Semiparametric diffusion estimation and application to a stock market index

The analysis of diffusion processes in financial models is crucially dependent on the form of the drift and diffusion coefficient functions. A new model for a stock market index process is proposed in which the index is decomposed into an average growth process and an ergodic diffusion. The ergodic diffusion part of the model is not directly observable. A methodology is developed for estimating and testing the coefficient functions of this unobserved diffusion process. The estimation is based on the observations of the index process and uses semiparametric and non-parametric techniques. The testing is performed via the wild bootstrap resampling technique. The method is illustrated on S&P 500 index data.     

Ist das österreichische Rentensystem nachhaltig?

Wirtschaftsdienst - In der deutschen Debatte zur Rentenpolitik wird in letzter Zeit immer wieder auf das Beispiel Österreich verwiesen. Das hohe österreichische Leistungsniveau provoziert...     

Employment cycles, low income work and the dynamic impact of wage regulations. A macro perspective

In this paper we investigate, against the background of Goodwin??s (1967) growth cycle model, a dual labor market economy and the consequences of introducing an unemployment benefit system and minimum wages in the second labor market and a maximum wage barrier in the first one. In the framework with free ??hiring?? and firing?? in the both labor markets we show (a) that in fact maximum real wages in the first labor market not only reduce the volatility of this labor market, but also provide global stability to the system dynamics if they are locally explosive, and (b) that larger fluctuations in employment can be made (at least partially) socially acceptable through a (workfare oriented) unemployment benefit system augmented by minimum wage in the low income segment of the labor market.     

HYSTERESIS AND THE NAIRU IN THE EURO AREA

This paper analyses the Nairu in the Euro Area and the influence that hysteresis had on its development. Using the Kalman‐filter technique we find that the Nairu has varied considerably since the early 1970s. The Kalman‐filter technique is applied here using explicit exogenous variables. In order to test for hysteresis, the dependence of the Nairu on actual unemployment and long‐term unemployment is estimated and found to be significant for the Euro Area and Germany, respectively. The existence of hysteresis effects implies the possibility of a long‐run non‐superneutrality of monetary policy.     

Testing the effectiveness of the French work-sharing reform: a forecasting approach

The macroeconomic impact of the French work-sharing reform of 2000 (a reduction of standard working hours in combination with wage subsidies) is analysed. Using a vector error correction model (VECM) for several labour market variables, as well as inflation and output, out-of-sample forecasts for 2000/2001 are produced. A comparison of these forecasts – which serve as a benchmark simulation without structural shifts – to the realized values (with shifts) suggests significant beneficial employment effects of the policy mix. Other shifts were absent and thus cannot explain the outcome. Output, productivity, hourly labour costs, and inflation are only transitorily affected or not at all.     

Österreichs Alterssicherung: Vorbild für Deutschland?

As a result of political reforms, pension provision in Germany is the task of a multi pillar model including private and occupational schemes in addition to the public pension insurance. By contrast, the Austrian single pillar model has been developed into an encompassing public insurance system now also covering the self employed and civil servants. A comparison of the two countries shows that the Austrian system provides much higher benefits. Economic developments in Germany and Austria have been rather close in recent years. This, we argue, shows that a strong public pension insurance does not hamper a country’s economic performance.     

Ageing in Europe

For many people all over Europe, there is an understanding and an expectation that in old age they will be taken care of by the state. High social security contributions throughout the three or four decades of a working life are rationalised by the prospect of a straightforward transition out of the labour force when the time comes. While this was a reasonable expectation in decades past, a number of factors have combined to cause people all across the continent to feel very anxious about what awaits them once it is time to exit the labour force into retirement. The well-documented demographic transition of many rich European countries is a big factor, as greying populations start to weigh on the sparser younger generations, leading to increasing dependency ratios that would cause any social security system to buckle. The Great Recession has not helped matters, and the austerity measures still crippling many vulnerable European nations will not make anyone in these countries feel optimistic about their post-working lives. The following papers look at different threads of the new reality of ageing in Europe, from pension reform and prolonging the working life to more qualitative aspects such as an analysis of the quality of life of the elderly across Europe. They serve to inform and advise on an important issue that will affect everyone in Europe at some point in their lives.     

Why is Austria’s Pension System So Much Better Than Germany’s?

The pension systems in both Germany and Austria have undergone substantial reforms, though only one of the countries appears to have had success. Average earners in Austria will receive gross pensions equivalent to 78.1% of their average earnings, whereas in Germany they will receive just 37.5%. The authors argue that Germany has been left with a system that has abandoned the goal of protecting people's standard of living.