. In addition, the relationship between benevolent leadership and LMX was stronger for employees high in power-distance orientation. Theoretical implications of benevolent leadership’s research and practical contributions concerning promoting creativity in organizations where benevolent leaders prevail are also discussed.     

我国“一带一路”沿线地区风险投资时空分布及影响因素研究

深入分析我国“一带一路”沿线地区风险投资时空格局及影响因素，有助于促进创新创业与企业发展、提高区域科技创新水平。运用空间分析方法和空间计量模型，对2003-2018年我国“一带一路”沿线139个城市风险投资的时空分布特征及影响因素进行分析，结果表明：①沿线地区的风险投资发展具有不均衡性，呈现为沿海高、西部低的分异格局；②风险投资的全局自相关系数均为正，呈现出明显的空间集聚特征；③风险投资机构数、国家高新区数量、风险投资退出、政府引导基金发展、财政科技支出对区域风险投资具有显著促进作用，环境污染对风险投资有一定抑制作用。随着ESG投资理念逐渐获得认可，沿线地区可以通过提升绿色发展水平促进风险投资发展。     

A cost-effectiveness analysis of revaccination and catch-up strategies with the 23-valent pneumococcal polysaccharide vaccine (PPV23) in older adults in Japan

Objective: In Japan, the National Immunization Program (NIP) includes PPV23 as the primary vaccination for adults and catch-up cohorts. The Japanese Association for Infectious Diseases recommends revaccination for older adults who received primary vaccination ≥5 years earlier. The cost-effectiveness of adding revaccination and/or continuing catch-up vaccination in the NIP was evaluated from the public payer perspective in Japan.

Methods: The Markov model included five health states: no pneumococcal disease, invasive pneumococcal diseases (IPD), non-bacteremic pneumococcal pneumonia (NBPP), post-meningitis sequelae, and death. Cohorts of adults aged 65–95 were followed until age 100 or death: 2014 cohort (aged 65–95, vaccinated: 2014); 2019 cohort (aged 65: 2019); and 2019 catch-up cohort (aged 70–100: 2019, unvaccinated: 2014). Strategies included: (1) vaccinate 2014 and 2019 cohorts; (2) vaccinate 2014 and 2019 cohorts and revaccinate both; (3) strategy 1 and vaccinate 2019 catch-up cohort; (4) strategy 2 and vaccinate 2019 catch-up cohort; and (5) strategy 4 and revaccinate 2019 catch-up cohort. Parameters were retrieved from global and Japanese sources, costs and QALYs discounted at 2%, and incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICERs) estimated.

Results: Strategy 1 had the highest number of IPD and NBPP cases, and strategy 5 the lowest. Strategies 3–5 dominated strategy 1 and strategy 2 was cost-effective compared to strategy 1 (ICER: ¥1,622,153 per QALY gained). At a willingness-to-pay threshold of ¥5 million per QALY gained, strategy 2 was cost-effective and strategies 3–5 were cost-saving compared to strategy 1.

Conclusions: Strategies including revaccination, catch-up, or both were cost-effective or cost-saving in comparison to no revaccination and no catch-up. Results can inform future vaccine policies and programs in Japan.     

河南省农业生态旅游产业可持续发展评价研究

[目的]河南农业生态旅游作为一种可持续发展的旅游形式,为河南的经济发展作为了重要贡献。对河南农业生态旅游产业可持续发展进行评价研究,是促进农业生态旅游可持续健康发展的重要保证。[方法]文章通过实地调研构建河南农业生态旅游产业可持续发展评价指标体系,运用层次分析法,确定指标权重,结合专家评分法,对各项评价指标打分,并计算河南农业生态旅游产业可持续发展的综合得分,结合农业生态旅游产业可持续发展评价标准,得出目前河南农业生态旅游产业可持续发展水平。[结果]河南农业生态旅游产业可持续发展评价得分为72.45,处于基本可持续发展阶段,并对当前河南农业生态旅游发展现状和存在的农业生态旅游意识淡薄、旅游产品特色不明显、缺少政府资金扶持和缺乏经营管理人才等问题进行了分析。[结论]基于上述问题,提出了提高环保意识、走可持续发展之路;开发特色原生态旅游产品;加强政府支持和引导;加强专业培训,打造专业队伍等对策。     

Communication and Comovement: Evidence from Online Stock Forums

We study investor communication and stock comovement using a novel data set from an active online stock forum in China. We find substantial comovement among the returns of a stock and its “related stocks,” which are frequently discussed in the subforum dedicated to the given stock. Comovement is greater when the discussion of related stocks is more intensive. Further, the effect of communication on comovement is stronger for stocks associated with higher information uncertainty. Codiscussed stocks are more actively traded and experience more correlated trading. A trading strategy that exploits communication‐driven comovement generates abnormal returns. Our findings highlight the impact of investor communication on asset comovement.     

Structural transformation in emerging economies: leading sectors and the balanced growth hypothesis

The paper uses the World Input-Output Database to address patterns of structural transformation in BRIC countries, Indonesia, South Korea, Mexico and Turkey. Sectoral drivers of aggregate labour productivity growth, and the relative importance of within-sector versus employment reallocation effects on aggregate labour productivity growth, are evaluated using growth accounting decomposition methods. Decomposition results are used to assess how patterns of structural transformation relate to macroeconomic performance in terms of aggregate labour productivity, output and employment growth. Together with the construction of ‘Hirschman compliance indices’, decomposition results are also used to shed light on the balanced versus unbalanced growth debates. The paper goes on to assess the extent of complementarities between manufacturing and information and communications technology-intensive advanced services through intermediate inputs, comparing the eight emerging countries with G7 countries over time.     

Further Mining the Predictability of Moving Averages: Evidence from the US Stock Market

Most studies on the predictability of moving average (MA) technical analysis use the discrete (buy/sell) trading recommendations. However, it is possibly incomplete or unreliable to explore the predictability of MA by only employing its generated trading signals. To further explore the forecastability of MA, we study its measurable impact on the stock market returns by using a conventional predictive regression framework. Our empirical study on the US stock market with respect to more detailed price information finds, (i) that the proposed predictor, MADP (MA based on daily prices) shows significant predictability in‐ and out‐of‐sample, and significantly outperforms the historical average (HA) benchmark as well as the MA based on monthly prices, (ii) that the predictability of MADP centers on the short‐term lags (within the most recent 10 days) and disappears when lags are beyond 20 days, and (iii) that the economic evaluation of the portfolios based on trading strategies confirms the superior performance of MADP with short‐term lags against the benchmark even though considering transaction costs.     

Do ongoing networks block out new friends? Reconciling the embeddedness constraint dilemma on new alliance partner addition

Research Summary: This study addresses a theoretical dilemma regarding how alliance network constraint (reflected by network cohesion) affects a firm’s alliance formation with new partners. Using a network pluralism approach, we separate a firm’s ego alliance network into two activity‐based networks—an exploratory network and an exploitative network—based on the primary value chain activity involved in each alliance. We argue that the cohesion of exploratory or exploitative networks has an inverted U‐shaped effect on the addition of new partners in the same activity‐based network, and a positive effect on the addition of new partners in the other network. Results based on data from the biotechnology industry largely support our predictions with one exception. Our study contributes to both scholarly understanding of network embeddedness and alliance practice. Managerial Summary: The structure of firms’ ongoing alliance networks may have paradoxical implications for their efforts to search for and form alliance with new partners. That is, when a firm’s alliance partners are tightly connected with each other, the cohesive network tends to both encourage and impede the focal firm to add new partners. We resolve this dilemma by showing that when a firm is deeply entrenched in a cohesive alliance network conducting a certain type of activities (e.g., R&D activities), it may not easily add new R&D alliance partners. However, it may still be able to escape from the cohesive R&D alliance network by seeking new partners conducting other activities (e.g., manufacturing activities).