The interest rate–inflation relationship under an inflation targeting regime: The case of Turkey

This paper examines the relationship between nominal interest rates and the expected inflation rate for the Turkish economy between 2002 and 2009, a period when the inflation-targeting regime was implemented as monetary policy. We use the test of cointegrating rank with a trend-break (a method introduced by Inoue, 1999) and we also apply exogeneity tests. Empirical findings indicate that monetary policy rates depend on inflationary expectations; long-term interest rates are affected by monetary policy; and the weak form of the Fisher effect is valid. This evidence implies that monetary policy has actually influenced the real long-term interest rates; the inflation targeting regime pursued by the Central Bank of Turkey is reliable; and hence realized inflation has remained close to its targeted level.     

提高客户满意度是否会增加企业盈利

大多数研究者和企业管理人员都认为客户满意度和企业期望的经营结果成正相关。研究发现,客户满意对购买意愿具有可测量的影响,而且对于客户保持和企业的经营业绩也有同样的影响。同时,有关研究也认为,客户满意度与花费份额(SOW)、公司的营业收入也有正相关的关系。在一些不同行     

Exchange Rate Pass-Through in Vertically Related Markets

The paper provides a theoretical framework which addresses exchange rate pass-through within the setting of vertically related markets. In particular, foreign firms' price adjustment in response to an exchange rate shock is evaluated. This permits study of the importance of cost effects of the exchange rate shock. Recent empirical evidence indicated the relevance of these cost effects. It is shown that one can decompose the effects of an exchange rate shock on the final goods market into direct and indirect components. The indirect effect works through the input market. The degree of pass-through then depends on the relative importance of direct and indirect effects, which in turn depends on the nature of vertical structures and strategic firm behavior. It is shown that the institutional aspects of vertically related markets play a role in explaining incomplete price adjustments in both intermediate and final goods markets and the failure of PPP in the short run.     

Food price increases and net food importing countries: lessons from the recent past

Recent increases in food and other commodity prices have highlighted concerns that many poor countries are net food importers and higher food prices would worsen their trade balances. In this article, we analyze the changes in food trade balances associated with the 32% increase in food prices from 2000/2001 to 2004/2005. We find a small deterioration in food trade balances of low‐income countries and an improvement in middle‐income countries. The deterioration is most severe for countries in conflict and small island states, so attention should be placed first on these countries and on a few very‐low‐income countries that are also vulnerable. Because low‐income countries as a group had much lower agricultural GDP growth rates than middle‐income countries, the answers to food vulnerability in low‐income countries should probably be addressed within the context of incentives for agricultural production.     

Revisiting FDI-led growth hypothesis: the role of sector characteristics

Does foreign direct investment (FDI) lead to higher growth? What type of FDI really works? In this paper, we disaggregate FDIs based on their technological characteristics and investigate which kind of FDI leads to output growth. The results for the sample of OECD countries during the period 1985–2012 indicate that FDI inflows to Information and Communication Technologies (ICTs) using and producing manufacturing and service sectors (ICT-based), non-ICT using and producing manufacturing and service sectors (non-ICT-based) and other sectors (non-ICT-other) play no role in contributing to economic growth. However, we provide evidence that absorptive capacities of host countries work through ICT-based FDI inflows. Only if the host countries have sufficient level of human capital, financial resources and technological infrastructure, ICT-based FDI will foster economic growth. The results are robust to controlling missing values, studying the subsample of emerging market economies and consideration of endogeneity.     

An empirical investigation of US fiscal expenditures and macroeconomic outcomes

In addition to containing stable information to explain inflation, state-local expenditures also have a larger share of the forecast error variance of US inflation than the federal funds rate. Non-defense federal expenditures are useful in predicting real output variations and, starting from the early 1980s, also present a larger share of the forecast error variance of US real output than the federal funds rate.     

An application of data envelopment analysis to the evaluation of audit risk: a reinterpretation

This paper, which reinterprets previous work by Bradbury and Rouse (2002 ), addresses the risk quantification issue at an intuitive level. The insights provided by such quantification are discussed. Risk factors are associated with the risk-return concept. This allows measuring whether risks taken on are appropriately rewarded. The paper gives a non-technical exposition of DEA and outlines possible applications to accounting and finance. Using data for a large multinational, it shows how DEA analysis can be combined with internal audit procedures. It explains how the results obtained can be used to improve risk management.     

Are real exchanges rate series really persistent?: evidence from three commonwealth of independent states countries

This article sets out to examine the degree of persistence in the real exchange rates of Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan and Russia, and tests the validity of Purchasing power parity (PPP) using monthly data covering 1995:01–2013:12 period. The sum of autoregressive (AR) coefficients is used in order to examine persistence of the real exchange rate series and grid-bootstrap method is employed for the confidence intervals. The tests performed suggest two results: (1) Covering the full sample and sub-sample periods, excluding Kyrgyzstan in 1995:01–1998:07 and Russia in 2008:09–2013:12 periods, disregarding the structural breaks in the data generating process, there is high persistency in real exchange rates; (2) there is evidence in support of PPP covering the full sample for every country except for Kyrgyzstan in 1995:01–1998:07 and Russia in 2008:09–2013:12 periods.     

Globalization and the welfare state

This paper analyzes the impact of globalization on the Welfare State (WS). Some argue that globalization poses a serious threat to WS and therefore questions its sustainability. On the other hand, some others suggest that WS has to expand more as economies are integrating. After reviewing different hypothesis on the relationship between globalization and WS, we empirically examine the relationship by using 32 countries covering 1980 through 2010. According to the estimation results, there is no direct linkage between globalization and the WS. However the reaction of the WS against globalization is found to vary dramatically depending on welfare regimes. We find evidence in favor of compensation hypothesis in Social Democrat, Conservative and Mediterranean Welfare State regimes, whereas efficiency effect is in place in liberal Welfare States.     

UNION WAGE COMPRESSION AND SKILL ACQUISITION

In this paper, I examine the relationship between unionisation and total output in an economy with a dual labour market, heterogeneous agents, and human capital investment. My primary focus is the skill acquisition channel, through which unionization affects total output. I theoretically demonstrate that the skill premium, and thus human capital investment, is determined by the prevalence of unions in high‐ or low‐skill‐intensive sectors. In particular, if a low (high)‐skill sector is unionised, then the skill premium is higher (lower), ensuring a larger (smaller) high‐skill sector, irrespective of the unions bargaining power. To test this hypothesis, I also empirically investigate the effects of unionisation on total productivity. The results indicate that through the reallocation of labour, unionisation induces an expansion of high‐skill‐intensive sectors, while low‐skill‐intensive sectors contract.