Asymmetric effects of exchange rate movements on traditional and modern services exports: Evidence from a large emerging economy

The service sector in India has emerged as the ‘new engine of growth’ with an increasing share in output and exports. In this paper we analyse the effect of real exchange rate movements on service exports of India, incorporating goods exports, financial development, FDI inflows, world demand and the role of globalization as drivers. We find that while traditional service exports are negatively and significantly affected by the real exchange rate movements, the modern service exports are negatively but not significantly affected. By applying the asymmetric cointegration approach, the results also confirm the non-existence of any asymmetric relationship between the real exchange rate and service exports in India. Further, the results also show that the supply augmenting and demand-side factors are more dominant than the exchange rate to affect service exports from India.     

Return and volatility spillovers between currency and bond markets in India

This paper examines the return and volatility spillovers between the foreign exchange and bond markets of India using a bivariate asymmetric BEKK-GARCH (1,1) model for the period 4 April 2005 to 31 March 2017. We find the evidence of bidirectional return and volatility spillovers with asymmetric effects between these two markets. The spillovers are evidenced even during the periods when foreign portfolio investments in the Indian bond markets were relatively low suggests the existence of strong inter-linkages between both the markets.     

Classification of spammer and nonspammer content in online social network using genetic algorithm-based feature selection

ABSTRACT

The emergence of online social network invokes social actors to share their personal information digitally. Moreover, it provides the facility to maintain their links with people of same interest globally. Take advantage of these services; it has become a fascinating testbed to invite various threats like a spammer. Detection of spammer in OSN is one of the most critical tasks. Spammer not only spreads unwanted or bad advertisement but does certain malicious activity in others' profiles. By clearly understanding the activities of different threats, some incremental and accurate approaches are needed for detecting spammer content and profiles involved in these activities by using social network services. Therefore, the focus of this article is to detect spammer content and account, specifically on the leading microblogging platform called Twitter. We propose a hybrid approach which leverages the capabilities of various machine learning algorithms to separate spammer and nonspammer contents and account. Initially, the optimisation algorithm called genetic algorithm analyses the various features and selects the best suitable features that influence the behaviour of user account, and these features are then used to train classifiers. Our framework achieved to severalise spammer and nonspammer content in an effective way. Finally, to prove the efficiency of our proposed framework, a comparative analysis is conducted with some existing state-of-art techniques. The experimental analysis shows that our approach achieves a high detection rate of 99.6%, which is better than other state-of-art techniques.     

Classification of various attacks and their defence mechanism in online social networks: a survey

Due to the popularity and user friendliness of the Internet, numbers of users of online social networks (OSNs) and social media have grown significantly. However, globally utilised, social networks are the consequence of the lack of understanding of secrecy and protection on OSN and media has increased. Secrecy and surety of OSNs need to be inquired from various positions. According to recent studies, OSN users expose their private information such as email address, phone number etc. In this paper, we have presented a high-level classification of recent OSN attacks for recognising the problem and analysing the blow of such attacks on World Wide Web. We have also discussed OSN attacks on different social networking web applications by citing certain recent reports such as Kaspersky security network and Sophos security threat report. We also offer some simple-to-implement user practice tips to protect the system and user’s information. In addition to this, we have discussed a comprehensive analysis of numerous defensive approaches on OSN security. Lastly, based on the acknowledged strength and faults of these defensive approaches, we have explained open research issues.     

An exploratory study of factors affecting credit card brand and category selection in India

This article aims to identify various credit card selection factors in the context of an Asian emerging economy – India. Considering the recent emergence of the three-tier banking system in India, the study proposes to investigate whether there exists an association between credit card selection factors and the type of credit card issuing bank (public, private national or private foreign). The article also seeks to find out whether the income level of the individual determines the type of credit card bank category selection, as prior literature suggests that demographic factors are closely related to credit card selection and usage patterns. The analysis was carried out using a mixed method research design involving thematic analysis of focus group data, factor analysis, PERMAP analysis and multiple correspondence analysis in different phases. Five primary credit card selection factors were identified. A strong correspondence between credit card selection factors, personal income levels and choice of credit card issuing bank was found. Accordingly, credit card selection factors and personal income level were together identified as factors affecting the type of bank selected. The phenomenon of bank category-based stereotyping of brands is emphasized based on the analysis. The implications of this phenomenon with respect to brand identity conception, target segmentation, brand positioning and marketing communication are discussed.     

Export-led Growth in South Asia: A Panel Cointegration Analysis

Abstract

In this paper, we attempt to examine the export-led and manufacturing export-led growth hypothesis for four South Asian Countries; namely, India, Pakistan, Bangladesh and Sri Lanka, using Pedroni’s panel cointegration technique for the period 1980–2002. In this context we estimate growth accounting equations to investigate the impact of exports, manufacturing exports and other important physical and human capital variables on both total GDP and non-export GDP. The study finds long-run equilibrium relationship between GDP (and non-export GDP) and exports along with other variables supporting export-led growth hypothesis. The results also substantiate the existence of manufacturing export-led growth hypothesis. Further, we find that export, fixed capital formation, public expenditure on health and education have statistically significant coefficients re-emphasizing the importance of these variables for higher economic growth.     

Monetary autonomy in selected Asian economies: The role of international reserves

With the increased financial integration of Asian countries, monetary policy takes on the additional role of maintaining the stability of the financial system along with the traditional objectives of promoting growth and employment with price stability. Given the importance and relevance of monetary policy in Asian countries, we examine monetary autonomy and its interaction with financial integration, currency regimes and international reserves for the past two decades in the following Asian countries: Thailand, Korea, Indonesia, the Philippines, and India. The empirical analysis reveals two significant and interesting findings that have policy implications. First, Thailand, Korea and Indonesia, countries that have moved towards a floating currency regime, experienced simultaneous declines in the sensitivity of their interest rates (thereby increasing monetary autonomy), while India continues to increase the sensitivity of its interest rates with a pegged exchange rate and increased financial integration. Second, in all of the studied economies, the accumulation of international reserves has contributed, to some extent, to the retention of monetary autonomy in terms of preventing the sensitivity of the interest rates from rising. We speculate that the accumulation of reserves plays the role of an anchor for monetary autonomy in emerging market economies facing a “fear of floating”.     

Rural non‐farm diversification,agricultural feminisation and women's autonomy in the farm: evidence from India

This study contributes to the literature on the interlinkage between household non‐farm diversification (HND), agricultural feminisation and female autonomy in farming. The study uses unit‐level data from the Indian Human Development Survey for the years 2004 ‐ 2005 and 2011 ‐ 2012. The paper employs instrumental variable regression methods to study such interlinkages. The results show HND to be a significant factor contributing to the feminisation of agriculture. The study finds some evidence that the phenomenon is distress driven. Further, greater participation of women in agriculture, as well as women's access to land rights, significantly contributes to female autonomy in farm decision‐making. The results are robust to the use of alternative indicators of agricultural feminisation.     

Quantile Regression Analysis of Predictors of Calorie Demand in India: An Implication for Sustainable Development Goals

This study examined predictors of households’ calorie demand using consumer expenditure survey data during the time frame of millennium development goals. It draws suggestions for achieving sustainable development goals to eliminate calorie-poverty. We used the log of per-capita calorie intake as the calorie demand. Endogeneity corrected quantile regression was applied to examine the distributional effect of predictors. Findings revealed calorie-monthly per-capita consumption expenditure (MPCE) elasticities were positively statistically significant across quantiles in rural-and urban-areas, but, contrary to traditional wisdom, elasticities are lower for calorie-poor than calorie-rich households. Dietary diversification of food items, relative food price, and share of medical-and education-expenditure were the main adverse drivers of calorie demand. Our results are robust to the under-reporting and measurement error. The policy implications are: (a) only focusing on pro-poor income enhancing strategies will not able to reduce calorie deprivation, it should be backed by imparting awareness about food choice and nutritional value of low price food items, (b) to implement necessary policy to maintain stable food inflation and effectively targeted food subsidy for calorie poor, (c) to adopt forward-looking medical-and education-policy such as free health and education facilities to all by enhancing public spending to revive the quality of public hospitals and educational institutions.

     

What Drives India's Surge in Service Exports?

India's prowess in the service sector has been recognised the world over. Sustaining services exports is important not only to sustain India's high growth rate but also to compensate for a consistent deficit in merchandise trade and to maintain stability on the external sector. In this context, we analyse the factors of India's performance in services exports over the past three decades. The results reveal that endowment factors such as human capital, improvement in physical infrastructure and financial development are key drivers for India's surge in services exports along with world demand, exchange rate and manufacturing exports. While factors such as institutions, R&D expenditure, telecommunication, foreign direct investment and financial development significantly impact the export of modern services, traditional services exports are more dependent on infrastructure development, manufacturing exports, world demand and exchange rate. India's economic reforms in the financial sector, FDI, communication so far have helped the services exports, but India needs to focus on supply‐side factors to improve the competitiveness – and thereby volume – of services exports.