Financial reforms and credit growth in Nigeria: empirical insights from ARDL and ECM techniques

In the last 37 years, Nigeria has undergone several stages of financial reforms with different impacts on the economy. This paper analyses the impact of these financial reforms on credit growth in Nigeria using annual data from 1980 to 2016. The research work hinges on the theoretical underpinning of McKinnon-Shaw hypothesis on the relevance of financial reforms in a lagging economy. Analysing the data with autoregressive distributed lag error correction representation and bounds testing techniques, we find evidence supporting this hypothesis, and specifically that at higher real interest rates there is increased financial intermediation evidenced by credit growth. Other findings are that in the long-run, financial system deposits, inflation rate and per capita GDP are strong asymmetrical predictors of credit growth and real interest rates (the financial reform indicator), while the short-run relationships are indicator-specific. We further show that a long-run cointegration relationship exists between domestic credit and other covariates and likewise between the real interest rate and its regressors.     

MICROFINANCE REGULATION AND SOCIAL SUSTAINABILITY OF MICROFINANCE INSTITUTIONS: THE CASE OF NIGERIA AND ZAMBIA

This study examines the effect of regulations on microfinance institutions in Nigeria and Zambia by focusing on the post‐regulation experiences and reflections of the microfinance institutions (MFIs) and their regulators. Based on in‐depth interviews with the Central Banks as regulators, MFI managers, practitioners and apex microfinance associations, the study finds that regulations in both countries have managed to professionalize the sector, but their effectiveness in augmenting the centrality of social goals to microfinance and MFIs remains doubtful. The poorly designed regulations are not only undermining social goals but also sending wrong signals to would be social investors, with implications for the social image of the industry. The study further finds that regulations have neither speeded the emergence of sustainable MFIs (especially in Zambia) nor accelerated the sectors’ outreach to the poor and the financially excluded. Additionally, considerable levels of political interference and poor regulation have led to unintended consequences to the sector, further frustrating the ultimate goal of extending financial services to the poor. These findings have policy and practical implications for how microfinance engages with the regulatory logic and continues to serve those at the bottom of the pyramid.