Reliability of Macroeconomic Data: An Evidence from Nigeria's Debt Data Series*

Abstract: This paper evaluates the causes, nature and severity of divergencies among macroeconomic data on Nigeria, using the debt data series as the contextual focus. The findings indicate significant divergencies among the debt data series being published on Nigeria by various organizations. The findings also revealed that these divergencies and inconsistencies cannot be attributed to random factors, suggesting that there are basic differences in the data-generating and reporting procedures employed by each organization. These findings imply that debt data on Nigeria are not reliable, and that research findings based on them cannot be valid. More importantly, policy-oriented research may offer conflicting recommendations, thus jeopardizing the accuracy of policy decisions and projections. The paper suggest some remedial measures to overcome the data divergencies and inconsistencies. Résumé: Ce document analyse les causes, la nature et la profondeur des divergences entre les données macroéconomiques sur le Nigeria, en partant de la série de données relatives à la dette. Les conclusions font état d'importants écarts entre les séries de données publiées par diverses organisations sur la dette du Nigeria. Les résultats révèlent également que ces divergences et écarts ne peuvent être attribués à des facteurs aléatoires, ce qui donne à penser que des différences fondamentales existent dans les procédures de production et de communication des données utilisées par chaque organisation. Les conclusions impliquent que les données sur la dette du Nigeria ne sont pas fiables et que les recherches basées sur de telles données ne peuvent aboutir á des résultats valables. Plus important encore, la recherche tournée vers l'action peut conduire à des recommandations contradictoires, compromettant l'exactitude des décisions et des projections. Le document propose quelques mesures de redressement pour surmonter les divergences et les discordances entre les données.     

An indicator-based integrated assessment of ecosystem change and human-well-being: Selected case studies from Indonesia, China and Japan

The paper highlights the findings of a study from selected ecosystems in Indonesia, China and Japan. The study sought to trace changes to productive resources of ecosystems over a period of 50 years; and trace the dependence of well-being of local populations on the ecosystems for the same time period. Data was collected from land-use maps, records and participatory rapid/rural appraisal (PRA) surveys in multistakeholder forums. To illustrate the changes, an indicator-based assessment framework was developed that integrates data from biophysical and socio-economic parameters. We observed that the approach (1) provides a better representation of the preferences of different stakeholders of ecosystem services, (2) fosters validation of data between the different stakeholders and (3) enables a communication and planning process among the stakeholders to sustainably utilize and manage their ecosystems. The use of spatial maps validates the relevance and utility of diachronic observations of communities and other stakeholders directly dependent on ecosystems. At the same time, they can be used to strengthen local planning processes for the development of services in the ecosystem. Such research thereby also acts as a catalyst to a social process of coordinated action to address local issues of global relevance.     

Relaxing Export Supply Capacity Constraints and Promoting Export Expansion and Diversification in Africa: The Role of Special Export Development Strategies

Abstract: This paper examines the role of several export development strategies in relaxing export supply capacity constraints and promoting export expansion and diversification in Africa. It starts with a review of the analysis and recommendations in Can Africa Claim the 21st Century? ( World Bank, 2000 ) and an identification of subsisting supply obstacles. This forms the background against which the paper discusses changes in the growth, structure and destination of African exports during 2000–2005; explores the use of export development strategies (such as supply chain management, networks and clusters, as well as branding); and discusses the enhancement of market access of African exports regionally and globally. The paper concludes with an analysis of the prospects for relaxing Africa's export supply response capacity constraints and the feasibility/viability of the suggested strategies for expanding and diversifying the region's exports.     

Agricultural land-use change during economic reforms in Ghana

Land-use change is driven by many interrelated factors including national policies formulated in response to the forces of globalization. This study integrates remote sensing data with social surveys to identify the role of demographic, technology and market-related variables in cropland expansion during economic reforms in Ghana. Macroeconomic changes increased the commercial orientation of farming as the sources of food supply changed from import to domestic production. However interest rates liberalization increased the use of labor at the expense of fertilizer and other complementary inputs. Demographic variables were more important in explaining cropland change after structural adjustment. Public agricultural support services are required for sustainable market-induced agricultural change in Ghana.