Job growth in early transition: Comparing two paths*

Small start‐up firms are the engine of job creation in early transition. We ask about differences in their growth across two different transition economies: Estonia, which experienced rapid destruction of pre‐existing firms, and the Czech Republic, which reduced the old sector gradually. We find that the majority of job growth corresponds to within‐industry reallocation. The within‐industry growth of small start‐up firms is similar in the two countries, in line with the convergence to Western industry firm‐size distributions. We also find similar patterns in the evolution of wage differentials between start‐ups and old firms and small differences in the extent of low‐wage employment in start‐ups across the two transition paths. JEL Classifications: J2, J3, J4, L1, O1, P2.     

Not just understudies: The dynamics of short-term leadership

Contrary to the stereotype that the period between CEOs is a hiatus, interim and acting executives serve during an important strategic window. A model is presented to illustrate the dynamics of short-term leadership, including the precipitating circumstances for the temporary administration, the tasks of short-term leadership, and the moderating factors seen to affect the selection and success of the next chief executive. Researchers and practitioners are urged to consider more carefully the potential that a well-managed interregnum has to repair damage from a traumatic departure, buffer between administrations, and prepare the organization to accept and work with new leadership. © 1995 by John Wiley & Sons, Inc.     

Developing a tutoring module for presentation of computerized patient management problems

The simulation problem is one of the most commonly used formats in computer-assisted instruction (CAI). In medical education, a patient simulation problem is known as a patient management problem (PMP). A number of computerized PMP systems are currently available. However, to date, there is no record of PMP systems having been developed using artificial intelligence. This is noteworthy since artificial intelligence techniques could help in the generation of more effective and intelligent instructional systems.

This paper analyzes and evaluates existing instructional simulation software in clinical medicine in terms of effective educational design attributes. Components of effective PMP systems thus identified are incorporated into a computerized instructional system which uses artificial intelligence techniques for teaching problem-solving and diagnostic skills to undergraduate medical students.     

DISTRIBUTION OF WEALTH IN THE UNITED KINGDOM: EFFECT OF INCLUDING PENSION RIGHTS,AND ANALYSIS BY AGE-GROUP*

This article on the distribution of wealth among individuals in the United Kingdom presents recent work on the effects of including pension rights and the significance of sex, age and marital status. It describes the rationale for including the accrued rights in occupational and State pension schemes (funded or unfunded) and the methods of estimation used. For funded schemes the rights are valued as the accrued liability of the schemes to their members, and for unfunded schemes similar liabilities are hypothecated; these estimates of the value of accrued pension rights involve assumptions about future earnings and interest rates. The trend in average marketable wealth with age is upwards until advanced years when it slows down or slightly reverses. Adding occupational pension rights only slightly raises the trend for females but has a bigger effect for males. Adding State pension rights raises these upward trends until the age of 60 after which there is a decline. For marketable wealth on the average males are wealthier than females but less wealthy if single, divorced or widowed. Adding occupational pension rights improves the relative position of males; adding State pension rights cancels this out. The effect of marital status rises with both age and sex and therefore a detailed three-way analysis is made. For females widows are on average the wealthiest; for young males the married; for older males the single. Using Theil's coefficient of entropy for comparing the inequality of wealth, the addition of pension rights reduces inequality by two-thirds. Age accounts for only 6 percent of inequality for marketable wealth but for 31 percent if pension rights are included.     

Disclosure of Private Information and Reduction of Uncertainty: Environmental Liabilities in the Chemical Industry

We investigate the potential uncertainty-reducing role of accounting information in the context of contingent Superfund liability valuation. We first develop theoretical arguments for the way reduction of uncertainty regarding these contingent liabilities is expected to affect security prices. Empirical proxies are developed for two types of uncertainty surrounding contingent Superfund liabilities: site uncertainty and allocation uncertainty. In a valuation framework, we then investigate whether financial statement disclosures and accruals reduce uncertainty and thereby affect security valuation. Specifically, we analyze the interaction of private information contained in firm disclosures and accruals with inherent uncertainty surrounding contingent Superfund liabilities. Results suggest that in a regulatory environment allowing substantial reporting discretion, firm-provided financial statement information affects valuation of contingent Superfund liabilities by reducing uncertainty. Further, we find that information revealed through accruals versus disclosures is differentially effective at reducing site and allocation uncertainty.     

Bank Consolidation and Small Business Lending: The Role of Community Banks

This paper examines how bank consolidation activity affected small business lending in local U.S. banking markets during two 3-year study periods, focussing on the role played by community banks in the process. During the 1994–1997 period, we find that consolidation activity involving big banks is associated with lower loan growth, whereas community bank consolidations and a greater presence of community banks in the market are associated with higher loan growth. During the 1997–2000 period, consolidation activity is either unrelated to small business loan growth or is associated with higher loan growth. In both study periods we find that, net of organization reclassifications due to consolidation or asset growth, the share of small business lending funded by community banks rose, particularly in markets undergoing consolidation.     

Out‐of‐sample stock return predictability in emerging markets

This article builds on the widely debated issue of stock return predictability by applying a broad range of predictor variables and comprehensively considering the in‐sample and out‐of‐sample stock return predictability of ten advanced emerging markets. It compares forecasts from models with a single predictor variable, multiple predictor variables and a combination forecast approach. The results confirm the findings of Welch and Goyal (2008) for US data that only a limited number of individual predictor variables are able to deliver significant out‐of‐sample forecasts. However, a combination forecast approach provides statistically and economically significant out‐of‐sample forecast results.