WORLD CUP 2010: SOUTH AFRICAN ECONOMIC PERSPECTIVES AND POLICY CHALLENGES INFORMED BY THE EXPERIENCE OF GERMANY 2006

The paper provides an ex post analysis of the financial burden and economic benefits of the World Cup (WC) in Germany 2006. Based on the usual cost-benefit measures, the experience of WC 2006 appears to be in line with existing empirical research on large sporting events and sports stadiums, which have rarely identified significant net economic benefits. The lessons from Germany 2006 provide a context for analyzing the potential risks and benefits for South Africa (SA), the WC hosts in 2010. For SA, a careful analysis might be even more urgent to assure the sustainability of investment in stadiums. The paper also argues that the "feel-good" and public image effects of sports events should no longer be neglected in cost-benefit studies of large sporting events, even though these effects have the character of experience goods, and their value are thus likely to be underestimated ex ante. ( JEL L83, R53, R58)     

Growth Enhancement Support Scheme (GESS) and Farmers’ Fertilizer Use in Rural Nigeria

Fertilizer use in Nigeria is estimated at 13 kg/ha, which is far below the 200 kg/ha recommended by the Food and Agricultural Organization (FAO). The objective of this investigation was to identify the determinant factors of farmers’ participation in Nigeria's Growth Enhancement Support Scheme (GESS). In addition, we determined the impact of the GESS on fertilizer use in rural areas. A total of 1,200 rural farmers were sampled across the six geopolitical zones of Nigeria. Results from the use of a recursive bivariate probit model indicated that GESS significantly impacted on the access and usage of fertilizer among the rural farmers; and that contact with extension agents, ownership of mobile phones, power for charging phone batteries, value output, mobile network coverage, ability to read and write were positive determinants of rural farmers’ participation in the GESS; whereas increased distance to registration and collection centers, and cultural constraints to married women reduced farmers’ tendency to participate in the GESS. The findings suggest that farmers’ participation in the GESS is a critical factor for raising fertilizer use in Nigeria. This implies that food security in sub‐Saharan Africa can be achieved by increasing the participation of rural farmers in the GESS.     

A Sticky Information Phillips Curve for South Africa

Mankiw and Reis propose the Sticky Information Phillips Curve (SIPC) as an alternative to the standard New Keynesian Phillips Curve to address empirical shortcomings in the latter. A SIPC for South Africa is estimated, and we find estimates of information updating probability between 0.69 and 0.81, somewhat higher than suggested by methods using micro‐evidence. Because the estimation requires data on expectations of current period inflation and output gap conditional on sequences of earlier period information sets, we provide a detailed analysis of the impact on our estimates of alternative proxies available in South Africa.     

A macro-framework for successful development banks

The large-scale failures of development banks in the 1970s and 1980s meant that they all but disappeared from the development agenda. However, there are still a large number of development banks worldwide that operate with various degrees of success. Some governments are also looking to re-establish such banks to address the shortage of finance for higher-risk market segments. To avoid a repeat of the earlier failures, government policy needs to be informed by an objective framework for the success of these banks. This article, based on economic theory and informed by case studies, outlines such a framework. It addresses the following six dimensions of these banks: enabling environment, mandate, regulation and supervision, governance and management, financial sustainability and performance assessment. Development banking remains a risky initiative but, managed appropriately, and using this framework, it can help achieve development objectives.     

The informal sector in selected residential areas of Port Elizabeth

The Employment Research Unit undertook three surveys on the informal sector during 1985 and 1986, two among Blacks and one among Coloureds. The aim of the surveys was to establish the composition and nature of the sector in the Port Elizabeth/Uitenhage area. It was found that in both these sectors most of the respondents were involved in trading and that very few were involved in manufacturing. Incomes earned by most of the respondents were low. and compared to subsistence level incomes only, It also appeared that the employment creation spin‐off was low. Similar problems inhibited the growth and development of this sector for both Blacks and Coloureds. They were: short‐ and long‐term loans, accommodation, poor infrastructure, and legal restrictions.     

Does CSR contribute to the development of rural young people in cultural tourism of sub-Saharan Africa? Evidence from the Niger Delta in Nigeria

ABSTRACT

We assess the impact of a new corporate social responsibility (CSR) model of multinational oil companies on the development of rural young people (RYP) in cultural tourism in the Niger Delta of Nigeria. Six hundred RYP were sampled across the rural Niger Delta region. Using the logit model, results indicate that RYP have remained widely excluded from the General Memorandum of Understandings (GMoUs) interventions in cultural tourism projects due to the traditional beliefs that cultural affairs are prerogatives of elders, a caveat to the youths. This implies that if the traditions of the communities continue to hinder direct participation of the RYP from the GMoUs cultural tourism project interventions, achieving equality and cultural change would be limited in the region. The findings suggest that since handicrafts are key cultural products consumed in the tourism industry, GMoUs can play a role in helping to create an appropriate intervention structure that will be targeted towards youth empowerment in the area of traditional handicraft. This can be achieved if the Cluster Development Boards would focus on integrating rural young artisans into local tourism value chains, ensuring they benefit economically from the sector, and creating space for the views of RYP indigenous handicrafts knowledge.