Diamonds Are a Rebel's Best Friend

Many countries that produce rough diamonds have experienced a highly adverse pattern of economic development. In this article, we propose that the primary reason for the negative impact is that diamonds easily become the prize in predatory struggles between loot‐seeking rebels and more or less kleptocratic governments. In weakly institutionalised countries like Angola, the Democratic Republic of Congo and Sierra Leone, this theory works well, but it does not explain the impressive growth record of diamond‐rich Botswana and Namibia. For a deeper understanding of these countries’ success, we point at the crucial differences between kimberlite and alluvial mining and the effect of having the world‐leading firm De Beers as a partner. Indeed, we argue that in countries like Angola, diamonds can never be a major vehicle for sustained growth, although the ongoing Kimberley process for eliminating conflict diamonds probably has contributed to making several African countries more stable.     

Flexibility at different stages in the life cycle of projects: An empirical illustration of the “freedom to maneuver”

Many textbooks on project management present illustrations concerning the relative size of project attributes during different project phases. The derived models all have attributes in common, such as uncertainty, significance of decisions, and degree of freedom to maneuver, that are typically high in the beginning of the project and low in the end. At the same time, variables such as the accumulated cost and available information begin at low levels and end up at a high level at the end of the project. Based on empirical data from projects, this paper illustrates and quantifies one of these attributes, the freedom to maneuver, in different project phases.     

The Impact of Non-Normality and Estimation Methods in SEM on Satisfaction Research in Marketing

This paper discusses consequences of violating the normal distribution assumption imbedded in Structural Equation Modeling (SEM). Based on real data from a large sample customer satisfaction survey we follow the procedures as suggested in leading textbooks. We document consequences of this practice and discuss its impact on decision making in marketing.     

Chernobyl Effects on Domestic and Inbound Tourism in Sweden -- A Time Series Analysis

This paper estimates the impact of the Chernobyl nuclear accident on domestic and international tourism in Sweden. From ARIMA time series forecasts, outlier search, and intervention analysis based on regional monthly accommodation data from 1978–1989, no effect on domestic tourism is found. However, there is an enduring deterrence effect on incoming tourism. The loss of gross revenue from incoming tourism because of the Chernobyl accident, is estimated to 2.5 billion SEK.     

Miscounselling in the German Insurance Market—Utility-Orientated Implications for the Meaning of Miscounselling

Miscounselling results from the fact that consumers have difficulty matching their needs and preferences with the characteristics of the products and have to rely upon an intermediary. The ideal contract can be found by applying the theory of the consumer by Lancaster and, thus, using different amounts of the contract characteristics. Using a spatial representation of the contractual alternatives yields a model framework. The main question is how to differentiate between advice that improves the consumers’ situation and those that are wrong in order to define an accuracy level for the liability rule imposed by the Insurance Contract Act. After identifying the relevant variables via case studies, it is possible to state a general definition of miscounselling: miscounselling can be defined as the provision of any additional information that does not help to reduce the utility loss referring to an initial situation. Considering this definition, one can think about rewording the current liability rule.     

Informal Caregiving and the Retirement Decision

The probability of providing informal care grows with one's own age. While labor market effects due to caregiving are moderate, they could be concentrated in the years close to retirement. Therefore, I investigate whether care in the previous year leads to retirement in the year after by using German Socio‐Economic Panel data from 2001 to 2009 and discrete‐time hazard models. The effect of care on the retirement decision is indeed much higher than its effect on the labor or working hours of middle‐aged individuals. Women are affected to a larger extent but the retirement decision of men also reacts to their caregiving obligations.     

Consequences of ambivalence on satisfaction and loyalty

The key objective of this study was to understand the consequences of subjective ambivalence on customer satisfaction, loyalty, and the satisfaction–loyalty relationship. The conceptual and theoretical discussions were derived largely from recent research in social psychology and integrated with marketing literature on satisfaction and loyalty. Given that product evaluations are typically positive and extreme, these findings indicate a negative relationship between ambivalence and satisfaction. Even though a great deal of the variance in ambivalence is shared with satisfaction, ambivalence did prove to have an independent and direct effect on loyalty. Ambivalent consumers are not only less loyal because they are less satisfied, but for other reasons, as well. Ambivalence was not found to moderate the satisfaction–loyalty relationship. The results of the study underscore the importance of taking ambivalence into consideration when measuring satisfaction and modeling satisfaction–loyalty relationships. © 2005 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.     

Maintaining a Reputation for Consistently Beating Earnings Expectations and the Slippery Slope to Earnings Manipulation

This paper investigates whether maintaining a reputation for consistently beating analysts' earnings expectations can motivate executives to move from “within GAAP” earnings management to “outside of GAAP” earnings manipulation. We analyze firms subject to SEC enforcement actions and find that these firms consistently beat analysts' quarterly earnings forecasts in the three years prior to the manipulation period and continue to do so by smaller “beats” during the manipulation period. We find that manipulating firms beat expectations around 86 percent of the time in the 12 quarters prior to the manipulation period (versus 75 percent for control firms) and that manipulation often ends with a miss in expectations. We document that executives of manipulating firms face strong stock market and CEO pressure to perform. Prior to the manipulation period, these firms have high analyst optimism, growing institutional interest, and high market valuations, along with powerful CEOs. Further, we find that maintaining a reputation for beating expectations is more important than CEO overconfidence and is incremental to CEO equity incentives for explaining manipulation. Our results suggest that pressure to maintain a reputation for beating analysts' expectations can encourage aggressive accounting and, ultimately, earnings manipulation.     

Informal home care and labor-force participation of household members

In Germany, informal home care is preferred to professional care services in the public discussion as well as in legal care regulations. However, only minor importance is ascribed to the opportunity costs caregivers face. Therefore, this article explores the influence home care has on the labor supply of caregivers who cohabitate with the care recipient. I use data from the German Socio-Economic Panel from 2001 to 2007, which allows researchers to merge the characteristics of both groups for the first time. Owing to diverging gender roles, I examine female and male caregivers separately. The results show that having an individual in need of care in the household does not decrease labor supply to an economically relevant quantity. As providing care might be endogenous to the labor-supply decision, I test for endogeneity by using characteristics of care recipients as instruments and I additionally test for sample attrition. Moreover, the panel structure allows me to control for unobserved heterogeneity.     

与德里达关于消化力的局限的对话

90年代早期,在准备《如黄鼠狼吞蛋:一篇关于忧郁及同类相食的文章》一书时我们与晚年的德里达有过一些书信往来。那时他正研究在诠释学与德国唯心论中他所谓的"同类相食的比喻"。他很感激我们提供给他的一些诺瓦利斯残篇。