Prospect Theory,Fairness, and the Escalation of Conflict at a Negotiation Impasse*

We study a bilateral negotiation set-up where, at a bargaining impasse, the disadvantaged party chooses whether to escalate the conflict or not. Escalation is costly for both parties, and it results in a random draw of the winner of the escalated conflict. We derive the behavioral predictions of a simple social utility function, which is convex in disadvantageous inequality, thus connecting the inequity aversion and the prospect theory models. Our causal laboratory evidence is, to a large extent, consistent with the predicted effects. Among other things, the model predicts that the escalation rate is higher when escalation outcomes are riskier, and that the disagreement rate is lower when the cost of escalating the conflict is higher.     

Paying attention to payoffs in analogy-based learning

The analogy-based expectation equilibrium, or simply analogy equilibrium, analyzes equilibrium stereotypes by imposing consistency of infinitely large action samples with the expectation that broad classes of opponent types behave identically. This paper introduces the payoff-confirming analogy equilibrium (PAE) to refine the set of analogy equilibria. The concept imposes additionally that sample marginal of own payoffs be consistent with one’s expectations. Robust incorrect equilibrium stereotypes, i.e. non-Bayesian Nash PAE are shown to exist. General conditions are given for the prevalence of such stereotypes under correct expectations on exogenous uncertainty. In monotone selection games susceptible to winner’s curse, naive behavioral equilibrium leading to aggravation of adverse selection has been shown to match plausible informational assumptions of experienced, but behaviorally biased, equilibrium play. Here, behavioral equilibrium is matched with a corresponding PAE with an incorrect prior and correct prior is shown to imply correct overall expectations.     

The partially cursed and the analogy-based expectation equilibrium

Recent literature has established a link between the fully cursed equilibrium and the analogy-based expectation equilibrium. In this note, even the partially cursed equilibrium is shown to correspond to an analogy-based expectation equilibrium.     

Microeconomic and Macroeconomic Influences on Entry and Exit of Firms

We examine the entry and exit process in the Finnish manufacturing industry using a six year panel of three-digit industries. The results show that scale economies form a significant entry barrier, but the evidence on their role as an exit barrier is weaker. Industry growth has a positive influence on entry and a negative influence on exit, but also variables describing the general economic climate have an influence on the entry-exit process. The variables describing the monetary transmission mechanism have an expected influence on entry. However, the role of macroeconomic influences on exit is inconclusive. Both entry and exit have almost unit elasticity with respect to industry size, measured by the number of firms in the previous period. Entry and exit rates are therefore practically independent of industry size.     

Determinants of customer loyalty in the wireless telecommunications industry

This paper reports the results of research investigating the determinants of the propensity to switch wireless service providers. A model generated from the data rather than from a priori theory is presented, and it is found to uphold the strong relationship between customer satisfaction and customer loyalty exhibited in prior studies. In sharp contrast to the prevailing industry practice of ‘locking in’ customers by means of restrictive contracts, this research suggests that wireless service providers are better off improving customer satisfaction in order to minimize customer defection. This would imply shifting scarce resources to customer retention through improved service, saving costs of expensive customer acquisition campaigns. The paper also proposes two methodological innovations. First, the research employs the ‘Tetrad methodology’ as an exploratory technique prior to building a Structural Equation Model (SEM) making it possible to identify drivers of loyalty—direct or indirect—when it might not be known a priori what these drivers might be. Secondly, the paper proposes an approach to estimating moderator effects on the relationship between satisfaction and customer loyalty.     

Combining value and momentum: evidence from the Nordic equity market

This is the first article that explores the recently proposed average ranking approach for the value and momentum strategy in the Nordic equity market offering an exceptional experimental environment. Our results indicate that in the Nordic stock markets, the value anomaly offered excess returns in the 1993–2017 sample period only when small stocks were a part of the portfolio, whereas the momentum effect is strong and significant, irrespective of size. Interestingly, our findings also indicate that the negative correlation between value and momentum seems to be driven by growth stocks: Winner stocks that are value stocks generated 1.66% per month on average, whereas winner stocks that are growth stocks exhibit virtually the same average payoff. On the other hand, the spread between value and growth stocks that are loser stocks is on average 0.97% per month.     

Vorvertragliche Informations- und Aufklärungspflichten des Versicherers nach finnischem Recht

The essay deals with the regulation of the pre-contractual duty of the insurer to inform and advice the prospective policyholders according to the Finnish law. The regulation could possibly be used as a model for the amendment of the German Insurance Contract Law (VVG). The widely amended Finnish Insurance Contract Law (VSL) came into force on 1. 7. 1995. The regulation of the pre-contractual duties of the insurer was one of the most important amendments of the law. According to sec. 5 VSL, the insurer shall give the insurance applicant the information which is needed for the assessment of the insurance requirement and for the choice of the insurance before the insurance agreement is entered into. If the insurer or his representative has neglected to provide the policyholder with the necessary information concerning the insurance or has provided him with faulty or misleading information, sec. 9 VSL will apply. According to it, the insurance agreement is considered to be in force with the content which the policyholder had reason to infer on the basis of the information which he had received. The provisions are general clauses. The essay explains the details of the provisions through the cases which have been solved by the Finnish Complaints Boards.     

Subliminal influence on generosity

We experimentally subliminally prime subjects prior to charity donation decisions by showing words that have connotations of pro-social values for a very brief time (17 ms). Our main finding is that, compared to a baseline condition, the pro-social prime increases donations by approximately 10–17 % among subjects with strong pro-social preferences (universalism values). We find a similar effect when interacting the prime with the Big 5 personality characteristic of agreeableness. We furthermore introduce a novel method for testing for priming, “subliminity”. This method reveals that some subjects are capable of recognizing prime words, and the overall results are weaker when we control for this capacity.