A Nonlinear Model of the Term Structure of Interest Rates

We present an economically motivated two–factor term structure model that generalizes existing stochastic mean term structure models. By allowing a certain parameter to acquire dynamical behavior we extend the two–factor model to obtain a nonlinear three–factor model that is shown, in a deterministic version, to be equivalent to the Lorenz system of differential equations. With reasonable parameter values the model exhibits chaotic behavior. It successfully emulates certain properties of interest rates including cyclical behavior on a business cycle time scale. Estimation and pricing issues are discussed. Standard PCA techniques used to estimate HJM type models are observed to be equivalent to dimensional estimates commonly applied to 'spatial data' in nonlinear systems analysis.
It is concluded that techniques commonly used in the analysis of nonlinear systems may be directly applicable to interest rate models, offering new insights in the development of these models. Tests of nonlinearity in interest rate behavior may need to focus on long cycle times.     

Stock market liquidity and firm value

This paper investigates the relation between stock liquidity and firm performance. The study shows that firms with liquid stocks have better performance as measured by the firm market-to-book ratio. This result is robust to the inclusion of industry or firm fixed effects, a control for idiosyncratic risk, a control for endogenous liquidity using two-stage least squares, and the use of alternative measures of liquidity. To identify the causal effect of liquidity on firm performance, we study an exogenous shock to liquidity—the decimalization of stock trading—and show that the increase in liquidity around decimalization improves firm performance. The causes of liquidity's beneficial effect are investigated: Liquidity increases the information content of market prices and of performance-sensitive managerial compensation. Finally, momentum trading, analyst coverage, investor overreaction, and the effect of liquidity on discount rates or expected returns do not appear to drive the results.     

REPORT OF A CONFERENCE ON THE PROPOSALS FOR REVISION OF THE UNITED NATIONS SYSTEM OF NATIONAL ACCOUNTS, HELD BY THE CONFERENCE ON RESEARCH IN INCOME AND WEALTH

This report summarizes the proceedings of a series of meetings called by the Conference on Research in Income and Wealth of the National Bureau of Economic Research in June of 1966. The major conclusions of the conference, as transmitted to the Statistical Office of the United Nations, were as follows: (1) The aim of integrating the various parts of the system of national accounts, including input-output and financial transactions, is to be welcomed. (2) The more recently developed parts of the system need considerably more work to reach the same level of clarity and usefulness which the national income and product accounts have acquired. (3) Some simplification of the proposed basic system should be considered, involving the identification of a minimum of information that should and could be provided by all countries. (4) In line with the conference's overriding interest in national accounts as an instrument for economic analysis and a means of more informed policy formation, the proposed system needs considerable strengthening in the field of income distribution.     

Spillover effects of increased health insurance enrollment on workers’ compensation insurance

The Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act (ACA) was designed to increase the accessibility and affordability of health insurance. While the ACA did not contain direct provisions related to workers’ compensation (WC), because health‐related coverage is a significant portion of WC costs, the ACA could have unintentionally impacted the WC market. Specifically, expanded health insurance enrollment could reduce WC losses and result in higher performance among insurers participating in the WC market. Using insurer‐state level data, we consider the impact of increased health insurance enrollment on the performance of property‐casualty (PC) insurers. Utilizing multiple measures of performance, we find that the post‐ACA period is generally associated with greater profitability for PC insurers operating in the WC market, a positive unintended consequence of this federal regulation.     

Corporate Diversification and Credit Constraints: Real Effects across the Business Cycle

We study whether differences in access to credit cause focusedfirms to perform differently from diversified firms in the productmarket. Prior work has identified binding credit constraintsfor bank-dependent firms during recessions. We assess whethercorporate diversification alleviates these constraints. We findthat during recessions sales growth rates drop more for bank-dependentfocused firms than for rival segments of bank-dependent diversifiedfirms. We also find that during recessions inventory growthrates drop more for bank-dependent focused firms than for bank-dependentdiversified firms even after we control for contemporaneoussales growth. Consistent with a credit constraint explanation,we find no difference in the sensitivities to recessions ofbank-independent focused and bank-independent diversified firms.(JEL G30, G31, G32)     

Strategic responses of incumbents to new entry: the effect of ownership structure: capital structure, and focus

We examine how certain firm- and market-specific characteristicsaffect incumbent firms' responses to new entry into their localmarkets. Data comes from the discount department store industrywhere Wal-Mart entered a large number of markets in a shortperiod of time. Consistent with existing research, larger andmore profitable incumbents respond more aggressively to Wal-Mart'sentry, while more highly levered incumbents respond less aggressively.Also, there is evidence that incumbent managers fight harder(possibly overinvest) when their job is at greater risk andhigh managerial ownership appears to reduce this agency problem.Incumbent firms behave differently in markets under attack byWal-Mart than in markets not yet threatened, suggesting thatsome of the documented responses are specific to Wal-Mart'sentry.     

New post‐ACA insurance data highlights health insurer spending on health care quality

Following the Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act (ACA), annual financial reports by commercial health insurers include more detailed information on a Supplemental Health Care Exhibit. In this new exhibit, insurers illustrate spending on the provision of medical services and associated expenses. These expenses, which were commonly reported as “claims adjustment” and “general administrative” expenses, can now be allocated to several new categories of expenses associated with combatting fraud and improving patient health care quality. This article illustrates that quality improvement expenses have increased significantly in the individual, small group, and large group markets following implementation of the ACA. Of the five types of quality expenses reported, the greatest proportion of spending has been toward the improvement of health outcomes and the most pronounced increase from 2011 to 2017 has been spending toward increased wellness and health promotion activities, which include activities such as wellness assessments and coaching programs for patients with chronic diseases. Given that the ACA was designed not only to broaden access to health insurance but also to improve health, analysis of the allocations to various types of quality improvement activities highlights the private market's contribution to improving the health of the US population.     

Regret in health insurance post‐purchase behavior

Unlike other forms of insurance, individuals with health insurance generally expect to make claims through the policy period. Selecting an appropriate level of cost‐sharing is difficult and individuals may, ex‐post, regret the choice of a less‐than‐suitable coverage amount. Using a national health insurance survey of private market consumers from 2013 to 2017, we evaluate the potential for post‐purchase regret in the health plan purchasing decision. We employ an ordered logistic model and find that consumers whose plan choices were likely financially dominated by a foregone alternative are significantly more likely to express regret through reporting significantly lower likelihood of renewal, even when controlling for confounding considerations including affordability, self‐assessed risk, and satisfaction with the plan.