Contract modifications and the basis behavior of live cattle futures

The purpose of this study was to assess the basis behavior of the Live Cattle Futures contract at the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) before and after the 1995 contract changes. Additionally, an alternative method of basis calculation utilizing weighted mean futures prices versus settlement futures prices was compared to determine which method provides a better representation of the basis level. Within a regression model with heteroskedascity error framework, we found that the level of nearby basis in the period after June 1995 has shifted lower and the average monthly open interest of net commercial long positions has substantially increased after the contract modifications. These empirical results are consistent with the notion that more long activity entered the market in response to the contract modifications. Additionally, an alternative (new) measure of basis calculation (cash price minus weighted mean futures price) produced similar results to two other commonly used measures. In conclusion, the 1995 contract changes have neither increased nor decreased the volatility of live cattle basis. © 2004 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Jrl Fut Mark 24:557–590, 2004     

Approximate tâtonnement processes

Summary We introduce a probabilistic model for price adjustment in an exchange economy which approximates the classical Walras tâtonnement process while avoiding many of its unrealistic features. The model is decentralized in that the trades permitted to an agent and the resulting price changes depend only on the commodity vector currently held by that agent, and not on the commodity vectors held by the other agents in the economy. Our results will show that the Walras tâtonnement process can be decentralized without changing its behavior on the macroeconomic scale. Our model has a finite set of commodities, a market maker who adjusts prices, and a large finite set of agents who trade only with the market maker. Each agent has a demand function depending on his commodity vector and the price vector. At each discrete time, one agent is chosen at random and exchanges his current commodity vector for his demand vector. Then the market maker adjusts the price vector by an amount which depends on the selected agent's commodity vector and the current price. Prices are adjusted rapidly enough to avoid prolonged trading at the wrong price, but slowly enough so that a substantial price change will depend on a significant simple of agents. The main result shows that with probability arbitrarily close to one the price will rapidly approach and then remain close to an equilibrium value, following a path which is close to the price path of the corresponding tâtonnement process.     

The Helios strategy: An heretical view of the potential role of solar energy in the future of a small planet

Over the next hundred years there must be a worldwide transition from reliance on fossil fuels to the use of some combination of long-term and abundant primary sources for the production of heat, electricity, and synthetic fuels. The rate at which such options can be developed and employed, as well as the maximum rate at which they can provide energy at a sustained rate, will place important constraints on the rate and limits to growth of other human activities. It is generally argued that only the fission option, in the form of the fast-breeder and high-temperature reactors, can provide the energy required for a livable world, particularly if this means a world of 10 billion people living at the present energy level of Western Europe. However, a careful examination indicates that the use of solar energy, through a menu of technological options, can provide the needs of a world at this scale of energy use, and that this can be accomplished within the constraints of land availability and requirements for energy, materials, and labor. No scientific breakthroughs are required, although a number of these would be helpful, but very substantial engineering advances are required, and the transition of such a world-wide system would take no less than a century. However, the feasibility of such large-scale use of solar energy will substantially alter those aspects of the “limits to growth” discussions in which future growth strategies are constrained by available and acceptable energy alternatives. This paper outlines a global solar-energy system considered feasible for more than 10 billion people living at 5 kW per capita.     

Opportunity recognition and SME performance: the mediating effect of business model innovation

Opportunity recognition is vital for small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs), but SMEs face challenges in capturing recognized opportunities. Given that opportunity recognition does not automatically lead to higher SME performance and that SMEs need to take appropriate actions to exploit recognized opportunities to achieve better performance, it is imperative to explore the mediators that enable SMEs to translate opportunity recognition into higher performance. This study proposes that business model innovation may be a key conduit through which opportunity recognition affects SME performance. Based on a dataset of 155 SMEs, we find that the positive relationship between opportunity recognition and SME performance is mediated by business model innovation. These findings not only aid SMEs in accomplishing the performance effect of opportunity recognition, but also provide some insights into the implications of business model innovation.     

REPORTING GUIDELINES FOR META-ANALYSIS IN ECONOMICS

Meta-analysis has become the conventional approach to synthesizing the results of empirical economics research. To further improve the transparency and replicability of the reported results and to raise the quality of meta-analyses, the Meta-Analysis of Economics Research Network has updated the reporting guidelines that were published by this Journal in 2013. Future meta-analyses in economics will be expected to follow these updated guidelines or give valid reasons why a meta-analysis should deviate from them.     

Materialism through the eyes of Polish and American consumers

The research applies the Material Values Scale (MVS; Richins and Dawson, 1992) cross-culturally by comparing materialism among Polish and American business students. Cultural differences (e.g., greater humanistic/collectivistic/Christian values in Poland) suggest lower MVS scores for Poles than for Americans. This prediction is consistent with the Local Culture hypothesis (i.e., that a strong local culture results in maintenance of traditional values in defense against global forces). Contrary to predictions, data suggest no Polish-American materialism differences, a finding consistent with the globalization hypothesis (i.e., increasing globalization leads to relatively uniform worldwide materialism). As a precursor to hypotheses testing, confirmatory factor analysis (CFA) tests the construct validity and cross-cultural validity of the MVS. The findings suggest substantial difficulties with the scale that limit the confidence in conclusions based on the scale. Based on these findings, future research discussion aims at developing a measure of materialism with potentially greater construct validity for cross-cultural applications.     

The role of family decision makers in festival tourism

This study assessed the role of family decision makers in participating in a festival according to five stages of festival participation. A survey process was conducted using two sampling groups: the sample for families with children and the sample for families without children. According to the results of the study, a number of marketing implications were generated. For example, the husband was revealed to more actively join transportation-related activities including driving, deciding travel routes, automobile safety checks, and filling up with gasoline. The wife was a strong decision maker in selecting restaurants or menus in the festival tourism management process. Likewise, the role of the wife is very significant, from suggesting the festival participation at the first stage to determining a revisit to the festival at the last stage. However, the children or joint decision-making patterns were not distinctive as they are said to be in other tourism literature. Findings of the study are expected to offer valuable insights for all festival stakeholders including festival vendors, local government, local residents, and festival organizers.