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Michael Berlemann 《Wirtschaftsdienst》2011,91(12):858-862
Selten hat die Vergabe des Preises für Wirtschaftswissenschaften der schwedischen Reichsbank eine so kritische Diskussion
ausgel?st wie in diesem Jahr. W?hrend das Preiskomitee die Leistungen von Thomas Sargent und Christopher Sims auf dem Gebiet
der empirischen Makro?konomik würdigt, sehen Kritiker in ihnen Mainstream-Theoretiker, die Politikineffektivit?t predigen
und an effi ziente M?rkte glauben. Nach ihrer Auffassung ist die Vergabe gerade vor dem Hintergrund der Finanzkrise der letzten
Jahre hochgradig problematisch. Hat sich das Preiskomitee tats?chlich geirrt oder ist die Kritik letztlich unberechtigt? 相似文献
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In this note we show at the example of an experimental stock market, conducted on the occasion of the World Soccer Championship 2010 in South Africa, how tournament incentives might contribute to the formation of asset price bubbles. 相似文献
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Empirical studies of the influence of central bank independence and inflation have yet delivered quite inconclusive results. We argue this to be due to the failure to focus an actual central bank independence and to take the degree of conservatism of the government and the central bank into account. In this paper, we propose a new methodology of measuring the joint degree of central bank independence and conservatism from observed central bank behaviour. After applying the method to 13 OECD countries, we find our indicator to be negatively correlated with a legal index of central bank independence, but positively correlated with the turnover rate. As the latter exclusively focuses on factual central bank independence, the remaining difference might be attributed to conservatism. 相似文献
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Unraveling the Relationship Between Presidential Approval and the Economy: A Multidimensional Semiparametric Approach 下载免费PDF全文
Michael Berlemann Sören Enkelmann Torben Kuhlenkasper 《Journal of Applied Econometrics》2015,30(3):468-486
Empirical studies analyzing the determinants of US presidential popularity have delivered quite inconclusive results concerning the role of economic variables by assuming linear relationships. We employ penalized spline smoothing in the context of semiparametric additive mixed models and allow for flexible functional forms and thus possible nonlinear effects for the economic determinants. By controlling for the well‐known politically motivated covariables, we find strong evidence for nonlinear and negative effects of unemployment, inflation and government consumption on presidential approval. Additionally, we present new results in favor of nonparametric trivariate interaction effects between the macroeconomic covariables. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献
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K. Peren Arin Michael Berlemann Faik Koray Torben Kuhlenkasper 《Journal of Applied Econometrics》2013,28(5):883-899
One of the major challenges of empirical tax research is the identification and calculation of appropriate tax data. While there is consensus that average marginal tax rates are most suitable for studying the effects of tax policy on economic growth, because of data limitations the calculation of marginal tax rates has been limited to the USA and the UK. This paper provides calculations of average marginal tax rates for the four Scandinavian countries using the methodologies of Seater (1982, 1985) and Barro and Sahasakul (1983, 1986). Then, by pooling the newly calculated tax rates for the Scandinavian countries with the data for the USA and the UK, we investigate the effects of tax policy shocks on the per capita GDP growth rate. Our results suggest that an increase in average marginal tax rates has a negative impact on economic growth. Employing additive mixed panel models with penalized splines as estimation approach, we show that changes in tax rates have nonlinear effects. Increasing average marginal tax rates turn out to be the most distorting at relatively moderate tax rates. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献
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Michael Berlemann 《Applied economics letters》2019,26(12):1026-1032
Whenever governments or international organizations provide aid in the aftermath of natural disasters, they typically justify this support by humanitarian motives. Previous empirical research found that media reports on natural disasters have a systematic impact on the amount of provided disaster aid. While this is unproblematic as long as media reports are unbiased and thus deliver an undistorted picture of the occurrence and severity of worldwide occurring disasters, systematic reporting biases would lead to distorted aid flows and perhaps other distortions like an insufficient perception of a region in international organizations. Based on data on three US news shows we show that disaster reporting is subject to a distance bias, e.g., the likelihood that a disaster is covered by the media depends on the distance between the country where the media are located and the country where the disasters occur. We also find evidence that besides the distance bias the state of economic development of a country and importance as export markets have a positive effect on the probability that US news shows are reporting on a natural disaster. As a result, international aid flows might be systematically biased and not distributed in line with the needs of the victims. 相似文献
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The appellate review system is intended to serve as an efficient remedy for imperfect judicial decision making. However, it can fulfil this task only when appeals are ex ante unpredictable to the judge, and thus can be expected to occur primarily in case of a bad verdict. Using data from case records of a German trial court, we show that the probability of appeal can be predicted based on easily observable exogenous factors. Controlling for the complexity of a legal case, we find that judges also tend to decrease their effort when the ex ante probability of appeal is low. Thus, our empirical evidence indicates an inefficiency in the appellate review system because trial judges allocate their effort to cases not exclusively according to case complexity, but particularly according to the ex ante probability of being reviewed. 相似文献
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Most empirical studies found that monetary policy has a significant effect on house prices while stock markets remain unaffected by interest rate shocks. In this paper we conduct a more detailed analysis by studying various sub-segments of the real estate market. Employing a new dataset for Switzerland we estimate vector autoregressive models and find positive interest rate shocks to have adverse effects on house and condominium prices on the one hand and rental prices on the other. Commercial property prices as stock markets do not react on interest rate variations. 相似文献
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Variable rational partisan theory of political business cycles suggests differences in inflation under left-wing and right-wing governments. Fluctuations of economic activity result from uncertainty about the electoral outcome and the exact timing of elections. However, the core hypothesis that post-electoral booms and recessions depend upon the degree of electoral uncertainty has rarely been tested. Using polling data, we provide empirical evidence in favor of the hypothesis of the existence of variable rational partisan cycles. 相似文献
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