The Dark Matter of Innovation: Design and Innovative Performance in Dutch Manufacturing

This paper focuses on the impact of expenditures on design on the innovative performance of Dutch manufacturing firms. The competitive advantage of a firm often depends on its ability to innovate. Past research has shown that investments in research and development (R&D) can play a key role in stimulating innovation, yet relatively few studies have examined the impact of expenditures on design on innovative performance. Using a database containing 2010 firms from the Netherlands, this paper explores the association between expenditures on design and product innovation, highlighting the importance of the new range of 'downstream' innovation activities for understanding innovation performance.     

Complexity and financial stability in a large random economy

I study the limit of a large random economy, in the ideal case of perfect competition, where full information is available to all market participants, and where a set of consumers invests in financial instruments engineered by banks in order to optimize their future consumption. This provides a picture of how unregulated financial innovation pushes an economy towards the ideal limit of complete markets. Hedging new products with existing products allows financial institutions to reduce the associated risk and hence the risk premium. This has the expected consequence that markets, under such ideal conditions, converge to market completeness as the repertoire of financial instruments expands. As markets approach completeness, however, two ‘unintended consequences’ also arise: (i) equilibrium portfolios develop a marked susceptibility to idiosyncratic shocks and/or parameter uncertainty and (ii) hedging engenders divergent trading volumes in the interbank market. Combining these suggests an inverse relation between financial stability and the size of the financial sector, which can be quantified within the present framework. These results suggest that even under perfect competition and symmetric information, the pursuit of market efficiency—in terms of completeness—may erode financial stability. The proliferation of financial instruments exacerbates the effects of market imperfections and, in order to prevent an escalation of perverse effects, markets may require institutional structures that become more and more substantial as their complexity expands.     

The Dark Matter of Innovation: Design and Innovative Performance in Dutch Manufacturing1

This paper focuses on the impact of expenditures on design on the innovative performance of Dutch manufacturing firms. The competitive advantage of a firm often depends on its ability to innovate. Past research has shown that investments in research and development (R&D) can play a key role in stimulating innovation, yet relatively few studies have examined the impact of expenditures on design on innovative performance. Using a database containing 2010 firms from the Netherlands, this paper explores the association between expenditures on design and product innovation, highlighting the importance of the new range of ‘downstream’ innovation activities for understanding innovation performance.     

The effects of mergers and acquisitions on the firm size distribution

This paper provides new empirical evidence on the effects of mergers and acquisitions (M&As) on the shape of the firm size distribution, by using data of the population of manufacturing firms in the Netherlands. Our analysis shows that M&As do not affect the size distribution when we consider the entire population of firms. When we focus on the firms involved in an M&A event, we observe a shift of the firm size distribution towards larger sizes. Firm size distribution becomes more concentrated around the mean, less skewed to the right hand side, and thinner at the tails as a whole. The shift toward higher sizes due to M&A is not uniform but affects firms of different sizes in different ways. While the number of firms in the lower tail decreased, the number of firms in the central size classes increased substantially and outweighed the increase in the number (and mean size) of firms in the upper tail of the distribution (consequently the overall market concentration measured by the Herfindahl index declines). M&As lead to a departure from log-normality of the firm size distribution, suggesting that external growth does not follow Gibrat’s law. Our counterfactual analysis highlights that only internal growth does not affect the shape of the size distribution of firms. On the contrary, it suggests that the change in the size distribution is almost entirely due to the external growth of the firms.

Learning,market selection and the evolution of industrial structures

Industrial economics is a rich source of puzzles for economic theory. One of them — certainly the most discussed — regards the co-existence of firms (and plants) of different sizes, displaying rather invariant skewed distributions. Other puzzles, however, concern the sectoral specificities in industrial structures, the persistence of asymmetric corporate performances and the dynamics of entry and exit. The paper reports some preliminary results on evolutionary modeling of the links between the microeconomics of innovation, the patterns of industrial change and some observable invariances in industrial structures.First, the paper reviews a few of these empirical regularities in structures and in the patterns of change. Second, the paper discusses the achievements and limits of interpretations of the evidence based on equilibrium theories. Finally, it presents a model where these regularities are explained as emergent properties deriving from non equilibrium interactions among technologically heterogeneous firms. Moreover, simulation exercises show that also the intersectoral variety in the observed industrial structures and dynamics can be interpreted on the grounds of underlying specificities in the processes of technological learning — which is called technological regimes — and of the processes of market interactions — i.e. market regimes.This research has undertaken within an on going project sponsored by the Italian Research Council (CNR, Progetto strategico,Cambiamento tecnologico e sviluppo economico). Support by the Consortium on Competitiveness and Cooperation Centre for Research in Management, University of California at Berkeley is also gratefully acknowledged.     

In and Out of Balance: Industry Relatedness,Learning Capabilities and Post-Acquisition Innovative Performance

The existence of an inverted U-shaped effect of the relatedness between acquirer and acquired firm on the innovative performance subsequent to an acquisition is normally regarded as indicative of the existence of a trade-off between exploration and exploitation in external innovation search. We argue that acquirers endowed with heterogeneous learning capabilities can alter the shape of the trade-off to their favour. In particular, we focus on a notion of industry relatedness that captures the coherence between the domains of operation of the acquirer and the acquired firm. Using a longitudinal dataset of 1,736 domestic acquisitions in the Netherlands, we show that the heterogeneous learning capabilities of the acquirers alter the shape of the inverted-U relationship, according to first- and second-order moderating effects. Our results confirm that learning capabilities by internal R&D and by acquisition experience both improve what acquirers can achieve in innovative performance when industry relatedness is at the point of balance between exploration and exploitation. In contrast, they have opposite implications on the potential losses in innovative performance when industry relatedness is outside the point of balance: internal R&D increases the tolerance of the trade-off, smoothing out potential innovation losses, whereas acquisition experience reduces it.     

The role of codified sources of knowledge in innovation: Empirical evidence from Dutch manufacturing

This paper explores ongoing debates about the role that codified forms of knowledge play in fostering innovative behaviour. It aims to provide an empirical exploration of the use of codified sources of information for innovation at the firm and sectoral level. Despite considerable interest in David and Forays (1995) work on the codification of knowledge and the changing nature of innovation due to the use of information and communication technologies, there are relatively few empirical studies that probe the role of codified sources of information in the innovation process. Our goal is to assess how important codified sources of information are for innovation among different firms and sectors. We find that use of codified sources of knowledge is highly concentrated in high technology sectors and among firms with existing absorptive capacity. The analysis shows that the use of other sources of information for innovation is a strong predictor of a firms use of codified sources. The data used for the analysis is based on The Netherlands Community Innovation Survey (II) for the manufacturing sector and covers over 2001 firms in 11 industries.JEL Classification: L60, O32, O33     

Born to flip. Exit decisions of entrepreneurial firms in high-tech and low-tech industries

This paper examines the way that the exit behavior of entrepreneurial firms is shaped by their innovative capabilities, and the technology environment in which they operate. We distinguish between exit by closing down activity and exit by merger or acquisition (M&A). Using a large sample of Dutch manufacturing firms, we explore the relationship between firm exit, age and innovative capabilities, in high and low innovation intensive industries. We find that for entrepreneurial firms, innovation may go some way towards compensating for the liability of newness, but also makes them more attractive M&A targets. More specifically, entrepreneurial firms in high-tech industries do not seem to improve their chances of survival by innovating; when technological change is rapid, innovation, especially in products, is necessary to participate in the innovation race in an industry, but is not sufficient to guarantee survival. In contrast, in low-tech industries, process innovation is a critical condition for the survival of entrepreneurial firms. In this context, entrepreneurial firms that are able to bring new product ideas, introducing ‘exceptional’ variations into a stable environment, are most likely to exit by M&A, thereby transferring their knowledge and capabilities to the incumbent firms.