Do the poor benefit from globalization regardless of institutional quality?

Despite significant progress towards the Millennium goals, more than one billion people live on less than 1.25 US dollars per day. Previous research suggests that globalization stimulates poverty reduction, but does not investigate what role institutions play in this relationship. Theoretically, globalization could act as either a complement or a substitute to institutional quality in reducing poverty. We find that the poverty-reducing effect of globalization is stronger when institutions are weak. In particular, increasing social globalization reduces poverty more when corruption is high and democratic accountability is low. Thus, globalization has the power to reduce poverty even in countries with low institutional quality.     

Valuation Implications of Investment Opportunities and Earnings Permanence

This study investigates the value-relevance of accounting earnings in the presence of investment (growth) opportunities after making two theoretical and methodological research design refinements. First, we test for the incremental effect of growth on firms earnings response coefficients after controlling for the extent of transitory earnings under the assumption that the value-relevance of earnings with respect to growth should be stronger when earnings are more permanent. Second, we perform comprehensive factor analysis using market-based and accounting-based measures to construct a composite proxy for investment opportunities. We find that firms investment opportunities and the relative permanence of current earnings affect the value-relevance of those earnings. Additionally, we find that the interaction between permanent earnings and investment opportunities produces an even stronger price response to earnings.     

Run theorems for low returns and large banks

In this paper, we revisit the issue of bank fragility in the Diamond and Dybvig (J Polit Econ 91:401–419, 1983) model with sequential service and finite traders. We provide a precise condition under which banks are susceptible to a run when the return on investment is low, and we show that sufficiently large banks are always susceptible to a run. One interpretation of the condition is that exposure to runs occurs when desire for consumption smoothing or predictability of preference profiles are relatively high.     

The employment interview: A review of current studies and directions for future research

The employment interview continues to be a prevalent device used by organizations and a popular topic of study among researchers. In fact, over 100 new articles have been published since Posthuma, Morgeson and Campion's [Posthuma, R. A., Morgeson, F. P., & Campion, M. A. (2002). Beyond employment interview validity: A comprehensive narrative review of recent research and trends over time. Personnel Psychology, 55, 1–81] review that are selectively examined and critiqued. During this timeframe, three main areas that have received considerable research attention are discussed: (1) understanding why “structured” interviews predict, (2) examining the constructs interviews may measure, and (3) investigating the applicant and interview factors that may affect the interview process. Despite advances made in our knowledge of employment interviews, numerous ideas for future research are advanced. Three key areas that deserve immediate research attention are: (1) establishing a common model and measurement of interview structure, (2) focusing on what constructs could be or are best measured, and (3) formulating consistent definitions, labeling and measurement of applicant factors. In this way, employment interview research can be advanced.     

Risk as feelings or risk and feelings? A cross‐lagged panel analysis

This article focuses on affective and cognitive processes underlying the perception of risk. A limitation with most process models of affect/cognition is that they include only concurrent emotions. By following a group (n?=?129) of military sailors prospectively during an international operation, we explored longitudinal relations between perceived risk and related feelings.

Longitudinal cross‐lagged path models were estimated to explore the relationships between perceived risk, worry, and emotional distress. Results gave support to earlier studies by showing that cross‐sectional measures of risk and worry were weakly related. Across time, worry and emotional distress were reciprocally related. Perceived risk had impact on worry but not on emotional distress. Neither worry nor emotional distress influenced perceived risk.

The risk‐as‐feelings hypothesis postulates a direct effect of feelings onto behavioural choice, and a reciprocal relation between cognitive evaluations and feelings.

Our findings do not support a reciprocal relation between judgements of risk and feelings, but an impact from risk on to worry. Between various measures of feelings reciprocity seems to exist. Further replications, including also behavioural measures, are needed.     

结构改革与中国工业增长

1978年以来,中国工业在持续的结构改革中经历了强劲的增长和生产率水平的不断提高。本文估算了工业分行业随机前沿生产函数,发现1992年后,TFP增长超过了要素投入增长,但是TFP对工业增长的贡献在2001年后出现了下降。进一步对TFP增长分解后发现,由工业结构改革引致的行业间要素重置显然对改革开放期间中国工业生产率的提高乃至工业增长起到了实际推动作用,即结构红利是显著存在的,而2001年后要素配置效率的下降也成为同期TFP增长贡献份额下降的主要原因。因素回归分析显示,中国要素市场的改革和工业行业的结构调整主导了要素配置效率变化的总体走势,并造成了不同行业要素配置效率的显著差异。     

Price dynamics when there are alternatives to cash payment

Empirical evidence from the 1980s and 1990s indicates that cash use in the U.S. remains high even though there has been a proliferation of alternatives to cash. This paper examines the dynamics of inflation and asset prices in response to innovations in the efficiency of processing noncash transactions. The quantitative results suggest that inflation is more sensitive than nominal interest rates or real equity prices to innovations in the efficiency of non-cash payments processing. Thus, as alternatives to cash payment become more prominent, the volatility of real interest rates may increase.(JELE31, E41, G12) This research is supported by a Swarthmore College Faculty Research Grant and a Eugene M. Lang Faculty Fellowship.