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1.
Control groups can provide counterfactual evidence for assessing the impact of an event or policy change on a target variable. We argue that fitting a multivariate time series model offers potential gains over a direct comparison between the target and a weighted average of controls. More importantly, it highlights the assumptions underlying methods such as difference in differences and synthetic control, suggesting ways to test these assumptions. Gains from simple and transparent time series models are analysed using examples from the literature, including the California smoking law of 1989 and German reunification. We argue that selecting controls using a time series strategy is preferable to existing data‐driven regression methods. 相似文献
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Cheng Lai 《Contemporary Accounting Research》2020,37(4):2213-2223
Valuation ratios divide stock price by accounting metrics such as earnings, earnings growth, and book value. This study adapts the general valuation framework in Ohlson and Juettner-Nauroth (2005) and Ohlson (2005) to present a unified approach for developing valuation ratios based on fundamentals, referred to as fundamental valuation ratios. One starts with a valuation model that is driven by an accounting metric a and its abnormal growth, then divides the valuation model by a to get a fundamental valuation ratio. For any valuation ratio, one can find a corresponding fundamental valuation ratio, as long as the valuation model is based on the same metric a as the valuation ratio denominator. 相似文献
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Carmen Hubbard John Davis Siyi Feng David Harvey Anne Liddon Andrew Moxey Mercy Ojo Myles Patton George Philippidis Charles Scott Shailesh Shrestha Michael Wallace 《EuroChoices》2018,17(2):19-26
There is little doubt that Brexit would have significant implications for UK agriculture, a sector with strong trade links to the EU and strong reliance on CAP income support. This article reports preliminary results from employing a Computable General Equilibrium Model, a Partial Equilibrium Model and Farm Level Models to explore selected trade and domestic policy scenarios post‐Brexit. These allow for the estimation of changes in producer prices, production and farm incomes against a baseline scenario of continued EU membership. Under a Free Trade Agreement with the EU, agricultural impacts are relatively modest. By contrast, unilateral removal of import tariffs has significant negative impacts on prices, production and incomes. Adoption of the EU's WTO tariff schedule for all imports favours net importers (e.g. dairy) and harms net exporters (e.g. sheep). Given the strong dependence of most UK farms on direct payments, their removal worsens negative impacts of new trade arrangements and offsets positive impacts. Impacts vary across different types and sizes of farm, but also regionally. However, the period of adjustment to new trade and domestic policy conditions may prove very challenging for a large number of farm businesses. 相似文献
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Housing Transactions and the Changing Decisions of Young Households in Britain: The Microeconomic Evidence 总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1
In this second of two related papers in this issue, the causes of declining levels of housing transactions in Britain during the 1990s are explored. The lower transaction levels resulted partly from the changing behavior of young individuals. Both household formation and owner–occupation rates of these groups also fell sharply. Using panel data, we investigate the causes of reduced new household formation and owner–occupation, finding that changes in the income distribution away from young cohorts have been an important factor. 相似文献
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Mark Andrew 《Scottish journal of political economy》2004,51(1):24-48
This paper attempts to explain why home ownership rates among young adults fell in the early 1990s when various indicators suggested it had become more affordable. As a potential explanation, we focus on the relatively slower growth in their incomes and argue that this could signal a fundamental change in behaviour, a change in route adopted into owner occupation, induced by structural economic change. In examining the implications for housing tenure, we use a conditional fixed effects multinomial logit model to exploit the information on the tenure choice and the timing of transitions in the British Household Panel Survey. Our results reveal that relatively slower income growth contributed significantly to this decline and that ignoring the intertemporal correlation in micro‐panels generates inconsistent results. 相似文献
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Andrew Mwaba 《Revue africaine de developpement》2005,17(3):536-551
Abstract: The pronouncement by the G‐8 Summit at Gleneagles in July 2005 on debt cancellation under the HIPC Initiative, affirmed by the G‐8 Ministers of Finance in Washington in September, should signal the beginning of debt relief for the world's heavily indebted poor countries (HIPC), mostly African. It is expected that debt cancellation should return the beneficiary countries to debt sustainability and afford their governments the fiscal space to invest in basic infrastructure and social services. Countries could significantly enhance their prospects for maintaining debt sustainability mainly by adopting debt management strategies that de‐emphasize excessive borrowing, checking the expansion of unproductive public sector activities and the associated fiscal deficits, financial restructuring to reduce the bias against autonomous capital flows, and taking deliberate actions to expand exports. 相似文献
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从中国经济与产业发展前景看石油安全 总被引:3,自引:0,他引:3
一、中国经济与产业发展面对更为严峻的能源约束21世纪头二十年是中国经济与产业发展的重要战略机遇期,同时也将面临许多新的重要变化和挑战。在城镇化水平不断提高、居民消费结构发生明显变化、工业化步入关键时期的大背景下,中国经济与产业发展对能源的依赖程度将加深,从而面对较以前更为严峻的能源约束。(一)城镇化产生大量新增能源需求“十一五”时期中国经济发展目标是在优化结构、提高效益和降低消耗的基础上,实现2010年人均国内生产总值比2000年翻一番。考虑人口增长因素“,十一五”时期国内生产总值年均增长率只要达到7.5%左右,即可… 相似文献