Embedding effects in choice experiment valuations of environmental preservation projects

This paper addresses the question, whether attribute values derived from a CE study of one nature restoration and preservation project depend on the overall scale of nature preservation activities in which it is embedded. A split-sample CE study was undertaken in which a particular nature preservation project was evaluated in three plausible and strictly different embedding contexts. Respondents' attention was drawn to a varying number of forthcoming substitute preservation projects to be implemented prior to the one in question. Results show that while WTP for the project in focus is sensitive to the presentation of substitute projects as such, there does not seem to be any clear and unidirectional relationship between WTP and the number of substitute projects. Furthermore, effects vary across the project's attributes.     

Forecasting performances of three automated modelling techniques during the economic crisis 2007–2009

In this work we consider the forecasting of macroeconomic variables during an economic crisis. The focus is on a specific class of models, the so-called single hidden-layer feed-forward autoregressive neural network models. What makes these models interesting in the present context is the fact that they form a class of universal approximators and may be expected to work well during exceptional periods such as major economic crises. Neural network models are often difficult to estimate, and we follow the idea of White (2006) of transforming the specification and nonlinear estimation problem into a linear model selection and estimation problem. To this end, we employ three automatic modelling devices. One of them is White’s QuickNet, but we also consider Autometrics, which is well known to time series econometricians, and the Marginal Bridge Estimator, which is better known to statisticians. The performances of these three model selectors are compared by looking at the accuracy of the forecasts of the estimated neural network models. We apply the neural network model and the three modelling techniques to monthly industrial production and unemployment series from the G7 countries and the four Scandinavian ones, and focus on forecasting during the economic crisis 2007–2009. The forecast accuracy is measured using the root mean square forecast error. Hypothesis testing is also used to compare the performances of the different techniques.     

Determinants of Consumer Attitudes and Purchase Intentions With Regard to Genetically Modified Food – Results of a Cross-National Survey

Previous research has shown consumers to be highly sceptical towards genetic modification in food production. So far, however, little research has tried to explain how consumers form attitudes and make decisions with regard to genetically modified foods. The paper presents the results of a survey which was carried out in Denmark, Germany, Italy, and the United Kingdom to investigate the formation of consumer attitudes towards genetic modification in food production and of purchase decisions with regard to genetically modified yoghurt and beer. Altogether, 2031 consumers were interviewed in the four countries.Results show that attitude formation and decision-making are more comparable among Danish, German, and British consumers than with Italian consumers. Italian consumers turned out to be significantly less negative towards genetic modification in foods than particularly Danish and German consumers. Across countries, the attitude towards genetic modification in food production was deeply embedded in more general attitudes held by the consumers, in particular attitude towards nature and attitude towards technology. These general attitudes were found to influence perceived risks and benefits of the technology. Purchase decisions with regard to the two product examples were almost exclusively determined by attitudes towards purchasing the products. These were, in turn, significantly influenced by the overall attitude towards genetic modification in food production through their effects on beliefs held by consumers regarding the quality and trustworthiness of the products.The results suggest that attitudes towards genetically modified foods are quite strong, despite their lack of basis in actual product experience. Likewise, the strong relation of product-specific attitudes to the attitude towards using genetic modification in food production suggests that at present consumers reject the technology overall rather than evaluate products on a case-by-case basis. This situation may, however, be changed by a possible increased availability of genetically modified food products on the consumer market.     

Forest Value and Optimal Rotations in Continuous Cover Forestry

The Faustmann forest rotation model is a celebrated contribution in economics. The model provides a forest value expression and allows a solution to the optimal rotation problem valid for perpetual rotations of even-aged forest stands. However, continuous forest cover forest management systems imply uneven-aged dynamics, and while a number of numerical studies have analysed specific continuous cover forest ecosystems in search of optimal management regimes, no one has tried to capture key dynamics of continuous cover forestry in simple mathematical models. In this paper we develop a simple, but rigorous mathematical model of the continuous cover forest, which strictly focuses on the area use dynamics that such an uneven-aged forest must have in equilibrium. This implies explicitly accounting for area reallocation and for weighting the productivity of each age class by the area occupied. We present results for unrestricted as well as area-restricted versions of the models. We find that land values are unambiguously higher in the continuous cover forest models compared with the even-aged models. Under area restrictions, the optimal rotation age in a continuous cover forest model is unambiguously lower than the corresponding area restricted Faustmann solution, while the result for the area unrestricted model is ambiguous.     

The effects of current income and expected change in future income on stated preferences for environmental improvements

We formulate and test the hypothesis that expectations regarding changes in future income influences the WTP for environmental goods. For valuation of environmental goods in forests and other habitats in Denmark, we find that both current income and expected changes in future income are significant determinants for preferences. The effect of income on WTP seems to be caused by changes in preferences for environmental attributes rather than by marginal utility of income. The results suggest that to evaluate the distributional impacts of environmental improvements, researchers need a better measure of expected future consumption options than current income.     

Impacts of BSE on World Trade in Cattle and Beef: Implications for the Canadian Economy

This paper evaluates the impact of BSE‐related trade restrictions on Canada using a general equilibrium model. It links selected results of the Global Trade Analysis Project (GTAP) approach, a global computable general equilibrium model, with Basic Model of Regional Trade (BMRT), a Canadian regional model. We find first, that while producers were hurt a lot, there are other general equilibrium considerations (gains to processors and/or consumers) and sectoral adjustments that at the regional level tend to partially offset the losses suffered by producers. We also assess the extent to which opening of the U.S. border is important relative to access to the rest of the world. Our results indicate that the losses to the Canadian economy are around $1 billion and they were reduced significantly when Canada resumed beef trade with the United States, as a result of various government allegations. Le présent article évalue, à l'aide d'un modèle d'équilibre général, les répercussions des restrictions commerciales imposées envers le Canada à la suite de la découverte d'un cas d'ESB. Il établit un lien entre les résultats sélectionnés du Projet d'analyse des échanges commerciaux (GTAP), un modèle d'équilibre général mondial et programmable, et ceux du Modèle de base des échanges régionaux (Basic Model of Regional Trade – BMRT), un modèle régional canadien. Bien que les producteurs aient été très touchés, il faut considérer d'autres éléments d'équilibre général (gains réalisés par les transformateurs et/ou les consommateurs) et des ajustements sectoriels qui, à l'échelle régionale, tendent à compenser partiellement les pertes subies par les producteurs. Nous avons évalué l'étendue de l'importance de l'ouverture des frontières des États‐Unis par rapport à l'accès au marché du reste du monde. Selon nos résultats, les pertes pour l'économie canadienne avoisinent le milliard de dollars et ont considérablement diminué lorsque le Canada a repris le commerce duf avec les États‐Unis à la suite de diverses allégations de la part du gouvernement.     

Marketing Biotech Soybeans with Functional Health Attributes

This study investigates possible marketing strategies for biotechnology (biotech) functional foods in the U.S. market. Means‐end chain theory is used to translate consumer product knowledge into self‐knowledge, where knowledge is presumed to be organized in a hierarchy with concrete thoughts linked to more abstract thoughts in a sequence progressing from means to ends. A sample of 60 households was randomly drawn from the population of a Midwest town. The random sample was drawn from a population of females aged 20 to 50 with children and who regularly purchase yogurt products. Eight products with various attributes and production technologies were ranked by the participants prior to a hard laddering interview. The study found that biotech functional foods were generally acceptable to the participants. Functional attributes, such as higher protein, increased calcium, and lower cholesterol, were valued by the consumers. Soy was considered inferior on the basis of taste for some segments of consumers unfamiliar with soymilk. On the other hand, consumers already purchasing soymilk were more willing to purchase functional soy attributes and have more complex purchasing decisions (cognitive maps). These consumers associate soy with attaining values of “better health,”“taking care of family,”“happiness,” and “more choice.” La présente étude a examiné les stratégies de marketing possibles pour les aliments fonctionnels issus de la biotechnologie sur le marchéétatsunien. La méthode de la chaîne moyens‐fins a été utilisée pour traduire la connaissance du consommateur sur le produit en connaissance de soi, où la connaissance est présumée être structurée en hiérarchie d'idées concrètes liées à des idées plus abstraites dans un ordre progressant des moyens vers les fins. Nous avons formé un échantillon aléatoire de soixante ménages d'une ville du Midwest. L'échantillon aléatoire a été sélectionné parmi une population de femmes âgées de 20 à 50 ans qui avaient des enfants et qui achetaient régulièrement du yogourt. Huit produits renfermant des attributs variés et issus de technologies de production variées ont d'abord été classés par les participants avant de procéder aux entrevues effectuées selon la technique du laddering. Les résultats ont montré que les aliments fonctionnels issus de la biotechnologie convenaient généralement aux participants. Les attributs des aliments fonctionnels tels que plus élevé en protéines, les plus élevé en calcium et faible en cholestérol étaient valorisés par les consommateurs. Le soja est arrivé en dernier pour le goût chez certains consommateurs qui connaissaient mal le lait de soja. Par contre, consommateurs qui achetaient déjà du lait de soja étaient plus enclins à acheter les attributs fonctionnels du soja et avaient des décisions d'achats plus complexes (cartes cognitives). Ces consommateurs associaient le soja à des valeurs telles que ? meilleure santé?, ? s'occuper de la famille ?, ? bonheur ? et ? choix élargi ?.     

Consumer Attitudes and Decision-Making With Regard to Genetically Engineered Food Products – A Review of the Literature and a Presentation of Models for Future Research

Few studies have to date explained consumer attitudes and purchase decisions with regard to genetically engineered food products. However, the increased marketing of genetically engineered food products and the considerable concern that consumers seem to express with regard to the technology call for the development of a theoretical basis for research into these issues. The aim of this article is to present three models which the authors have developed to explain consumer attitudes, buying behaviour, and attitude change with regard to genetically engineered food products.All three models build on established consumer behaviour theory and on existing and comparable research in the field. Consumer attitudes toward genetic engineering in food products are explained in an attitude model that builds on Fishbein's multiattribute attitude model but deviates from Fishbein's model in a number of ways. Consumer buying behaviour with regard to specific genetically engineered food products is explained in a behavioural intention model which uses Ajzen's Theory of planned Behavior as its point of departure. How consumers' attitudes towards genetically engineered food products are affected by various information strategies, finally, is explained in an attitude change model which integrates aspects of the Elaboration Likelihood Model and Social Judgment Theory. The model specifically takes into account the impact of source credibility and various informational factors, such as persuasive content of the information provided, on attitudes.