How Does Probability of Innovation Change with Firm Age?

This paper looks at the probability of introducing innovations by manufacturing firms at different stages of their lives. Once differences related to activity and size are controlled for, we examine how the probability of innovation varies over entry, post-entry ages, and advanced ages of mature firms. We also measure the association between exit from the market and pre-exit innovation. Results show that the probability of innovating widely varies by activity, and that small size per se broadly reduces the probability of innovation, but also that entrant firms tend to present the highest probability of innovation while the oldest firms tend to show lower innovative probabilities. Some sets of firms with intermediate ages also present a high probability of innovation, and exiting firms are clearly associated to lower levels of introducing process innovations.     

Prognose des Abwicklungsergebnisses mittels Chain-Ladder-Verfahren für abhängige Run-Off-Portfolios

In the present paper we analyse how the estimators from Merz u. Wüthrich (2007) could be generalised to the case of N correlated run-off triangles. The simultaneous view on N correlated subportfolios is motivated by the fact, that in practice a run-off portfolio often has to be divided in subportfolios, so that the homogeneity assumption of the claims reserving method on each subportfolio is satisfied. We derive an explicit formula for the process-variance, the estimation-error and the prediction error made by the forecast for the claims development result with the Chain-Ladder method. We illustrate the results by an example.     

The Application for and the Awarding of Low-Interest Credits to Finance R&;D Projects

The objective of this paper is twofold: first, to analyze the determinants of firms’ applications for low-interest credits to finance their research and development projects; and second, to study the award decision by the public agency. The results obtained for a sample of Spanish firms suggest that young firms, exporters, companies that belong to a high or medium-tech industry, and especially firms with previous experience in similar programs have a higher probability of applying for a credit. As for the award process, the most important effects are related to the technological and economic potential of the proposal, providing evidence that the agency tries to select the best projects.     

Bootstrapping the chain-ladder method for several correlated run-off portfolios

The prediction of the outstanding loss liabilities for a non-life run-off portfolio as well as the quantification of the prediction error is one of the most important actuarial tasks in non-life insurance. In this paper we consider this prediction problem in a multivariate context. More precisely, we derive the predictive distribution of the claims reserves simultaneously for several correlated run-off portfolios in the framework of the Chain-ladder claims reserving method for several correlated run-off portfolios.     

Innovation and Productivity Across Four European Countries

This paper compares the role innovation plays in productivityacross four European countries, France, Germany, Spain, andthe UK, using firm-level data from the internationally harmonizedCommunity Innovation Surveys (CIS3). Despite a considerablenumber of national firm-level studies analysing this relationship,cross-country comparisons using micro data are still rare. Weapply a structural model that describes the link between R&Dexpenditure, innovation output, and productivity (CDM model).Our econometric results suggest that overall the systems drivinginnovation and productivity are remarkably similar across thesefour countries, although we also find interesting differences,particularly in the variation in productivity that is associatedwith more or less innovative activities. Footnotes ¹ E-mail addresses: rgriffith{at}ifs.org.uk; ehuergo{at}ccee.ucm.es;jacques.mairesse{at}ensae.fr; b.peters{at}zew.de     

The Effect of R&D Services Offshoring on Skilled Employment: Firm Evidence

The offshoring of high‐tech services has greatly increased in recent years, with consequences for firms demand for skilled employment in firms. This paper specifically analyses the relationship between R&D offshoring and the demand for R&D employment using firm‐level data for Spanish manufacturing and services companies during the period 2004–11. Estimating different specifications with panel data techniques, we find that this association is statistically positive. In particular, for services firms a 1 percentage point increase in R&D offshoring raises the demand for researchers by about 11 per cent.     

Determinants of International R&D Outsourcing: The Role of Trade

This paper investigates the determinants of international R&D outsourcing, in particular the role of trade. We sketch a monopolistic competition model with heterogeneous firms where outsourcing increases a firm's fixed transaction costs as well as its productivity. Financial constraints affect the decision to outsource R&D more to nonexporters than to exporters. In contrast, exporters are more sensitive to a lack of information because they have higher losses when there is technology leakage. We test these predictions using a panel database of Spanish companies. The results highlight the relevance of information in competitive markets, and the role of trade to induce companies to engage in other globalization strategies.     

Profit Margins,Adjustment Costs and the Business Cycle: An Application to Spanish Manufacturing Firms*

The objective of this paper is to investigate the cyclical behaviour of mark‐ups, using a panel of Spanish manufacturing firms over the period 1990–1998. Margins are estimated from the optimal conditions derived from the firm's optimisation problem, which assumes that labour inputs are subject to adjustment costs. A number of results emerge from the estimations. First, we find positive and asymmetric adjustment costs for permanent labour inputs. Second, price‐cost margins are markedly procyclical. Our estimates suggest that labour adjustment costs more than double the variability of average margins with respect to Lerner indexes. Third, we find differences in the parameters of the adjustment technology across industries which make markups of intermediate and production good industries more cyclical than consumer good industries. Finally, industry‐specific price‐cost margins are higher in more concentrated industries.