How reliable and consistent are subjective measures of welfare in Europe and Central Asia?

This paper analyses the reliability and consistency of subjective well‐being measures, using the Life in Transition Survey. Drawing on two life satisfaction questions with alternative scales, our results do not reveal substantial biases in accounts of life satisfaction due to framing. Subjective individual assessments of household relative income position, on the other hand, do not appear to be reliable predictors of objective poverty or wealth. We find that subjective relative income position is only weakly correlated with objective welfare measures. There are differences in evaluations of the household's relative standing across different household members, and these differences are correlated with respondent characteristics.     

Online customer experience in e-retailing: implications for web entrepreneurship

Providing consumers with unique experiences and immersing them in original contexts are the goals of web entrepreneurs. Researchers and web entrepreneurs have expressed a particular interest in the online customer experience, agreeing on its importance in creating satisfaction, revisiting intention, e-trust and e-loyalty. This paper explores customer experience in the online retail context. The online customer experience is central in forming customers’ perceptions of expectations of online retailers because this experience is highly personal. However, empirical research on the online customer experience remains scarce. The objectives of this unique study are twofold. The first is to compare the effect of online customer experience on the responses of Romanian and Tunisian customers. The comparative analysis is based on two dimensions of the online customer experience assessment tool. These dimensions are cognitive experiential state (flow) and affective experiential state. The second objective is to examine the contribution of each of these two dimensions in explaining overall perceived value, e-satisfaction, e-trust and repurchase intention in the online context, as well as their effects on web entrepreneurial initiatives. The findings reveal the impact of cultural influences on the constructs embedded in the research framework. The implications for practice relate to the increasing importance of online customer experience in tailoring online marketing campaigns. The implications for web entrepreneurship are clearly emphasised by the pathways from online customer experience to entrepreneurial initiatives. These pathways capture the value of customer-generated content in designing innovative business models.

     

Variance swaps valuation under non-affine GARCH models and their diffusion limits

In this article, we investigate the pricing and convergence of general non-affine non-Gaussian GARCH-based discretely sampled variance swaps. Explicit solutions for fair strike prices under two different sampling schemes are derived using the extended Girsanov principle as the pricing kernel candidate. Following standard assumptions on time-varying GARCH parameters, we show that these quantities converge respectively to fair strikes of discretely and continuously sampled variance swaps that are constructed based on the weak diffusion limit of the underlying GARCH model. An empirical study which relies on a joint estimation using both historical returns and VIX data indicates that an asymmetric heavier tailed distribution is more appropriate for modelling the GARCH innovations. Finally, we provide several numerical exercises to support our theoretical convergence results in which we further investigate the effect of the quadratic variation approximation for the realized variance, as well as the impact of discrete versus continuous-time modelling of asset returns.     

Valuation of VIX and target volatility options with affine GARCH models

In this paper we propose semiclosed-form solutions, subject to an inversion of the Fourier transform, for the price of VIX options and target volatility options under affine GARCH models based on Gaussian and Inverse Gaussian distributions. We illustrate the advantage of the proposed analytic expressions by comparing them with those obtained from benchmark Monte–Carlo simulations. The empirical performance of the two affine GARCH models is tested using different calibration exercises based on historical returns and market quotes on VIX and SPX options.     

Portfolio Optimization under Solvency Constraints: A Dynamical Approach

We develop portfolio optimization problems for a nonlife insurance company seeking to find the minimum capital required that simultaneously satisfies solvency and portfolio performance constraints. Motivated by standard insurance regulations, we consider solvency capital requirements based on three criteria: ruin probability, conditional Value-at-Risk, and expected policyholder deficit ratio. We propose a novel semiparametric formulation for each problem and explore the advantages of implementing this methodology over other potential approaches. When liabilities follow a Lognormal distribution, we provide sufficient conditions for convexity for each problem. Using different expected return on capital target levels, we construct efficient frontiers when portfolio assets are modeled with a special class of multivariate GARCH models. We find that the correlation between asset returns plays an important role in the behavior of the optimal capital required and the portfolio structure. The stability and out-of-sample performance of our optimal solutions are empirically tested with respect to both the solvency requirement and portfolio performance, through a double rolling window estimation exercise.     

Les finances solidaires et l'économie sociale en roumanie: une réponse de «proximités» à la régionalisation d'une économie en transition?

La Roumanie apparaît en Europe centrale et orientale comme un territoire d'expérimentation d'une forme particulière d'économie sociale liant coopératives et organisations «not‐for‐profit». En transition économique et sociale, la Roumanie est également un pays en transition territoriale dont les systèmes de financements locaux ont quitté leur approche centralement planifiée, pour rejoindre un secteur financier solidaire dont les Instituts de Microfinance (IMFs) sont les principaux acteurs. La question à laquelle cet article tente d'apporter quelques éléments de réponse est celle du rôle de la finance solidaire locale dans la soutenabilité des transitions socio‐économiques territoriales en cours. Il s'agit d'envisager une économie humaine au sein de laquelle les conditions dignes de vie, nous amène à envisager un modèle particulier d'économie conviviale située à partir des outils conviviaux des finances solidaires locales.     

Multivariate Cox Hidden Markov models with an application to operational risk

ABSTRACT

Modeling multivariate time-series aggregate losses is an important actuarial topic that is very challenging due to the fact that losses can be serially dependent with heterogeneous dependence structures across loss types and business lines. In this paper, we investigate a flexible class of multivariate Cox Hidden Markov Models for the joint arrival process of loss events. Some of the nice properties possessed by this class of models, such as closed-form expressions, thinning properties and model versatility are discussed in details. We provide the expectation-maximization (EM) algorithm for efficient model calibration. Applying the proposed model to an operational risk dataset, we demonstrate that the model offers sufficient flexibility to capture most characteristics of the observed loss frequencies. By modeling the log-transformed loss severities through mixture of Erlang distributions, we can model the aggregate losses. Finally, out-of-sample testing shows that the proposed model is adequate to predict short-term future operational risk losses.     

Core decisional values and deciders demographic variables in Romanian organizauons

The present study attempts to build an exploratory model of leadership analysis, based on which the organizational leaders and managers can answer three critical questions for leadership practice： （1） Which are the core decisional values the top management should take into account when adopting critical decisions？ （2） Which latent attitudes （constructs or factors） might generate these values in CEOs＇ and followers＇ behavior？ （3） Do the latent attitudes differ with the respondents＇ gender, age and educational background？ The research belongs to the field of value based leadership theories. The data is collected from a sample of 94 CEOs and 599 direct followers from three complex fields of activity： mining and forestry, manufacturing and construction, respectively, services. The main outcomes are： （1） The most important decisional values should be （in order）： customer satisfaction, firm＇s profitability, product/service quality, sales volume growth and cost control; （2） These values are generated by the following latent attitudes （of CEOs and followers）： social responsibility for community and environment; ethical responsibility for minorities and women; market performance responsibility and, respectively, responsibility for employees and customers; （3） Market performance responsibility significantly differs according to respondents gender; social responsibility for community and environment significantly differs with respondents age, while both types of responsibility significantly differ according to respondents educational background. It seems that ethical responsibility for minorities and women and, respectively, responsibility for employees and customers are not influenced by respondents＇ demographic variables.     

Estimation bias in choice models with last choice feedback

The study compares two estimation methods for choice models with last choice feedback, using simulated and real data. The first method ignores the impact of unobserved heterogeneity on observed choices via presample choices, while the second method approximates this impact by a stochastic relationship. In panels with less than 10 choices per panelist, the first method overstates the impact of last choice on current choice and understates the impact of intrinsic preferences (i.e., brand intercepts). The second method performs significantly better than the first method. Under both methods, an increase in the number of heterogeneous coefficients in the model tends to increase the bias in the estimates. The largest bias occurs when lagged choice coefficients are heterogeneous.     

Financial development,institutional quality and maximizing-growth trade-off in government finance

This paper studies monetary and fiscal policies in an endogenous growth model with transaction costs. We show that the relation between long-run economic growth and both monetary and fiscal policies is subject to threshold effects, a result that gives account of a number of recent empirical findings. Furthermore, the model shows that, to finance public expenditures, growth-maximizing governments must choose relatively high seigniorage (respectively income taxation), if “institutional quality” and “financial development” indicators are low (respectively high). Thus, our model may explain why some governments resort to seigniorage and inflationary finance, and others rather resort to high tax rates, as a result of growth-maximizing strategies in different structural environments (notably concerning institutional and financial development contexts). In addition, the model allows examining how the optimal mix of government finance changes in response to different public debt contexts. A short empirical section confirms our theoretical results.