Issues in the estimation and application of latent structure models of choice

Our paper provides a brief review and summary of issues and advances in the use of latent structure and other finite mixture models in the analysis of choice data. Focus is directed to three primary areas: (1) estimation and computational issues, (2) specification and interpretation issues, and (3) future research issues. We comment on what latent structure models have promised, what has been, to date, delivered, and what we should look forward to in the future.     

Overeducation, regional labor markets, and spatial flexibility

For most workers, access to suitable employment is severely restricted by the fact that they look for jobs in the regional labor market rather than the global one. In this paper we analyze how macrolevel opportunities (regional market characteristics) and microlevel restrictions (the extent to which job searchers are restricted to the regional market) can help to explain the phenomenon of overeducation. We use a two-step procedure to control selective access to employment. The results show that the size of the labor market is an important factor in avoiding overeducation.     

Do economic statistics contain information to predict stock indexes futures prices and returns? Evidence from Asian equity futures markets

This research examines the impact of local and international market factors on the pricing of stock indexes futures in East Asian countries. The purpose of this paper is to present a study of the significant factors that determine the major stock indexes futures’ prices of Hong Kong, Malaysia, Singapore, South Korea and Taiwan. This study first investigates the relationships between Hang Seng Index Futures, KLCI Futures, SiMSCI Futures, KOSPI Futures, Taiwan Exchange Index Futures and local interest rates, dividend yields, local exchange rates, overnight S&P500 index and a newly constructed index, Asian Tigers Malaysia Index (ATMI). 11 years historical data of stock indexes futures and the economic statistics are studied; 10 years in-sample data are used for testing and developing the pricing models, and 1 year out-of-sample data is used for the purpose of verifying the predicted values of the stock indexes futures. Using simple linear regressions, local interest rates, dividend yields, exchange rates, overnight S&P500 and ATMI are found to have significant impact on these futures contracts. In this research, the next period close is predicted using simple linear regression and non-linear artificial neural network (ANN). An examination of the prediction results using nonlinear autoregressive ANN with exogenous inputs (NARX) shows significant abnormal returns above the passive threshold buy and hold market returns and also above the profits of simple linear regression (SLR). The empirical evidence of this research suggests that economic statistics contain information which can be extracted using a hybrid SLR and NARX trading model to predict futures prices with some degree of confidence for a year forward. This justifies further research and development of pricing models using fundamentally significant economic determinants to predict futures prices.

     

Globalization and affordability of microfinance

We study how globalization can differentially affect financial inclusion through the lens of microfinance. Based on an institutional logics perspective, we argue that MFIs embody both social logic and market logic with regard to provision of affordable microfinance loans. Speicially, social logic is amplified by greater social globalization and the stronger presence of nonprofit organizations (NPOs) in the microfinance industry. In contrast, economic globalization catalyzes MFIs' market logic, leading to weaker or greater affordability of microfinance, depending on the relative strength of the profit-maximizing motive and real competition. We test these predictions by focusing on MFI interest-rate setting and using longitudinal data from 2030 MFI observations across 50 countries from 2002 to 2012. We find that country-level social globalization measure is negatively associated with the average MFI loan interest rates and that country-level economic globalization measure has an inverse U-shaped relationship with the average MFI loan interest rates. These results support our hypotheses and suggest a more nuanced view on how globalization affects affordability of microfinance.     

FDI Location and the Relevance of Spatial Linkages: Evidence from Provincial and Industry FDI in China

In this study both aggregate and industry‐level foreign direct investment (FDI) data are employed to investigate the spatial dependence of FDI hosts. The analysis contributes to the existing literature by focusing on the heterogeneous spatial correlation of FDI in different industries. Using more comprehensive FDI data across multiple industries and multiple provinces in China from 1999 to 2007, the results show a significant spatial correlation among provinces. Aggregate FDI tends to be regional trade platform oriented indicating neighboring provinces become competitors for FDI. In contrast, results based on industry‐level provincial FDI show stronger support for vertical or complex vertical FDI.     

Impact of Payment Technology on Seasonality of Currency in Circulation: Evidence from the USA and India

Journal of Quantitative Economics - This paper examines the impact of payment technology on seasonality in currency in circulation. We specify that total transaction in a period follows a Gompertz...     

Consumer engagement with brands on social network sites: A cross-cultural comparison of China and the USA

To advance theoretical understanding of consumer engagement on social media, this cross-cultural study evaluates how culture influences consumers’ engagement levels and activities on brand pages of social network sites. It further evaluates the underlying motivations and engagement mechanisms in two culturally distinct countries, China and the USA. Specifically, social media dependency, parasocial interaction, and community identification are examined as the key antecedents of consumer-brand engagement. The results confirm the effects of the proposed antecedents and reveal both cultural differences and similarities between Chinese and American consumers’ engagement with brand pages on social network sites.     

Global Versus Local Consumer Culture Positioning in a Transitional Market: Understanding the Influence of Consumer Nationalism

To shed cultural insights on the complex interplay between globalization and local ideologies, this study presents an online experiment that tested the comparative effects of global and local consumer culture positioning strategies in China. Reflecting the prevailing trend of nationalism around the globe, the study findings highlight the power of consumer nationalism on driving the effects of these culture-oriented positioning strategies. Furthermore, self-brand connection was found to be a critical mediator of the effects of consumer nationalism on brand evaluation. Based on the findings, this study provides strategic guidelines for both domestic and global brands to craft culturally relevant campaigns that capitalize on the growing trend of consumer nationalism in transitioning markets such as China.