Priority Network Access Pricing for Electric Power

We propose a priority-pricing scheme for zonal access to the electric power grid that is uniform across all buses in a zone. The independent system operator (ISO) charges bulk power traders a per unit ex ante transmission access fee. The zonal access fee serves as an access insurance premium that entitles a bulk power trader to either physical injection of one unit of energy or a compensation payment. The access fee per MWh depends on the injection zone and a self-selected strike price that serves as an insurance deductible that determines the scheduling priority of the insured transaction and the compensation level in case of curtailment. Inter-zonal transactions are charged (or credited) with an additional ex post congestion fee equal to the differences in zonal spot prices. The compensation for curtailed transactions equals the difference between the realized zonal spot price and the selected strike price (deductible level). The ISO manages congestion so as to minimize net compensation payments and thus, curtailment probabilities increase with strike price and for any particular strike price may vary from bus to bus. We calculate the rational expectations equilibrium for three-, four- and six-node systems and demonstrate that the efficiency losses of the proposed second best scheme relative to the efficient dispatch solutions are modest.     

Interval estimation of value-at-risk based on GARCH models with heavy-tailed innovations

ARCH and GARCH models are widely used to model financial market volatilities in risk management applications. Considering a GARCH model with heavy-tailed innovations, we characterize the limiting distribution of an estimator of the conditional value-at-risk (VaR), which corresponds to the extremal quantile of the conditional distribution of the GARCH process. We propose two methods, the normal approximation method and the data tilting method, for constructing confidence intervals for the conditional VaR estimator and assess their accuracies by simulation studies. Finally, we apply the proposed approach to an energy market data set.     

Jump risk of Presidential election: evidence from Taiwan stock and foreign exchange markets

This article employs jump-diffusion models, including the ARJI model and the GARCH-jump model, to examine jump intensity and volatility of Taiwan stock and foreign exchange markets during a Presidential election period. The empirical results indicate that, firstly, the ARJI model fits data better than the GARCH-jump model. Secondly, the Presidential election events enhance the jump intensity of both markets and the jump-induced variance is higher than diffusion-induced variance. It reveals the importance of the discrete jump process during a Presidential election period, and might provide some implications for option pricing or hedging strategy. Due to the intervention of the Central Bank in the foreign exchange market during a Presidential election period, the results indicate that jump intensity and volatility of jump size are more moderate.     

区域经济发展与能源结构的关系研究——引入能源安全及环境因素

能源结构对于区域经济发展具有极其重要的意义。在回顾了能源消费与经济发展关系的研究成果的基础上,提出了必须结合能源生产结构来综合研究两者的关系,并进一步建立了引入能源安全因素和环境因素的能源与经济之间的数量模型。