Two experiments examined the effects of iterated polling and feedback on prediction accuracy for volatile world events using the Delphi paradigm. In both experiments, participants predicted rapidly changing geopolitical events. The first experiment occurred during the litigation surrounding the Clinton/Lewinsky affair in 1998. Results indicated that feedback improved individual and group accuracy for predictions of whether an event would occur. These types of predictions derived from group consensus were approximately 90% accurate, which was significantly higher than the average individual participant's accuracy. Neither polling nor feedback had much effect on time course predictions. The second experiment occurred during the American military action against the Taliban regime in Afghanistan in 2001. In Experiment 2, participants were polled three times to determine if increasing the number of iterated polls would improve Delphi accuracy. The results showed that accuracy improved from the first to the second poll but not from the second to the third. The groups predicted whether these scenarios would occur with approximately 75% accuracy, which was significantly higher than the accuracy of any individual participant. Once again, the Delphi procedure did not enhance time course predictions in Experiment 2. 相似文献
Zusammenfassung Exporte und Technologie der Verarbeitenden Industrie. — Die Verfasser nehmen die Behandlung der Technologie in der modernen
Au\enhandelstheorie kritisch unter die Lupe. Unter Anwendung einer dynamischen Perspektive liefern sie einige neue empirische
Erkenntnisse über die Beziehung zwischen der technologischen Wettbewerbsf?higkeit eines Landes und seiner Exportleistung.
Anhand von fünf Industriel?ndern (Deutschland, Japan, Frankreich, Schweden und den Niederlanden) wird gezeigt, da\ es in dieser
Hinsicht betr?chtliche Unterschiede zwischen den L?ndern gibt. Diese Unterschiede k?nnen teilweise auf l?nderspezifische Entwicklungspfade
und auf Unterschiede in der Industriestruktur zurückgeführt werden, aber nach Ansicht der Autoren k?nnten sie auch durch eine
unterschiedliche nationale Technologiepolitik beeinflu\t worden sein.
Résumé Les exportations et la technologie des industries manufacturières. Cette étude examine le traitement du facteur de technologie
dans la théorie moderne du commerce international. En utilisant une perspective dynamique, les auteurs donnent quelque évidence
nouvelle pour la relation entre la compétitivité technologique et la performance dans le commerce international. En considérant
cinq pays industriels (R.F.A., le Japon, la France, la Suède, et les Pays Bas), il est évident qu’il y a des différences remarquables
entre ces pays. On peut attribuer ces différences aux processus du développement spécifiques de ces pays et aux différences
entre la structure industrielle de ces pays examinés. Mais d’après les auteurs, ces différences pourraient être influencées
aussi par les différences entre la politique de la technologie de ces pays.
Resurnen Exportaciones y tecnologia en la industria manufacturera. — Este trabajo estudia el trato del factor tecnologia en la teoria
moderna del comercio. Utilizando un enfoque dinámico se presenta evidencia empirica nueva de la relation entre la competitividad
technológica y la performance del comercio. Considerando los casos de cinco paises industrials (Alemania, Japon, Francia,
Suecia y Holanda) se demuestra que existen notables diferencias entre los países en este aspecto. Si bien estas diferencias
se pueden atribuir parcialmente a las trayectorias de desarrollo especificas de cada pais y a diferencias en la estructura
industrial, se sugiere que también podrian ser influenciadas por las diferencias entre las politicas tecnológicas nacionales.
Franchising provides a channel for small businesses to grow successfully into nationwide or even worldwide chains. Franchising is considered to be common among chain stores, of which the convenience store is a typical example. This study aims to examine the expansion strategy of each individual convenience store franchisor and the competition to expand among the franchisors. Taiwan is considered to have the highest convenience store density in the world. This study performs empirical analyses of four major convenience store franchisors in Taiwan, namely, 7-Eleven, Family Mart, Hi-Life, and OK. The evidence shows that the franchisors tend to be slow to expand when facing a highly dense competitive environment. There exists a strong first-mover advantage in convenience store franchising. The first mover (7-Eleven) has played a dominating role throughout the years. As a result, the franchisors' outlet shares have remained relatively stable. 相似文献
Aims: Data highlighting the cost drivers for non-valvular atrial fibrillation (NVAF) patients in terms of vitamin K antagonist (VKA) treatment and monitoring are lacking in France. This study aimed to evaluate the real-life daily cost of VKA treatment in 2013, in French patients suffering from NVAF.
Methods: This longitudinal observational study was performed using the EGB (Echantillon Généraliste des Bénéficiaires) database, a random sample of the French national insurance (NHI) database, which covers 80% of the population. All adult patients whose first NVAF anticoagulant treatment in 2013 was a VKA were analyzed. Costs were calculated for the duration of follow-up and then divided by the number of days of therapy. The analysis was performed both from the French NHI perspective (amount reimbursed by the NHI) and from a collective perspective.
Results: In this study, 3,254 NVAF patients treated with VKA in 2013 were included, and this sample comprised 52.6% males. The mean daily cost of VKA treatment was €1.13 (±1.18) according to the collective perspective (89.4% of this cost was associated to INR measurement) and €1.05 (±1.16) according to the NHI perspective.
Limitations: As diagnoses associated with procedures are not available in the EGB database, proxies were used, and an algorithm was created to define the AF population.
Conclusions: This analysis is the first to consider an exhaustive spectrum of the costs of VKA treatment in France using EGB data. VKA medication requires exhaustive follow-up, and, thus, associated costs are important. The results of the present study confirmed this close follow-up for VKA patients, making the cost of treatment by VKA nearly 10-times more expensive than the cost of medication itself. 相似文献
Many studies have found strong and positive relationship between per capita income and health care expenditure. These studies usually adopt the assumptions that (1) the relationships among the variables are constant; and/or (2) the supply-side market for health care could be treated by using standard demand functions models. To take into account of the supply side of health care, we use the demand and supply approach with the cointegration model to re-examine this issue. By using Taiwan health care expenditure data, our results show that the real income elasticity is smaller than unity and the health care expenditures are primarily for ‘curing’ rather than ‘caring’. 相似文献
The main purpose of this paper is to examine the relation that exists between the skills possessed by women entrepreneurs and their motivations, barriers and performance. Thus, on the theoretical framework we review literature some aspects that are related to the skills required of a business owner: level of education, previous occupational experience, and prior business expertise and management skills. The analysis undertaken shows that the lack of education and managerial skills of women business owners are two of the most important variables when it comes to understanding the motivations and the difficulties they have to face. 相似文献