外盘：世界看中国

铜：中国成为维稳主力如其他商品一样，铜对世界经济的负面消息有短期调整的要求。IMF对世界经济的预测值为-1.3％以及将因此带来的失业率增加，都对铜施加了压力。而两个因素会支持铜价：3月份中国精炼铜的进口量创纪录；铜减产的预期。虽然，中国经济的增速可能无法达到预期，但仍远远强于其他几个世界主要经济体。最近因负面经济消息而停止上涨的铜价将在不久找到支撑，并保持稳定上涨的态势。     

Robust Stability of Monetary Policy Rules under Adaptive Learning

Recent research has explored how minor changes in expectation formation can change the stability properties of a model ( 2007 ; 2009 ). This article builds on this research by examining an economy subject to a variety of monetary policy rules under an endogenous learning algorithm proposed by 2003 . The results indicate that operational versions of optimal discretionary rules are not robustly stable, as in 2009 . In addition, commitment rules are not robust to minor changes in expectational structure and parameter values.     

美元成为最大不确定因素

我们将关注的是： 原油：美国汽油平均价格今年增加了65％。我们的问题是在对世界经济恢复没有负面作用的情况下．原油价格还能走高多久？     

Academic Anti-Semitism and the Austrian School: Vienna, 1918–1945

The theme of academic anti-Semitism has been widely discussed recently in histories of the interwar period of the University of Vienna, in particular its Faculty of Law and Policy Sciences. This paper complements these studies by focusing on the economics chairs of this faculty and, more generally, on the fate of the younger generation of the Austrian School of Economics. After some introductory remarks the paper concentrates on three case studies: the neglect of Mises in all three appointments of economics chairs in the 1920s; the anti-Semitic overtones in the conflict between Hans Mayer and Othmar Spann, both professors of economics in the faculty; and on anti-Semitism as a determinant of success or failure in academia, and consequently of the emigration of Austrian economists. Finally, we have a short look at the development of economics at the University of Vienna during and after the Nazi regime.     

Trust,Commitment, and Older Women: Exploring Brand Attachment Differences in the Elderly Segment

Understanding older adults’ product consumption behavior is of high importance to consumer and marketing research. Prior studies have mainly focused on older adults’ cognitive decline and compared their behavior to that of younger consumers. A neglected area of research has been older consumers’ brand attachment that is associated with potential differences between consumers in their fifties and in their seventies. In this article, the authors provide insights into the under‐researched field of elderly women's brand attachment. Drawing on socioemotional selectivity theory, a shift toward emotional aspects in brand relationships is proposed. A model involving trust and commitment processes is developed and empirically tested in a survey among 341 older women. Moderator analyses reveal significant differences between the “younger elderly” and the “older elderly” in relationships among self‐concept connection, partner quality, trust, and commitment. For the younger elderly, how a brand is (based on trust judgments) seems to be more important. For the older elderly, what a brand does in its role as relationship partner becomes more relevant.     

对冲基金之“罪”

对冲基金基本上不受监管、无须注册、持仓无限制，但是据估计在2008年的高峰，对冲基金管理的资金却达到了2．5万亿美元     

Properties of a Risk Measure Derived from Ruin Theory

This paper studies a risk measure inherited from ruin theory and investigates some of its properties. Specifically, we consider a value-at-risk (VaR)-type risk measure defined as the smallest initial capital needed to ensure that the ultimate ruin probability is less than a given level. This VaR-type risk measure turns out to be equivalent to the VaR of the maximal deficit of the ruin process in infinite time. A related Tail-VaR-type risk measure is also discussed.     

Public justification and democratic adjudication

Contractualists seek to publicly justify moral principles, but it seems doubtful that a set of specific principles or policies can be definitively justified. In this sense, the contractualist project has an indeterminate result: the precise content of liberal morality is open to reasonable dispute. Liberal citizens thus find themselves disagreeing about the demands of liberal morality. They require, as Locke argued, an umpire to resolve their disputes. This paper analyzes what is required of such an umpire, and then employs a four-stage argument to show that constitutional representative democracy is the uniquely justified umpiring procedure for resolving these disputes. Democratic politics, on this view, is the continuation of ethical dispute by other means. I would like to thank Fred D'Agostino, William Nelson and Jonathan Riley for their very helpful written comments. I also greatly benefitted from discussions with Julian Lamont, Loren Lomasky, Philip Pettit, Jeremy Shearmur and Stuart Warner and from Daniel Shapiro's response to an earlier version of this paper. My thanks too to the journal's readers.     

如果大宗商品市场少了对冲基金

我们来回顾一下大宗商品市场的近期历史。2007年末到2008年初，对冲基金闯入大宗商品交易，将数千亿美元投入市场。他们是以买入持有，不是以投机或对冲的操作方式来进入市场。准备好了80％～100％的保证金，它们的根基稳固，不会被小幅波动赶出市场。这对市场造成了非常可观的影响，谷物、能源、金属等的价格被推到历史新高。在经历一场似乎脱离市场供需关系的价格波动后，对冲基金最终还是受经济衰退影响而被迫抛出了手中的大宗商品。