Financial integration and banking crisis. A critical analysis of restrictions on capital flows

We investigate the effect of financial integration on a banking crisis. In contrast to existing works, we allow for capital restrictions while studying the impact of financial integration on a banking crisis. Using firm-level lending and borrowing information in the global market of syndicated loans; we generate aggregate measures of financial integration and examine how countries with capital flow restrictions thrive in the wake of a banking crisis. We concentrate on basic network measures of integration for a panel of 62 countries that allow for capital restriction at any time within the sample period. Financial integration increases the incidence of a banking crisis, and capital restrictions worsen a banking crisis. However, capital restrictions reduce the negative impact of financial integration on the incidence of a banking crisis. Thus, financial integration becomes beneficial when countries allow for some forms of capital control.     

A simulation model for evaluating a set of emergency vehicle base locations: development, validation, and usage.

This paper describes our experiences in developing a simulation model for evaluating a set of emergency response vehicle base locations. The project was undertaken jointly by the University of Arizona and the Tucson Fire Department. The issues of model development, data collection, model validation, and experimentation are discussed. The critical nature of the problem and the clients' lack of experience with mathematical models, made model validation the major step in gaining user acceptance. We show that looking solely at standard performance statistics such as the calls successfully serviced, may lead to the acceptance of an invalid model. We also show that the high level of detail used in many simulation models for evaluating base locations is unnecessary in the current case. An analysis evaluating two alternative sets of locations for the Tucson system is discussed.     

The World Trade Organisation's Doha Cotton Initiative: A Tale of Two Issues

Four West African nations have demanded that the WTO's Doha Development Agenda include a Cotton Initiative that involves two issues: cutting cotton subsidies and tariffs, and assisting farm productivity growth in Africa. This paper provides estimates of the potential economic impacts of (a) complete or partial removal of cotton subsidies and import tariffs globally and (b) cotton productivity growth through the adoption of genetically modified (GM) cotton varieties. Use is made of the GTAP database and global economic model to address both these issues. On Doha, our results confirm that for cotton – unlike for other agricultural subsidies and tariffs – it is subsidy reductions rather than tariff cuts that would make by far the largest impact. For Sub‐Saharan Africa the potential gains are huge relative to the effects on that region of reforming other merchandise trade policies. And they could be more than doubled if that reform provided the cash for farmers to take advantage of the biotechnology revolution and adopt GM cotton varieties. But those potential gains, and the affordability of switching to costly GM seed, depend crucially on the extent to which high‐income countries are willing to lower domestic support to their cotton farmers.     

Global and regional inequality in the distribution of income: Estimation with limited and incomplete data

The paper examines the nature and extent of global and regional inequality using the most recent country level data on inequality drawn from World Bank studies, and real per capita income from the Penn World Tables, for the period 1980–1990. The methodology employed in the paper is based on a mixture of parametric and non-parametric approaches to inequality measurement. It is designed to handle the limited and incomplete nature of income distribution data from different countries. Empirical results show a very high degree of global inequality, but with some evidence of catch-up and convergence between regions.     

Sovereign ceilings “lite”? The impact of sovereign ratings on corporate ratings

Although credit rating agencies have gradually moved away from a policy of never rating a corporation above the sovereign (the ‘sovereign ceiling’), it appears that sovereign credit ratings remain a significant determinant of corporate credit ratings. We examine this link using data for advanced and emerging economies over the period of 1995–2009. Our main result is that a sovereign ceiling continues to affect the rating of corporations. The results also suggest that the influence of a sovereign ceiling on corporate ratings remains particularly significant in countries where capital account restrictions are still in place and with high political risk.     

Sources of inequality in the Philippines: Insights from stochastic dominance tests for richness and poorness

New stochastic dominance (SD) tests of richness and poorness are applied to income and expenditure distributions in the Philippines to measure relative welfare levels and investigate sources of inequality from 2000 to 2012. We successfully demonstrate that welfare analyses based on ascending and descending SD principles offer a stronger characterisation of changing levels of welfare in a population than what could be obtained using standard SD approach alone. Empirically, our results show that large improvements in relative welfare over time in the Philippines favoured older and female-headed households, mainly in the urban areas. Further, female headship and more years in education promoted higher welfare within and among the population groups. On the other hand, the growth of remittance incomes may have caused the greater imbalance in the distributions found in more recent years. Analysis by age groups meanwhile showed that over time, there are increasing concentrations of poorer households among the youngest cohort (30 and under), at the same time that there are also increasing concentrations of richer households among the over 60s. The combined impact of these factors provides a viable explanation as to why the gap between the rich and the poor has remained high in the Philippines for a very long time now.     

Hoglex Demand Systems and Welfare Policy in Major Asean Developing Countries: A Bayesian Analysis Using Expenditure Unit Records

The HOGLEX demand system (Tran Van Hoa (1983, 1985)) is integrable and flexible in the sense that it is based on utility maximization and encompasses most other well-known demand systems (e.g., LINEX, AIDS) in the literature on consumer behaviour (Laitinen et al. (1983)). HOGLEX studies to date have been based on conventional OLS or MLE methods and panel aggregate income and price data, and restricted to investigating consumption patterns. The paper elaborates on three important subsets of the HOGLEX demand system and, using household expenditure unit records from two major ASEAN developing countries (i.e., Thailand and the Philippines), estimates by the Bayesian method these subsets for 20 socio-demographic cohorts, and discusses their substantial implications in social security and welfare policy analysis. We also estimate the models in the more practical case of measurement errors in total expenditure and compare the results with those without measurement errors.

     

Financial openness,market structure and private credit: An empirical investigation

Consistent with recent theoretical models, this paper finds that financial openness has a positive effect on private credit in economies characterized by a competitive banking sector, but that this effect vanishes and even becomes negative in economies with imperfect banking competition.     

Salesperson CLV orientation's effect on performance

Previous studies show how strategies based on the customer lifetime value (CLV) can lead to an increase of profitability for a firm. In this context, marketing serves the purpose of maximizing CLV and customer equity (the CLV of current and future customers). For most types of service firms, salespeople are direct participants in implementing the CLV concept. However, prior research does not answer the question of whether or how salesperson CLV orientation can enhance profits. Using data on salespeople in a large Chilean retail bank, this study shows that the effect of salesperson CLV orientation on salesperson performance follows an S-shaped function (which is first convex and then concave). Additionally, data does not support the idea that the optimum level of CLV orientation depends on salesperson customer orientation, salesperson adaptive selling behavior, or salesperson experience (i.e., CLV-oriented behaviors could be effective across a wide range of salespeople). As such, this study addresses an important concern among researchers and managers that is related to how to increase the salesperson performance. The findings of this study suggest that firms need to monitor individual salesperson CLV orientation more closely.     

Debt Sustainability Under Catastrophic Risk: The Case for Government Budget Insurance

Natural disasters are an important source of vulnerability in the Caribbean region. Despite being one of the more disaster-prone areas of the world, it has the lowest levels of insurance coverage. This article examines the vulnerability of Belize's public finance to the occurrence of hurricanes and the potential impact of insurance instruments in reducing that vulnerability. The article finds that catastrophic risk insurance significantly improves Belize's debt sustainability. In addition, the methodology employed makes it possible to estimate the appropriate level of insurance, which for the case of Belize is a maximum coverage of US$120 million per year. International organizations can play a role in assisting countries to overcome distortions in insurance markets, as well as in helping to relax internal political resistance to the purchase of insurance policies.