The Distribution of Foreign Exchange Price Changes: Trading Day Effects and Risk Measurement

This study investigates the nature of price changes in a variety of major and minor foreign exchange markets. The results suggest that the log of price changes over one (trading) day intervals seems to follow a non-normal stable distribution function. Different measures of location (and to lesser extent scale) are present for different days of the week. Dollar denominated price changes are high on Mondays and Wednesdays and low on Thursdays and Fridays for all currencies. The Wednesday-Thursday result is consistent with the settlement procedures used in foreign exchange transactions in the dollar. The Friday-Monday result is consistent with an increase in demand for the dollar prior to the weekend.     

Food Label Use,Self‐Selectivity,and Diet Quality

Food labels provide measurable benefits by improving diet quality of Americans by as much as four to six points on a 100‐point Healthy Eating Index scale. Among nutritional panels, serving sizes, nutrient content claims, list of ingredients, and health claims, the use of health claims on food labels provides the highest level of improvement in diet quality. The data source for this analysis is the 1994 to 1996 Continuing Survey of Food Intakes for Individuals (CSFII) and the accompanying Diet and Health Knowledge Survey (DHKS).     

THE EFFECT OF AUCTION FORMAT ON EFFICIENCY AND REVENUE IN DIVISIBLE GOODS AUCTIONS: A TEST USING KOREAN TREASURY AUCTIONS*

This paper measures the efficiency and revenue properties of the two most popular formats for divisible goods auctions: the uniform‐price and discriminatory auction. We analyze bids into the Korean Treasury auctions which have used both formats. We find that the discriminatory auction yields statistically higher revenue. Unlike previous work that uses data from only one format, we are able to compare the efficiency properties of the two formats. We find that the discriminatory auction better allocates treasury bills to the highest value financial institutions. However, the differences in revenue and efficiency are not large because the auctions are very competitive.     

Informativeness of Annual Reports for Firms in Financial Distress*

Abstract. This article reports the results of an investigation into the informativeness of financial communications with shareholders when the level of market uncertainty regarding future firm performance varies. Specifically, it is hypothesized that the informativeness of annual reports is positively associated with the level of market uncertainty. The informativeness of annual reports is measured by the extent of price reaction, regardless of direction, at the time of disclosure. To obtain a sample of firms with temporal variation in the level of market uncertainty, the article investigates firms nearing financial distress. Financial distress is represented by the firm's receipt of a going-concern audit report from the external auditor. Time periods immediately preceding receipt of the going-concern report are presumed to exhibit changing market uncertainty regarding future firm prospects. The empirical evidence is consistent with the article's hypothesis in that price reactions to annual reports systematically vary the nearer the firms are to financial distress. Specifically, price reactions to annual reports for the three years preceding distress are more than 35 percent larger than the price reactions to reports from earlier periods. This evidence is consistent with the informativeness of financial disclosures being dependent on the level of market uncertainty and advances our understanding of the usefulness of accounting disclosures to market participants. To the extent that accounting regulatory agencies are interested in environmental factors that determine the usefulness of accounting information to shareholders, this article offers evidence on one important factor. Résumé. Les auteurs exposent les résultats d'une analyse du contenu informationnel des renseignements financiers communiqués aux actionnaires lorsque varie le degré d'incertitude du marché relativement aux perspectives de rendement d'une entreprise. Ils posent plus précisément l'hypothèse selon laquelle le contenu informationnel des rapports annuels est en relation positive avec le degré d'incertitude du marché. Le contenu informationnel des rapports annuels est mesuré en termes d'importance de la réaction du cours des actions, peu importe l'orientation, au moment de la communication des renseignements financiers. Pour constituer un échantillon d'entreprises à l'égard desquelles le degré d'incertitude du marché a varié dans le temps, les auteurs ont choisi d'analyser des entreprises sur le point de connaître des difficultés financières. La réception, par l'entreprise, d'un rapport des vérificateurs externes mettant en question la continuité de l'exploitation témoigne de ces difficultés financières. Les auteurs posent l'hypothèse selon laquelle on enregistre, au cours des exercices qui précèdent immédiatement la réception d'un rapport de cette nature, une variation du degré d'incertitude du marché relativement aux perspectives d'avenir de l'entreprise. Les constatations empiriques confirment l'hypothèse formulée, en ce sens que la réaction du cours des actions à la publication des rapports annuels varie de façon systématique lorsque les entreprises se rapprochent des difficultés financières. Plus précisément, la réaction du cours des actions à la publication des rapports annuels pour les trois exercices précédant les difficultés financières est plus de 35 pour cent supérieure à la réaction du cours des actions à la publication des rapports des exercices antérieurs. Cette constatation vient confirmer le fait que le contenu informationnel des renseignements financiers publiés dépend du degré d'incertitude du marché, et elle nous permet de mieux comprendre l'utilité de la publication d'information comptable à l'intention des participants au marché. Dans la mesure où les organismes de réglementation comptable sont intéressés aux facteurs liés à l'environnement qui déterminent l'utilité de l'information comptable pour les actionnaires, les auteurs nous permettent d'acquérir certaines certitudes à l'égard d'un facteur important.     

The Impact of Lifecycle Events on Women's Labour Force Transitions: A Panel Analysis*

This panel study explores the impact of different lifecycle events on women's labour force transitions. We explicitly investigate whether the factors that determine entry into the labour force differ from the factors that determine withdrawal from the labour force. The results demonstrate that labour force transitions – entry and withdrawal – occur more frequently among young women. The event of childbirth is strongly associated with labour force withdrawal, while marital separation and reductions in family earnings are strongly associated with labour force entry. Moreover, labour force transition probabilities are more sensitive to income‐reducing events than to income‐supplementing events.     

EFFECTS OF TAXES AND BENEFITS ON INCOME DISTRIBUTION IN KOREA

This paper examines the redistributive effects of Korea's fiscal policies, including consumption taxes and in‐kind benefits. Using the Household Income and Expenditure Survey of 2007, we find that taxes and transfers reduce income inequality in Korea by 13.8 percent. Contrary to the popular belief that direct taxes are the key tool for redistribution, in‐kind benefits, direct taxes, and social security contributions all decrease the Gini coefficient by 6.7, 4.7, and 2.9 percentage points, respectively. The redistributive effect of consumption taxes is small and negative (?0.5 percentage point). Policy simulations indicate that education spending financed by the personal income tax has a positive redistributive effect and that the lower 70 percent of households enjoy positive net benefits. Spending targeting the poor has a strong redistributive effect, which implies low popularity because the majority of households face net losses.     

COLLUSION IN THE PRESENCE OF EXTERNALITIES*

I examine collusive bidder behavior in auctions with negative externalities and show that the optimal bidding scheme exhibits only partial rigidity. Because of externalities, a cartel not only has incentive to maximize gains from trade but also to minimize the probability of sales. I identify the tension between the two incentives and show that the more rigid the bidding scheme, the higher the possibility of sales. As the extent of externalities increases, the cartel finds it more important to keep a low probability of sales than to minimize payment to the seller. This results in a partially‐rigid optimal collusive bidding scheme.     

Optimal Incentives with State‐Dependent Preferences

In both experimental and natural settings, incentives sometimes underperform, generating smaller effects on the targeted behaviors than would be predicted for entirely self‐regarding agents. A parsimonious explanation is that incentives that appeal to self‐regarding economic motives may crowd out noneconomic motives such as altruism, reciprocity, intrinsic motivation, ethical values, and other social preferences, leading to disappointing and sometimes even counterproductive incentive effects. We present evidence from behavioral experiments that crowding may take two forms: categorical (the effect on preferences depends only on the presence or absence of the incentive) or marginal (the effect depends on the extent of the incentive). We extend an earlier contribution (Bowles and Hwang, 2008 ) to include categorical crowding, thus providing a more general framework for the study of optimal incentives and as a result, an expanded range of situations for which the sophisticated planner will (surprisingly) make greater use of incentives when incentives crowd out social preferences than when motivational crowding is absent.     

Crisis and Recovery: What We Have Learned from the South Korean Experience?*

This paper analyzes the process of recovery from the 1997 financial crisis in South Korea, and draws some lessons from it. The fast restoration of financial stability due to early closure of non‐viable financial institutions and quick resolution of non‐performing loans was critical for the speedy recovery of the South Korean economy. The swift adjustment in fiscal and monetary policies in addition to the large depreciation of real exchange rates also supported the fast recovery. Corporate and government bond markets played an important role in the financial restructuring and macroeconomic adjustment process. Structural reforms helped to alleviate the weaknesses in the corporate sector, particularly in chaebol groups. However, the fast recovery also generated unwelcome side‐effects. Because of aggressive fiscal expansion through government‐guaranteed bonds and public credit guarantee programs, sovereign liabilities increased greatly and transparency of the official fiscal stance deteriorated. Thanks to structural reform, corporate and financial sectors began to recognize the importance of micro risk management, but increased risk aversion contributed to the slowdown of corporate investment and, therefore, reduced long‐run growth perspective in South Korea. How to revive long‐term growth rates remains an important question in South Korea despite fast recovery from the crisis.     

Price Limit Performance: Evidence from the Tokyo Stock Exchange

Price limit advocates claim that price limits decrease stock price volatility, counter overreaction, and do not interfere with trading activity. Conversely, price limit critics claim that price limits cause higher volatility levels on subsequent days (volatility spillover hypothesis), prevent prices from efficiently reaching their equilibrium level (delayed price discovery hypothesis), and interfere with trading due to limitations imposed by price limits (trading interference hypothesis). Empirical research does not provide conclusive support for either positions. We examine the Tokyo Stock Exchange price limit system to test these hypotheses. Our evidence supports all three hypotheses suggesting that price limits may be ineffective.