“De‐risking” Corporate Pension Plans: Options for CFOs

Until the stock market bubble burst in 2000–2002, most CFOs viewed their defined benefit pension plans as profit centers and relatively risk‐free sources of income. Since neither pension assets nor liabilities were reported on corporate balance sheets, and expected returns on pension stocks could be substituted for actual returns when reporting net income, the risks associated with DB plans were masked by GAAP accounting and thus assumed to have no bearing on corporate capital structure. But when stock prices and corporate profits fell together, the risks associated with conventional stock‐heavy pension plans showed up first in reduced pension surpluses (or, in many cases, deficits) and then later in higher required cash contributions and lower reported earnings. As a consequence, today's investors (and rating agencies) are viewing pension and other legacy liabilities as corporate debt, and demands for transparency and increased funding have triggered accounting changes and proposed legislative reforms that will further unmask the economics. This article aims to provide both private‐sector and public‐sector CFOs with suggestions for reducing and controlling the cost of providing for the retirement of their employees. Profitable, tax‐paying companies with DB plans should consider (1) funding any unfunded liabilities (if necessary, by issuing debt) and (2) reducing pension equity and interest rate exposures by shifting some (if not all) pension assets into bonds and defeasing the pension liability (achieving a tax arbitrage in the process). And in cases where the expected costs of maintaining DB plans outweigh the benefits, companies should consider freezing or terminating their plans and switching to a defined contribution (DC) or some form of hybrid plan. The authors also propose similar changes for public pension plans, where underfunding and mismatch problems are greater, less transparent, and in some ways less tractable than those of corporate DB plans.     

Evaluating transport user benefits and social surplus in a transport market—The case of the Norwegian ferries

The article first infers how consumer surplus in a market is linked to revenue under different assumptions about fare elasticity and when using different types of demand functions. This information is added to producer surplus in order to derive social surplus. The method, thus, produces a simple approach for authorities to assess social surplus in a market and its benefits to the users. A modified exponential demand function is applied to calculate consumer surplus and social surplus for 97 ferry services in Norway regulated by the state. The calculations are based on empirical data concerning ferry fare, revenue data at service level and reasonable assumptions about fare point elasticity for services covering different distances.In 2007, these services generated welfare for the users (consumer surplus) and the society (social surplus) amounting to about 5.8 billion NOK and 4.3 billion NOK, respectively. Consumer surplus and social surplus varied considerably amongst the services. Only 3 of the 97 services operate with positive profits and, hence, without subsidies. About 21 of the services contribute negatively to social surplus. Many of these unprofitable services are the only transport alternatives in rural areas and could be argued to continue operation according to politically decided regional measures. Implicitly, maintaining all these 21 services means that the welfare for the people in these areas is valued as up to four times greater than the welfare of the people in the rest of society.     

破除关于美国经济复苏持续性的三种误解

【摩根士丹利10月21日】关于美国经济复苏持续性与强度的讨论中存在三种误解：其一，存货周期的积极作用很快就会消失；其二，在信贷紧缩的压力下，消费者去杠杆化进程将持续若干年；其三，去年一些零售企业的倒闭导致了消费支出数据的高估。如果这些观点成立，将严重动摇我们关于美国经济将持续复苏的判断。目前的股票、信贷工具及其他风险资产的价格中已经包含了对大量利好消息的预期，一旦经济数据再次陷入疲软，无祭会导致风险资产的大幅回调。     

石油冲击的结果，是衰退、通胀还是滞胀？

【摩根士丹利5月29日】飙升的油价正在唤起上世纪70年代那些令人不快的回忆。当时，石油冲击引发了经济衰退、两位数的通胀以及持续的滞胀。原油价格继去年翻了一番之后，今年年初以来，又上涨了30美元／桶，即30％。如此幅度的暴涨几乎总会导致经济增长率的大幅下滑。     

Protection of the consumer against unfair standard terms

The protection of the consumer against unfair standard terms is one of the most important aims of the world-wide consumer movement. The present paper gives a survey of possible means of regulation and of international trends in legislation and administrative control. It comes to the conclusion that effective consumer protection cannot be achieved by information only, but that restrictions with respect to the contents of standard term contracts are indispensable. Observance of these restrictions must be secured by an effective procedural control (mandatory authorization of standard terms in advance or at least an administrative control by consumer protection authorities).

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Verbraucherschutz vor unlauteren Allgemeinen Geschäftsbedingungen

Zusammenfassung Der Schutz des Verbrauchers vor unlauteren Allgemeinen Geschäftsbedingungen gehört zu den wichtigsten Zielenderweltweiten Verbraucherbewegung. Der vorliegende Beitrag gibt einen Überblick über bestehende Regelungsmöglichkeiten und internationale Entwicklungstendenzen. Er kommt zu dem Schluß, daß ein wirksamer Schutz des Verbrauchers in diesem Bereich durch bloße Information nicht erreicht werden kann, sondern daß den Allgemeinen Geschäftsbedingungen inhaltlich bestimmte Grenzen zu setzen sind, deren Einhaltung durch eine effektive verfahrensrechtliche Kontrolle (Genehmigungspflicht oder doch wenigstens Kontrolle durch eine Verbraucherschutzbehörde) gesichert werden muß.

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Eike von Hippel is Professor of Law at the University of Hamburg and Staff Member of the Max-Planck-Institut für ausländisches und internationales Privatrecht, Mittelweg 187, D-2000 Hamburg 13, West Germany. The contribution was given as a speech at a conference of the Deutsch-Britische Juristenvereinigung and the British-German Jurists' Association in London, November 19, 1977.     

Do real payments really matter? A re-examination of the compromise effect in hypothetical and binding choice settings

Numerous empirical studies have confirmed the existence of the compromise effect, which stipulates that options positioned between extreme alternatives in a product space are perceived as more attractive, hence becoming more likely to be chosen by consumers. However, literature on the topic frequently addresses the limited realism of prior work due to the artificial designs that were used. In a laboratory-based replication study, we examine the compromise effect across several categories in a more market-like scenario, in which experienced consumers make unforced decisions between real brands. In particular, we investigate whether the compromise effect varies in strength across the choice settings, depending on whether a hypothetical choice setting or a binding setting (in which subjects face buying obligations in terms of real payments for products) has been applied. While our results prove the robustness of the compromise effect for both choice frames, its strength differs significantly. Specifically, the compromise effect is evidently not as strong when real payments are introduced in binding choice settings. In addition, analysis of moderating factors confirms that compromise effects are stronger for categories where subjects are more in agreement about the relative quality of the options.     

走向马克思《资本论》

2012年,《马克思恩格斯全集》历史考证版(MEGA工程,柏林,共114卷,123本书)第二部分"《资本论》及其手稿"的第4卷第三册即将出版。这一册将包含马克思1863~1867年手稿《政治经济学批判》(即所谓《资本论》第三版)的最后一部分。对于编辑出版史以及以《资本论》为主体内容的马克思主义宣传工作而言,这都将是一件大事。顾名思义,这篇论文是为"《资本论》及其手稿再研究"课题而作,其主题就是马克思如何一步一步地从关注哲学、政治、国家和法律转向经济学,一步一步地从经济现象进入经济本质,从而走向《资本论》创作。因此,这篇论文实际上是对于《资本论》前史或萌芽时期和马克思、恩格斯思想演变心路历程的理论探讨。     

“Fact or artifact? Empirical evidence on the robustness of compromise effects in binding and non-binding choice contexts”

In this article, the compromise effect (CE) is investigated according to which the choice share of a particular product is expected to increase when it is in an intermediate position in a subset of a product line. In a laboratory-based replication study, we tested CE both in hypothetical non-binding settings most commonly used in previous research on CE as well as in settings where experienced consumers make unforced and binding purchase decisions between real brands of two particular categories. While results prove robustness of the compromise effect even in the binding choice context, its magnitude is significantly reduced, hence indicating a hypothetical bias. Thus, since the CE is evidently less prevalent in the more realistic binding choice setting, compromise effects must be considered overrated to a certain degree in the previous studies on hypothetical decisions.     

美国消费或度过拐点，但黄金增长期已终结

【摩根士丹利4月2日】我们认为,虽然最新的零售额和消费支出数据显示,美国消费暂时云开雾散,但本轮完美风暴尚未结束。目前的好消息在于,最新数据很可能意味着,消费急剧下滑的阶段已经过去。而且,消费还得到了能源价格下跌、所得税退税增加、失业保险福利加强等有利因素的支持。此外,最近的减税和抵押贷款再融资对可支配收入的支撑作用可望持续到2010年。