How capital markets assess the credibility and accuracy of CSR reporting: Exploring the effects of assurance quality and CSR restatement issuance

This research examines how the credibility and accuracy of corporate social responsibility (CSR) disclosures enhance market confidence by exploring their effect on the cost of capital. How do capital markets react to higher-quality assurance of CSR reporting? Can the hypothetical reduction in the cost of capital that assurance quality produces be explained by restatements of previous information given in these CSR reports? We explore the relationship between assurance quality, as a proxy for credibility and market confidence, and the mediating effect of CSR restatements as indicators of accuracy. We propose regression models with a sample of CSR reports issued by European companies. Building upon the signalling and legitimacy theories, the results support the positive effect of higher assurance quality statements on market confidence by confirming a decrease in the cost of capital; assurance quality gives an indication of credibility to the capital market and restatements related to methodological updates signal accuracy. The reduction in the cost of capital brought on by higher assurance quality appears to be determined by the issuance of CSR restatements, which create legitimacy for both client companies and assurance providers. CSR reporting and assurance have reached a greater level of maturity as demonstrated by the evolution of these practices and financial market perceptions.     

Regression Modeling for the Valuation of Large Variable Annuity Portfolios

Variable annuities are insurance products that contain complex guarantees. To manage the financial risks associated with these guarantees, insurance companies rely heavily on Monte Carlo simulation. However, using Monte Carlo simulation to calculate the fair market values of these guarantees for a large portfolio of variable annuities is extremely time consuming. In this article, we propose the class of GB2 distributions to model the fair market values of guarantees to capture the positive skewness typically observed empirically. Numerical results are used to demonstrate and evaluate the performance of the proposed model in terms of accuracy and speed.     

Evolutions and Contradictions in Mainstream Macroeconomics: The Case of Olivier Blanchard

This article traces the complex intellectual path of Olivier Blanchard, a personification of the controversial evolution of macroeconomic research over the last three decades. After contributing to consolidation of the core of mainstream macroeconomics, Blanchard recently suggested ‘rethinking’ some of its key aspects to take stock of the lessons of the 2008 Great Recession, which he witnessed as the International Monetary Fund’s Chief Economist. This welcome discussion, which according to Blanchard should open mainstream macroeconomics to heterodox thinking, has so far produced a certainly interesting albeit theoretically contradictory synthesis and limited policy consequences. The most paradigmatic aspect of this rethinking of macroeconomics is represented by the abandonment in teaching of aggregate supply and demand in favor of a revival of the IS–LM model complemented by the Phillips curve. While this change of perspective does allow for the instability of ‘natural’ equilibrium to be emphasized, a deeper reading may prove incompatible with the neoclassical foundations of the mainstream approach.     

Are EU trade preferences really effective? An impact evaluation assessment of the Southern Mediterranean Countries’ case

This work assesses the causal impact of the EU trade preferences granted to the Southern Mediterranean Countries (SMCs) in agriculture and fishery products over the period 2004–2014. It overcomes some of the weaknesses of previous assessments and presents several methodological improvements. Firstly, it relies on a continuous treatment – i.e. preferential margins – to capture the ‘average treatment effect’ of trade preferences, rather than on a binary treatment based on dummy variables. Secondly, it uses highly disaggregated data at sectoral level in order to evaluate properly the preferential treatment. Thirdly, it applies a non-parametric matching technique for continuous treatment – specifically, a generalized propensity score matching. The results show, on the one hand, that the impact of the EU preferences is positive and significant on SMCs trade and is better evaluated using impact evaluation techniques. On the other hand, they demonstrate that the relationship between preferences and trade flows is asymmetric and warn against the risk of providing too much of a good thing. These results raise important issues for policy-making. First, they demonstrate that raising the level of preferences is not the solution to foster the SMCs trade towards EU. Second, that the policy-makers should put more emphasis on complementary factors other than trade barriers.     

Stock Returns,Productivity, and Corruption in Eight European Fast-Emerging Markets

This article addresses the impact of productivity, corruption, and trade openness on the stock returns of 265 industrial companies listed in eight Eastern European fast-emerging markets, over the 2004-2013 period. Through a three-factor model that includes both measures at firm level and macro-level control variables, our findings suggest that country corruption index is negatively correlated with the total annual return of the stocks of the listed industrial companies of our sample. Moreover, the most productive firms are featured by higher stock returns, while leverage seems not to be a key predictor of stock returns. In addition, the article uncovers innovative evidence about trade openness that is negatively correlated with stock returns due to its connection with the recent financial crisis. That is, firms operating in markets that are more open to trade show a higher degree of interconnection with other economies and are more likely to undergo the effects of negative fluctuations from foreign markets during the economic crisis. © 2015 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.     

Ownership structure,risk and performance in the European banking industry

We compare the performance and risk of a sample of 181 large banks from 15 European countries over the 1999–2004 period and evaluate the impact of alternative ownership models, together with the degree of ownership concentration, on their profitability, cost efficiency and risk. Three main results emerge. First, after controlling for bank characteristics, country and time effects, mutual banks and government-owned banks exhibit a lower profitability than privately owned banks, in spite of their lower costs. Second, public sector banks have poorer loan quality and higher insolvency risk than other types of banks while mutual banks have better loan quality and lower asset risk than both private and public sector banks. Finally, while ownership concentration does not significantly affect a bank’s profitability, a higher ownership concentration is associated with better loan quality, lower asset risk and lower insolvency risk. These differences, along with differences in asset composition and funding mix, indicate a different financial intermediation model for the different ownership forms.     

Insider employee stock option trading and stock prices

The question of which factors determine corporate bonds pricing is investigated by analysing the spreads of eurobonds issued by major G-10 companies during the 1991–2001 period. Three main results emerge from the analysis. First, bond ratings appear as the most important determinant of yield spreads, with investors’ reliance on rating agencies judgments increasing over time. Second, the primary market efficiency and the expected secondary market liquidity are not relevant explanatory factors of spreads cross-sectional variability. Finally, rating agencies adopt a different, ‘through the cycle’, evaluation criteria of default risk with respect to the forward looking one adopted by bond investors.     

Exploring cruise ship passenger spending patterns in two Uruguayan ports of call

The cruise industry has become a significant component of the Uruguayan tourism economy in the last few years. The present study aims to provide a better understanding of the cruise industry by considering the expenditure of cruise ship passengers disembarking at the ports of call of Montevideo and Punta del Este as a key variable in the economic analysis of the costs and benefits. We estimate two cross-sectional regression models for cruise passenger expenditures, and show that the size of the group the visitors travel with and visitor mobility within the country are the most important variables to explain individual expenditure behaviour. We also include some management recommendations that policy-makers could implement in order to improve the economic profits from cruise ship tourism.     

Exchange rate and interest rate polarization

Exchange Rate and Interest Rate Polarization. - The relationship between the polarization phenomenon in foreign exhange markets and a similar regu-larity in interest rate differentials is considered. In the case of perfect substitutability and of perfect foresight, both polarizations would be perfectly complementary. Risk premia and forecast errors, however, might induce some degree of substitutability between the two concepts. Throughout almost the entire EMS experience, in France and Italy both phenomena appear to be equivalent. At the end of the 80s, however, interest rate polarization has surged at the expense of exchange rate polarization. In fact, a bias in estimates was found to explain this recent behaviour.     

Euro conversion and return dynamics of European financial markets: a frequency domain approach

Using a frequency domain approach, we compare the spectra of equity market index returns for the 12 Euro-zone countries, the UK, the US, and Japan, over several time frames before and after the introduction of the Euro. In the immediate aftermath of the Euro-introduction, we find a reduced volatility over all frequencies, in which no strong cyclical components are present. However, in the long run, equity markets exhibit a volatility increase: the larger European equity markets develop dynamics that exhibit strikingly similar patterns, while the smaller European equity markets appear to follow dynamics closely resembling white noise. The similarity in dynamics is a likely candidate to explain the increase in correlation among the European markets. Furthermore, the European equity markets initially exhibited dynamics that resembled those of the US, while after the introduction of the Euro, the dynamics of the European Markets exhibits patterns similar to those found the UK. This suggests a change in the dynamic interdependency between the UK and the European markets and an increased convergence of UK market behavior with that behavior dominant in the Euro-zone. The findings may provide important implications for investors seeking to take advantage of international diversification.