POSTERIOR‐PREDICTIVE EVIDENCE ON US INFLATION USING EXTENDED NEW KEYNESIAN PHILLIPS CURVE MODELS WITH NON‐FILTERED DATA

Changing time series properties of US inflation and economic activity, measured as marginal costs, are modeled within a set of extended New Keynesian Phillips curve (NKPC) models. It is shown that mechanical removal or modeling of simple low‐frequency movements in the data may yield poor predictive results which depend on the model specification used. Basic NKPC models are extended to include structural time series models that describe typical time‐varying patterns in levels and volatilities. Forward‐ and backward‐looking expectation components for inflation are incorporated and their relative importance is evaluated. Survey data on expected inflation are introduced to strengthen the information in the likelihood. Use is made of simulation‐based Bayesian techniques for the empirical analysis. No credible evidence is found on endogeneity and long‐run stability between inflation and marginal costs. Backward‐looking inflation appears stronger than forward‐looking inflation. Levels and volatilities of inflation are estimated more precisely using rich NKPC models. The extended NKPC structures compare favorably with existing basic Bayesian vector autoregressive and stochastic volatility models in terms of fit and prediction. Tails of the complete predictive distributions indicate an increase in the probability of deflation in recent years. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Infrastructure,returns to scale and sovereign debt

This paper explores the nexus between the issue of sovereign debt and investment in infrastructure, emphasizing the case of economies of scale. The focus is on debt contracts that are incentive compatible. It is shown that public and private financial institutions may need to lend amounts above some threshold to force the borrowing sovereign to take full advantage of any economies of scale that may be present. Low levels of lending may or may not result in default. Sufficiently high amounts of lending may be needed to ensure repayment and may prove to be mutually beneficial.     

Heterogeneous Households,the Distribution of Wealth,and the Laursen-Metzler Effect*

To study the effects of a terms-of-trade deterioration the paper constructs a dynamic model with heterogeneous households that maximize intertemporal utility. It shows that insofar as this shock leads to a redistribution of wealth-an outcome ignored by the literature because of the representative-agent assumption invariably adopted-it may give rise to an initial current-account deficit and nonmonotonic adjustment paths. the paper also buttresses the argument that heterogeneous-household models help explain the observed “excess smoothness” of consumption.     

‘DUAL’ GRAVITY: USING SPATIAL ECONOMETRICS TO CONTROL FOR MULTILATERAL RESISTANCE

We derive a quantity‐based structural gravity equation system in which both trade flows and error terms are cross‐sectionally correlated. This system can be estimated using techniques borrowed from the spatial econometrics literature. To illustrate our methodology, we apply it to a well‐known Canada–US trade dataset. We find that border effects between the USA and Canada are smaller than suggested by previous studies: about 7.5 for Canadian provinces and about 1.3 for US states. Hence controlling directly for cross‐sectional interdependence among both trade flows and error terms reduces measured border effects by capturing ‘multilateral resistance’. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Corporate brand name changes and business restructuring: is the relationship complementary or substitutive?

Corporate brands are strategic assets for organizations, but it is difficult to understand the value added by corporate brand name changes because they often occur simultaneously with business restructuring initiatives. The authors test a framework that delineates the informational relationship between corporate name changes and business restructuring initiatives. The hypothesis is tested on a sample of jointly announced corporate name changes and business restructuring initiatives. The results show that jointly announced corporate name changes and business restructuring are significantly more informative than the sum of their individual effects. The results further suggest that the information complementarity arises because corporate brand name changes resolve uncertainty and help in coordinating business restructuring initiatives. The results do not support the view that corporate brand name changes are cosmetic and/or primarily signals for business restructuring. The study offers a promising research foundation for understanding the value of marketing actions announced jointly with other corporate events.     

INCOME DISTRIBUTION, SOVEREIGN DEBT, AND PUBLIC INVESTMENT

We develop a political economy model of sovereign debt that shows that income inequality leads to popular pressures on the government to use foreign debt to finance a redistribution of income at the expense of productive public investment. Recognizing this fact, international lenders impose credit ceilings with the consequence that developing country borrowers invest less and grow slower.     

Exchange rate pass-through and relative prices: An industry-level empirical investigation

In this paper we explore the extent of exchange rate pass-through for the USA, UK and Japan using a post-Bretton Woods industry-level dataset. We investigate how different channels of exchange rate pass-through affect domestic and import prices. Our analysis is suggestive of two channels of transmission and we find considerable variation in the extent of pass-through across industries and countries.     

Growth,technological interdependence and spatial externalities: theory and evidence

This paper presents a theoretical growth model which explicitly takes into account technological interdependence among economies and examines the impact of spillover effects. Technological interdependence is assumed to operate through spatial externalities. The magnitude of the physical capital externalities at steady state, which is not usually identified in the literature, is estimated using a spatial econometric specification. Spatial externalities are found to be significant. This spatially augmented Solow model yields a conditional convergence equation which is characterized by parameter heterogeneity. A locally linear spatial autoregressive specification is then estimated providing a convergence speed estimate for each country of the sample. Copyright © 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Bibliometrical analysis of Asia Pacific Journal of Tourism Research

Scientific journals are academic publications that produce information in a specific discipline. In the current study, 522 studies published between 2009 and 2017 in Asia Pacific Journal of Tourism Research, were bibliometrically examined. According to findings, the author with the highest rate of contribution to the journal is Rob Law, the most often published institution is Hong Kong Polytech University, and the most researched topic is customer loyalty. Periodical analysis of academic journals enables inferences to be made about the intellectual structures of the disciplines and provides leading summary information on important studies, scientists, and research trends.     

Weak and Strong Cross‐Sectional Dependence: A Panel Data Analysis of International Technology Diffusion

This paper provides an econometric examination of technological knowledge spillovers among countries by focusing on the issue of error cross‐sectional dependence, particularly on the different ways—weak and strong—that this dependence may affect model specification and estimation. A preliminary analysis based on estimation of the exponent of cross‐sectional dependence provides a clear result in favor of strong cross‐sectional dependence. This result has relevant implications in terms of econometric modeling and suggests that a factor structure is preferable to a spatial error model. The common correlated effects approach is then used because it remains valid in a variety of situations that are likely to occur, such as the presence of both forms of dependence or the existence of nonstationary factors. According to the estimation results, richer countries benefit more from domestic R&D and geographic spillovers than poorer countries, while smaller countries benefit more from spillovers originating from trade. The results also suggest that when the problem of (possibly many) correlated unobserved factors is addressed the quantity of education no longer has a significant effect. Finally, a comparison of the results with those obtained from a spatial model provides interesting insights into the bias that may arise when we allow only for weak dependence, despite the presence of strong dependence in the data. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.