Insuring against the shortfall risk associated with real options

We would like to insure against the risk that a geometric Brownian motion, correlated with the price process of a certain traded asset, is in a set E at time T. In this paper it is shown that the best action one can take to insure against this risk is to buy a binary option on the traded asset. We give explicit formulas in the case that E is an infinite interval. The setting of all our investigations is the Black-Scholes model. Mathematics Subject Classification (2000): 91B28, 60J65, 62P05, 91B30, 62F03 Journal of Economic Literature Classification: G31     

Bestimmung kostenoptimaler Parameter für den kontinuierlichen Stichprobenplan vonDodge

Summary Dodge's sampling plan for a continuous production process is determined by two constantsi andk. Under some assumptions about the statistical properties of the production process the average loss due to the costs for inspection and for replacing defective units by good ones is described by a loss function. It is shown that there are always constantsi andk which minimize the loss function in a special sense. Tables of these optimum parameters are computed.     

Pension Reform, Capital Markets and the Rate of Return

Abstract. This paper discusses the consequences of population aging and a fundamental pension reform – that is, a shift towards more pre‐funding – for capital markets in Germany. We use a stylized closed‐economy, overlapping‐generations model to compare the effects of the recent German pension reform with those of a more decisive reform that would freeze the current pay‐as‐you‐go contribution rate and thus result in a larger funded component of the pension system. We predict rates of return to capital under both reform scenarios over a long horizon, taking demographic projections as given. Our main finding is that the future decrease in the rate of return is much smaller than often claimed in the public debate. Our simulations show that the capital stock will decrease once the baby‐boom generations enter retirement, even if there were no fundamental pension reform. The corresponding decrease in the rate of return, the direct effect of population aging, is around 0.7 percentage points. While the capital market effects of the recent German pension reform are marginal, the rate of return to capital would decrease by an additional 0.5 percentage points under the more decisive reform proposal.     

EEC action in regard to consumer safety,particularly in the food sector

The paper discusses trends and actions of the European Economic Community (EEC) in the field of consumer safety. EEC law has no fast principle of consumer safety nor special agencies responsible for it. EEC actions are restricted to specific measures, especially in the area of foodstuffs (additives, colouring agents etc.). EEC law suffers a number of deficiencies. There is — with the exception of pharmaceutical products — no regulation on EEC-wide market withdrawals. Member state safety decisions may be in conflict and put strain on the EEC principle of free movement of goods. Certain directives contain only minimum standards and therefore do not make for common safety regulations in the EEC. There are gaps in the information exchange systems among the EEC and member states even though an EEC decision of 1984 improved the situation. The author goes on to make some suggestions for future action.

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Gemeinschaftsaktionen zugunsten der Sicherheit des Verbrauchers unter besonderer Berücksichtigung des Lebensmittelrechts

Zusammenfassung Die Europäischen Gemeinschaften (EG) haben nur begrenzte Kompetenzen im Bereich der Verbrauchersicherheit. Deshalb ist dem EG-Recht ein allgemeines Prinzip unbekannt, das die Sicherheitsinteressen des Verbrauchers produktunabhängig schützt. Vielmehr geht die EG problembezogen vor; das Einstimmigkeitsprinzip und die fehlende Öffentlichkeit erzwingen eine Beschränkung auf sehr konkrete und sehr spezifische Maßnahmen. Umfängliche Regelungen gibt es vor allem im Bereich von Lebensmitteln, insbes. hinsichtlich von Zusatzstoffen.Das EG-Recht weist eine Reihe von Lücken auf. Es fehlt — bis auf die Ausnahme der Arzneimittel — eine Regelung über den Rückruf von Produkten. Konflikte zwischen dem freien Warenverkehr und mitgliedstaatlichen Schutzinteressen aus Gründen tatsächlicher oder vermeintlicher Verbrauchersicherheit sind an der Tagesordnung. Der Informationsaustausch über Produktrisiken ist unzureichend; eine entsprechende Gemeinschaftsinitative erfaßt nicht freiwillige Maßnahmen.Der Beitrag erörtert schließlich die Möglichkeiten für künftige Gemeinschaftsaktionen.The paper is a slightly changed and updated version of a paper given at a seminar in Paris on 8 November 1983, organized by the Association Française pour le Droit de l'Alimentation and dealing with safety and food.

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Ludwig Krämer works at the EC Commission, Directorate General XI (Environment, Consumer Protection, and Nuclear Safety), 10 rue Guimard, B-1049 Brussels, Belgium. The views expressed in this paper are purely personal.     

Corporate Governance and Expected Stock Returns: Evidence from Germany

Recent empirical work shows evidence for higher valuation of firms in countries with a better legal environment. We investigate whether differences in the quality of firm‐level corporate governance also help to explain firm performance in a cross‐section of companies within a single jurisdiction. Constructing a broad corporate governance rating (CGR) for German public firms, we document a positive relationship between governance practices and firm valuation. There is also evidence that expected stock returns are negatively correlated with firm‐level corporate governance, if dividend yields are used as proxies for the cost of capital. An investment strategy that bought high‐CGR firms and shorted low‐CGR firms earned abnormal returns of around 12% on an annual basis during the sample period.     

Daniel Süss

Ohne Zusammenfassung