Credit Risk Research: Review and Agenda

This article provides a comprehensive review of scholarly research on credit risk measurement during the last 57 years applying bibliometric citation analysis and elaborates an agenda for future research. The bibliography is compiled using the Institute for Scientific Information (ISI) Web of Science (WOS) database and includes all articles with citations over the period 1960–2016. Specifically, the review is carried out using 1695 articles across 72 countries published in 442 journals by 2928 authors. The findings suggest that credit risk research is multifaceted and can be classified into six streams: (1) defaultable security pricing, (2) default intensity modeling, (3) comparative analysis of credit models, (4) comparative analysis of credit markets, (5) credit default swap (CDS) pricing, and (6) loan loss provisions. The article contributes through synthesizing and identifying existing as well as emerging research streams.     

Bibliometric analysis of absorptive capacity

This study contributes to our understanding of absorptive capacity (AC) by reviewing AC articles systematically using two types of blibliometric co-citation analysis – bibliometric co-citation and bibliometric cartography – for the last 25 years. In total, we analyzed 336 articles (using HistCite) and 2088 articles (using VOSviewer), respectively, finding five research streams in AC: (1) intra-organizational learning; (2) inter-organizational learning; (3) knowledge transfer; (4) dynamic capability; and (5) micro-foundations. This integrative literature review of AC adds to the categorization of the literature, links the international business research to AC, and provides promising future research directions. Our study gives detailed information about the development of each research stream by measuring the number of publications in each stream over 25 years using bibliometric cartography analysis. Based on the literature, we propose 26 future research questions for these five research streams.     

Non-consequentialist voting

Standard theory assumes that voters’ preferences over actions (voting) are induced by their preferences over electoral outcomes (policies, candidates). But voters may also have non-consequentialist (NC) motivations: they may care about how they vote even if it does not affect the outcome. When the likelihood of being pivotal is small, NC motivations can dominate voting behavior. To examine the prevalence of NC motivations, we design an experiment that exogenously varies the probability of being pivotal yet holds constant other features of the decision environment. We find a significant effect, consistent with at least 12.5 percent of subjects being motivated by NC concerns.     

Evidence on the Trade-Off between Risk and Return for IPO and SEO Firms

Do the low long‐run average returns of equity issuers reflect underperformance due to mispricing or the risk characteristics of the issuing firms? We shed new light on this question by examining how institutional lenders price loans of equity issuing firms. Accounting for standard risk factors, we find that equity issuing firms' expected debt return is equivalent to the expected debt return of nonissuing firms, implying that institutional lenders perceive equity issuers to be as risky as similar nonissuing firms. In general, institutional lenders perceive small and high book‐to‐market borrowers as systematically riskier than larger borrowers with low book‐to‐market ratios, consistent with the asset pricing approach in Fama and French (1993) . Finally, we find that firms' expected debt returns decline after equity offerings, consistent with recent theoretical arguments suggesting that firm risk should decline following an equity offering. Overall, our analysis provides novel evidence consistent with risk‐based explanations for the observed equity returns following IPOs and SEOs.     

An Empirical Analysis of Analysts' Target Prices: Short-term Informativeness and Long-term Dynamics

Using a large database of analysts' target prices issued over the period 1997–1999, we examine short‐term market reactions to target price revisions and long‐term comovement of target and stock prices. We find a significant market reaction to the information contained in analysts' target prices, both unconditionally and conditional on contemporaneously issued stock recommendation and earnings forecast revisions. Using a cointegration approach, we analyze the long‐term behavior of market and target prices. We find that, on average, the one‐year‐ahead target price is 28 percent higher than the current market price.     

Managing micropolitical risk: A cross‐sector examination

This article stresses the need for today's multinational firms to adopt their own political risk‐assessment and risk‐mitigation strategies. A comparative study of the energy, financial, and automobile sectors illustrates the need for all companies in these sectors to undertake comprehensive risk‐assessment strategies. Risk‐assessment models established by leading multinationals like British Petroleum, Bank of America, and General Motors are examined as examples that other companies in these sectors can build upon. The consistent micropolitical risk variables then lead to a proposed practical framework for examining sector‐specific micropolitical risk. © 2006 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.     

Mind the Gap: Crowdfunding and the Role of Seed Money

We analyze voluntary private contributions to public goods and the role seed money plays in signaling the public good's quality to potential subsequent contributors. We present a theoretical model and analyze two sets of naturally occurring data from crowdfunding platforms. After developing the theoretical background, we find statistically significant switch points that distinguish between seed contributions and subsequent contributions. A positive change in contribution behavior after the switch suggests an increase in the perceived value of the public good. We find that the signal comprises the number of contributors and the average contribution (as a proportion of the targeted goal). Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Cultural and behavioral differences: tour guides gazing at tourists

The aim of this exploratory study is to describe, examine, and analyze the manner in which tour guides in Israel gaze at the groups of foreign tourists they lead, in light of their close familiarity and cumulative experience with them. How do Israeli tour guides view different types of tourists, tourist behaviors, and tourist worldviews? The concept of ‘gaze’ refers to the manner in which people view the world around them. When a gaze is focused, it may include both visual and nonvisual elements. The study methodology is based on a grounded theory approach and on in-depth interviews with Israeli tour guides regarding their attitudes toward and perceptions and images of the tourists in their groups. The study proposes a model of five complementary gazes that develop over time, which depicts the processes and elements that help shape how hosts understand the tourists with whom they come in contact. Although the model was based on findings generated by interviews with Israeli tour guides, who are professional hosts, it may also be applicable to other kinds of hosts in different contexts.     

Managerial Response to the May 2003 Dividend Tax Cut

We survey 328 financial executives to determine the effects of the May 2003 dividend tax cut. We find that the tax cut led to initiations and dividend increases at some firms. However, executives say that among the factors that affect dividend policy, the tax rate reduction is less important than the stability of future cash flows, cash holdings, and the historic level of dividends. Tax effects have roughly the same importance as attracting institutional investors and the availability of profitable investments. We also find that press releases only occasionally mention the dividend tax cut as the reason for an initiation.     

Optimal product variety in radio markets

A vast theoretical literature explores inefficient market structures in free‐entry equilibria, and previous empirical work demonstrated that excessive entry may obtain in local radio markets. We extend that literature by relaxing the assumption that stations are symmetric, allowing for endogenous horizontal and (unobserved) vertical station differentiation. We find that, in most broadcasting formats, a social planner who takes into account the welfare of market participants eliminates 50%–60% of the observed stations. In 80%–94.9% of markets where high‐quality stations are observed, welfare could be unambiguously improved by converting one such station into low‐quality broadcasting, suggesting local overprovision of quality.