Interest-only and principal-only mortgage strips as interest-rate contingent claims

Interest-only (IO) and principal-only (PO) mortgage strips are valued in a stochastic interest-rate environment. The prepayment rate of the underlying mortgages is affected by two considerations not present in the pure financially rational model: (1) The property owner's holding period is assumed to follow a Gamma distribution, resulting in the possibility of prepayment due to the sale of the property (i.e., prepayment that is too early based on market interest rates); and (2) borrowers are assumed to face heterogeneous transaction costs related to refinancing the existing mortgage, and delay refinancing when market conditions make it optimal to do so (refinancing too late). Properties of IO/PO strips are identified by the finite difference method.     

Valuing and hedging fixed rate mortgage commitments

A fixed rate loan commitment that is binding on the lender but not on the loan applicant is equivalent to a put option. This article uses the Black-Scholes option pricing model to establish a value for fixed rate loan commitments and to derive the hedge ratio for the lending institution to hedge the interest rate risk associated with the commitments in the FHLMC forward market for mortgages. The effectiveness of the resulting hedge is tested in a simulation, where it is found that the result is a 71% reduction in the variance of the value of the lender's gain or loss associated with the commitment period.     

Valuing Fixed-Income Options and Mortgage-Backed Securities with Alternative Term Structure Models

To value mortgage-backed securities and options on fixed-income securities, it is necessary to make assumptions regarding the term structure of interest rates. We assume that the multi-factor fixed parameter term structure model accurately represents the actual term structure of interest rates, and that the values of mortgage-backed securities and discount bond options derived from such a term structure model are correct. Differences in the prices of interest rate derivative securities based on single-factor term structure models are therefore due to pricing bias resulting from the term structure model. The price biases that result from the use of single-factor models are compared and attributed to differences in the underlying models and implications for the selection of alternative term structure models are considered.     

Realisations of Venture Capital Investments: The Case of Management Buy-outs in the UK

One of the most rapidly developing sectors of the financial services industry in the UK has been venture capital, and with it the growth of management buy-outs. As these markets have matured, increasing attention is being paid to issues associated with the realisation of gains for both institutions and equity-holding management. This article seeks to contribute to this area by examining the issues involved in the realisation of investments in management buy-outs. Based on detailed interviews with 24 managers of buy-outs which have exited, and on information drawn from the Centre for Management Buy-out Research database, the article considers the relative merits of flotations, trade sales, capital restructurings, secondary buy-outs, share redemptions etc. The article also addresses the agency cost issues involved in controlling buy-outs to enable institutions to achieve realisation of their investments at a price and timing which enable their targets to be met.     

Posterior predictive p-values for classical null hypotheses

We show that for the purpose of testing a classical null hypothesis the posterior predictive check of Rubin (1984) may be inadequate. This inadequacy is caused by the estimation of the nuisance parameters under the null hypothesis. We show that this problem can be solved if the parameters are estimated under the encompassing model.     

Longevity and the life-cycle of management buy-outs

The longevity debate about buy-outs has hitherto been restricted. By focusing on large highly leveraged transactions, existing research has taken only a partial view of how long buy-outs last and the factors influencing longevity. This paper develops and tests hypotheses concerning the influences on buy-out longevity across the whole spectrum of management buy-out applications. Both quantitative and case study evidence from the U. K. is presented. A heterogeneity view of buy-outs is supported. Tests using quantitative data show that earlier exit is associated with larger buy-outs, and buy-outs arising on privatization from the public sector and from non-U. K. parents. Case study evidence principally supports hypotheses that earlier exit is associated with financing institutions being in a relatively stronger position than management and with more rapidly changing market conditions for the firm.     

CONSTRUCTING AN ENVIRONMENTALLY-EXTENDED MULTI-REGIONAL INPUT–OUTPUT TABLE USING THE GTAP DATABASE

The use of Multi-Regional Input–Output Analysis (MRIOA) for understanding global environmental problems is growing rapidly. Renewed interest in MRIOA has led to several large research projects focused on constructing detailed and accurate MRIOTs. However, very few researchers have made use of the already available and regularly updated database produced by the Global Trade Analysis Project (GTAP). We demonstrate and discuss how the GTAP database can be converted into an MRIOT without the need for additional balancing. An illustrative example uses the GTAP-MRIO to reallocate carbon dioxide emissions from producing to consuming countries. We suggest that an MRIOT that treats international transport exogenously is adequate until more reliable data on international transport margins and emissions are available. To focus resources and refine methods, a concerted research effort is needed to compare the results of the GTAP-MRIO model with the new MRIO datasets under development.