Modelling inflation shifts and persistence in Tunisia: perspectives from an evolutionary spectral approach

This article examines the dynamic characteristics of the inflation rate in Tunisia over the last two decades, and particularly following the onset of the Arab Spring in 2010 which causes distortions in this country’s monetary policy. We focus on the two specific dimensions of the Tunisian inflation rate: inflation regimes and persistence. We tackle this issue by adopting an evolutionary spectral approach, initially proposed by Priestley and Tong (1973). Our main findings indicate a stable inflation regime in the last 10 years, with an average inflation rate of around 5.5%. It is also found that the Tunisian inflation experienced a high degree of inertia which reflects its gradual responses to shocks. We also discuss the policy implications of these results, which typically require policy-makers to implement sound institutional reforms to reduce inflation.     

Real estate markets and the macroeconomy: A dynamic coherence framework

This paper analyzes the dynamic interactions between real estate markets, in the US and the UK and their macroeconomic environments. We apply a new approach based on a dynamic coherence function (DCF) to study these interactions bringing together different real estate markets (the securitized market, the commercial market and the residential market). The results suggest that there is a common trend that drives the different real estate markets in the UK and the US, particularly in the long run, since they have a similar shape of the DCF. We also find that, in the US, wealth and housing expenditure channels are very conductive during real estate crises. However, in the UK, only the wealth effect is significant as a transmission channel during real estate market downturns. In addition, real estate markets in the UK and the US react differently to institutional shocks. This brings some insights on the conduct of monetary policy in order to avoid disturbances in real estate markets.     

Impact of privacy concerns on resistance to smart services: does the ‘Big Brother effect’ matter?

ABSTRACT

The aim of this study is to provide a better understanding of the factors that explain consumer resistance to smart services from a privacy perspective. To this end, an exploratory qualitative study and a quantitative study were carried out. 653 French consumers answered an online questionnaire regarding smart services in the banking sector. Structural equation modelling was used to test the conceptual model. The findings show that information privacy, the unauthorised secondary use of personal information and perceived intrusion have an impact on consumer resistance to smart services. Moreover, our research highlights the major role of the ‘Big Brother effect’ as an antecedent to these various privacy concerns.     

The macroeconomic performance of the inflation targeting policy: An approach based on the evolutionary co-spectral analysis (extension for the case of a multivariate process)

This paper proposes a new methodology to check the economic performance of a monetary policy and in particular the inflation targeting policy (ITP). The main idea of this work is to consider the ITP as economically efficient when it generates a stable monetary environment. The latter is considered as stable when a long-run equilibrium exists to which the paths of economic variables (inflation rate, interest rate and GDP growth) converge. The convergence of the variables' paths implies that these variables are more predictable and implies a less uncertainty in the economic environment. To measure the degree of convergence between economic variables, we propose, in this paper, a dynamic time-varying variable presented in the frequency approach named cohesion. This variable is estimated from the evolutionary co-spectral theory as defined by Priestley and Tong (1973) and Priestley (1969, 1981, 52 and 53). We apply this theory to the measure of cohesion presented by Croux et al. (2001) to obtain a dynamic time-varying measure. In the last step of the study, we apply the Bai and Perron test (1998, 2003a,b) to determine the change in the cohesion path. The results show that the implementation of the ITP generates a high degree of convergence between economic series that implies less uncertainty into the monetary environment. We conclude that the inflation targeting generates a stable monetary environment. This result allows us to conclude that the ITP is relevant in the case of industrialized countries.     

Uncertainty and the United States’ election effect on the economy: some thoughts and empirical illustrations

This study discusses the general impact of Donald Trump’s election on the US and European economies as well as the effect of this political news on financial markets. To this end, we discuss different hypotheses from a theoretical view and empirically illustrate these thoughts when possible. Our analysis suggests that while the expected Trump measures might boost the US economy in the short term, these actions would have negative long-term consequences in the United States. Further, this new US policy will affect European economies and destabilize financial markets while increasing uncertainty, which could constrain growth and increase the downside risk.     

On the relationship between energy returns and trading volume: a multifractal analysis

Forecasting and modelling commodities price movements and the activity of energy markets are of real interest to investors and policymakers, especially during turbulent times. This study investigates the volume–returns relationship for two major energy markets (oil and gas) during the recent global financial crisis. Unlike previous studies, we examine this relationship by applying an original fractal approach to intraday data, which has the advantage of accounting for further non-normality, nonstationarity, and fat-tailedness properties. Our study provides two interesting findings. First, we find a significant multifractal relationship between returns and volume in both markets and across all timescales, suggesting nonlinearity in the cross-correlation between returns and volume and rejecting the efficiency assumption. Second, the measure of multifractality in this relationship shows that the magnitude of the fluctuations during bearish and bullish trends affects the volume–return relationship differently, and that the oil market exhibits higher volatility than does the gas market.     

Consumer Resistance to Innovation in Services: Challenges and Barriers in the Internet of Things Era

The Internet of Things (IoT) is expected to be the next phase of the Internet revolution and to transform consumers’ service experience. It nevertheless raises challenges on innovation in services. Based on Ram and Sheth's ( 1989 ) theoretical framework, this work attempts to provide a better understanding of the barriers that lead to consumers’ resistance to smart services as an innovation. To this end, our research adopts an integrative framework that combines functional barriers, psychological barriers, and individual barriers to explain consumer resistance to smart services. Structural equation modeling was used to test this theoretical framework. Our research enriches the existing literature by (1) adapting Ram and Sheth's ( 1989 ) theoretical framework to the evolution of digital technologies (technological vulnerability barriers), (2) taking into account the ideological aspect of resistance (ideological barriers), and (3) considering dispositional variables (individual barriers). Moreover, it highlights the key role of skepticism toward IoT devices as a mediator between technological vulnerability barriers and individual barriers on the one hand and consumer resistance to smart services on the other.     

The Minimal Entropy Martingale Measure (MEMM) for a Markov-Modulated Exponential Lévy Model

This paper deals with the characterization problem of the minimal entropy martingale measure (MEMM) for a Markov-modulated exponential Lévy model. This model is characterized by the presence of a background process modulating the risky asset price movements between different regimes or market environments. This allows to stress the strong dependence of financial assets price with structural changes in the market conditions. Our main results are obtained from the key idea of working conditionally on the modulator-factor process. This reduces the problem to studying the simpler case of processes with independent increments. Our work generalizes some previous works in the literature dealing with either the exponential Lévy case or the exponential-additive case.     

Multimarket Competition,Mobility Barriers,and Firm Performance

This study develops and tests a theoretical framework which suggests interactive dynamics, with strong performance implications, between the height of mobility barriers surrounding strategic groups and the extent of within‐group multimarket competition. Empirical analysis drawn from a longitudinal sample of pharmaceutical firms indicates that within‐group multimarket competition has strong positive effect on firm performance for strategic groups surrounded by high mobility barriers. As we move lower on the mobility barriers hierarchy, this effect decreases, becoming non‐significant for groups surrounded by moderate mobility barriers and negative for groups surrounded by low mobility barriers. These findings highlight the conditions under which mobility barriers and multimarket competition have significant performance implications. In addition, our results suggest that mobility barriers and multimarket competition are not substitutive but complementary devices promoting mutual coordination within strategic groups. Finally, our findings point to the need to consider multimarket contacts as an aggregate property of strategic groups.     

Assessing the Effect of Trade Openness on Health in the MENA Region: a Panel Data Analysis

This study examines the effect of trade openness on the health outcomes of 12 countries in the MENA (Middle East and North Africa) region: Algeria, Bahrain, Egypt, Jordan, Morocco, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Tunisia, Turkey, and the UAE. By using a panel data investigation over 1970–2015, we check whether the trade of these countries with developed economies (using the proxy of G7 countries) and the rest of the world affects life expectancy and the infant mortality rate. We also assess the moderating effect of governmental corruption. Our findings show two interesting results. First, trade openness has a positive effect on health in the MENA region as it reduces the infant mortality rate and boosts life expectancy for both men and women. Second, better control over corruption and more focus on trade with developed countries would lead to more technology and information spillovers, which positively affect the health sector.