Predicting the Monthly and Annual Current Account Balance from Provisional Data*

This paper uses provisional monthly data to predict the one-month-ahead and one-year-ahead current account balance. Single-equation methods are compared to an eight-equation VAR model that utilizes the Box-Tiao (1977) modifications. It is found that the single-equation model of the current account out-performs the system method for the short- term but the positions are reversed for the annual forecast     

A REVIEW OF STRESSORS IN THE HOME

Stress can be defined as a dependent variable, an independent variable or as an interactive variable. The most workable definition is the latter, ‘the transactional model’. This describes stress as a ‘lack of fit’ between an organism and the environment in which an imbalance occurs at a cognitive level between perceived demand and perceived capability producing an unpleasant, emotional experience and a stress response. Stressors in the domestic environment may be noxious stimuli, social stressors, phenomenological stressors, or developmental stressors; all of which are discussed. In conclusion, the studies reviewed are suggested as failing to consider the large number of variables involved and in addition more work on the relationship between work stress and home life should be undertaken.     

HOT WATER CONSUMPTION IN THE HOME

A survey of 376 households was undertaken to determine how hot water was used in the domestic environment within the time brackets 7:00–12:00, 12:01–16:00 and 16:01–24:00. The results show that most hot water is used during the evening. This is mainly because bathing and washing up are more frequent per person at this time. Washing machine use was consistently more frequent during lunchtime. The results are laid out so that designers can use the data for prediction of water consumption.     

Dispersed alarm systems – a review

The increase in the number of retired, elderly and very old in society has begun to pose the problem of how to provide access to care services for those in households which are not purpose built, specially adapted and serviced accommodation. Liberalization of telecommunications in the U.K. allied to technical advances have allowed ‘dispersed alarm systems’ to be developed and thus provide a means of communication between isolated elderly people in distress and a central emergency service. The selection of an appropriate system and its management are discussed in this paper.     

PURPOSE-BUILT RETIREMENT HOUSING FOR SALE

Sheltered housing for the elderly has traditionally been provided by local authorities and charitable organizations but it seems that they can no longer meet the housing needs of this group. In the last few decades, there has been a significant rise in home-ownership amongst retired people. Two features of this are important. First, those retired people who have been used to owning their own homes may be unwilling to consider somewhat institutional types of housing. Second, as a group, although eligible for specialist retirement housing provided by local authorities and charitable agencies, elderly owner-occupiers find it nearly impossible to qualify for such accommodation as they are not considered to be in need. Recently there has been a move by the private sector to provide purpose-built accommodation for sale to the elderly. How far the needs of the elderly can be met by this type of housing was investigated in two related studies. The first involved interviewing a sample of residents living in sheltered accommodation, while the second study surveyed respondents of retirement age at present living in ordinary housing. The investigation has shown that a considerable demand exists for purpose-built housing for sale to the elderly.