From Planning Models to Descriptive General Equilibrium

I had known Manohar Rao for a long time. For many years I tried to lure him to join the Indira Gandhi Institute of Development Research. He always gave me his disarming smile but his loyalty to Bombay University and to his students was unshakable. He was deeply interested in improving tools for better policy analysis. Hence in this paper I raise some related issues.

     

Deregulation,news releases,and price discovery

We hypothesize that the firm’s regulatory environment influences the sensitivity of its equity value to information. Using intraday stock price data of utilities operating in differing regulatory environments we test for systematic differences between the responsiveness of stock prices of utility firms operating in deregulated and regulated environments to a common information set. Our findings reveal sharp differences in responses, with those of utilities operating in deregulated environments the strongest, and the responses of utilities in highly regulated environments the weakest. While the evidence supports our hypothesis, in a broader sense, the evidence suggests that deregulation aids in the process of price discovery. We also find evidence that suggests that deregulation, per se, does not lead to higher stock price volatility.      

“Do Fiscal Deficits Influence Current Accounts? A Case Study of India”

This paper examines the effects of fiscal deficits on the current account deficits in the Indian economy. In many developing countries, fiscal deficits are mostly financed through monetization, causing crowding out of private investment expenditures. However, fiscal deficits in India are mostly financed through official borrowings from various external sources, leading to higher interest payments and outgoings on the external account. Such a policy could eventually precipitate balance of payments crises despite favorable trade account and real exchange rate. Data over three decades for the Indian economy show that, in addition to the real exchange rate and the ratio of private investment to GDP, fiscal deficits significantly contribute to the current account deficits.     

Traffic evacuation time under nonhomogeneous conditions

During many manmade and natural crises such as terrorist threats, floods, hazardous chemical and gas leaks, emergency personnel need to estimate the time in which people can evacuate from the affected urban area. Knowing an estimated evacuation time for a given crisis, emergency personnel can plan and prepare accordingly with the understanding that the actual evacuation time will take longer. Given the urban area to be evacuated, street widths exiting the area's perimeter, the area's population density, average vehicle occupancy, transport mode share and crawl speed, an estimation of traffic evacuation time can be derived. Peak-hour traffic data collected at three, midblock, Mumbai sites of varying geometric features and traffic composition were used in calibrating a model that estimates peak-hour traffic flow rates. Model validation revealed a correlation coefficient of +0.98 between observed and predicted peak-hour flow rates. A methodology is developed that estimates traffic evacuation time using the model.     

Losers and prospectors in the short-term options market

Intraday data for weekly options are investigated for behavioral biases implied in prospect theory (PT) and cumulative prospect theory (CPT). The results generally support both theories, with losers (winners) observed to be relatively risk-seeking (averse). On aggregate, losers (winners) overprice (underprice) their contracts and overweight (underweight) the probability of winning. Additionally, the volatility smirk observed in equity options is dampened by PT/CPT biases. The price distortions are time sensitive, especially for losing traders. Losers hold out by transacting later in the day and closer to expiration than their baseline counterparts. This betting-time effect is absent among winners.     

Preparing for higher inflation: Portfolio solutions using U.S. equities

Investors have always been interested in reducing inflation risk in their portfolios. However, investors face different types of inflation than those measured by the Consumer Price Index (CPI). Moreover, different asset classes can be used to hedge portfolio inflation. In this paper, we show how individual equities can be used to construct equity portfolios sensitive to customized inflation targets. We illustrate portfolios for three types of inflation: US headline CPI, Forbes Cost of Living Extremely Well Index, and the US Medical Care Price Index. We also show how alternative weighting schemes, such as minimum volatility and maximum inflation beta, can be used to construct inflation‐hedged portfolios.     

Stock returns and economic activity: the UK case

This paper investigates the relationships between real stock returns and a number of financial and economic variables for the UK economy for the period 1980 to 1994. We begin by discussing a theoretical model proposed by Balvers et al. and then re-estimate for the UK what may be regarded as an application of that model by Fama applied to the US market. This reproduces Fama's main results. For the UK we than suggest a slightly, different application of the Balvers model, the most important feature of which is the use of expectational macro-economic variables instead of Fama's use of leading values of industrial production. We then go on to investigate the unit root properties of the data and show that much of the data is indeed characterized by the presence of unit root non stationarity In the light of this, we propose an application of the Phillips-Loretan error-correction model and show that this provides a plausible relationship between real stock returns and most of the financial and economic variables.     

Dominant markets,staggered openings,and price discovery

This study examines information incorporation and price discovery in closely related markets that witness staggered openings. A theoretical model is presented. In this framework, one market, termed dominant, is the venue where most of the price discovery occurs, and the other is termed secondary. The model predicts heightened volatility and order flow in each market when it opens first compared with when it opens second. The effects are predicted to be more pronounced in the dominant market, and is linked to the process of information incorporation. Tests conducted using futures on crude oil (dominant) and gasoline (secondary), two related markets that witness staggered openings, reveal findings consistent with the model's predictions. © 2010 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Jrl Fut Mark     

Bargaining with revoking costs

A simple two stage bilateral bargaining game is analyzed. The players simultaneously demand shares of a unit size pie. If the demands add up to more than one, the players simultaneously choose whether to stick to their demand or accept the other?s offer. While both parties sticking to their offers leads to an impasse, accepting a lower share than the original demand is costly for each party. The set of pure strategy subgame perfect equilibria of the game is characterized for continuously differentiable payoff and cost functions, strictly increasing in the pie share and the amount conceded, respectively. Higher cost functions are shown to improve bargaining power. The limit equilibrium prediction of the model, as the cost functions are made arbitrarily high, selects a unique equilibrium in the Nash Demand Game that corresponds to a Proportional Bargaining Solution of Kalai (1977).     

Living to 100 and beyond--implications of longer life spans

The challenge of longer life spans will center on the problem of allocating individual, family and social resources most effectively. To create a context for understanding the significance of measuring and forecasting mortality trends, this article addresses concerns about the implications of increasing longevity to very high ages for families, businesses and society as a whole.