Media-Based Sentiment Indices as an Alternative Measure of Consumer Confidence

In this paper, we consider the feasibility of constructing online sentiment indices, using large amounts of media data, as an alternative to the conventional survey method used to create the consumer confidence index in South Africa. A clustering framework is adopted to provide an indication of possible candidate sentiment indices constructed from a combination of different text sources and dictionaries that best mimic the traditional survey-based consumer confidence index from the South African Bureau for Economic Research (BER). The results conclude that it is possible to create an index using sentiment analysis using online editorial data that does resemble the BER’s consumer confidence index. The different media-based sentiment indices (MSI) show a significant level of correlation and co-movement with the BER’s CCI. Impulse responses and cross-correlation functions indicate that the MSI could potentially lead the survey-based method up to two quarters. Furthermore, Granger-causality tests show that the media-based indices are good predictors of future consumer confidence index values. The results provide motivation for further study on the use of sentiment-based techniques and online media data sources to track consumer confidence within an emerging market such as South Africa.     

A comparison of franchise and independent small business survival rates

Aspiring entrepreneurs choosing to become franchisees certainly expect to improve their chances of survival during the turbulent early years of business startup and operation. Alignment with a franchisor parent company offers the franchisee managerial assistance, access to financial capital, and access to markets via the right to utilize the parent company trademark. This study examines survival patterns among franchise and nonfranchise small firms started between 1984 and 1987: survival through late 1991 is tracked for all firms. Although the franchise operations are larger scale, better capitalized young firms, the independent business startups are found to be more profitable and their survival prospects are better than those of franchises.Research reported in this study was supported by the Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars and it was conducted on-site at the Center for Economic Studies, U.S. Bureau of the Census. Findings expressed are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of the U.S. Bureau of the Census. Suggestions and assistance from Alfred Nucci and Robert McGuckin are gratefully acknowledged.     

Spouses' materialism: Effects of parenthood status,personality type,and sex

This study responds to a call for broadened conceptualizations of materialism and its role in self-definition (Richins & Dawson, 1992). Data from 202 spouses were analyzed for relationships among materialism, parenthood status, and personality type, defined as spousal warmness or coolness (Csikszentmihalyi & Rochberg-Halton, 1981). Testable hypotheses were based on the concept of object-subject interchangeability (Claxton & Murray, 1994) as a mechanism of self-definition. The hypothesis was supported that cool spouses without children would have the highest materialism score. Total sample materialism scores were related to parenthood status and to several interactions among parenthood status, personality type, and sex of respondent. Analyzed by sex of respondent, men's materialism scores were related to parenthood status and to the interaction between parenthood status and personality type. Women's materialism scores were not related to any independent variables or interactions. Consumer policy implications are discussed.

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Zusammenfassung Materialismus von Ehegatten: Effekte von Elternschaft, Persönlichkeitstyp und Geschlecht Die Studie reagiert auf die Forderung nach einer breiteren Konzeptualisierung der Materialismus-Variable und der Rolle von Materialismus bei der Selbst-Definition. Die Daten stammen von 202 Ehegatten und wurden auf die Beziehungen hin analysiert, die zwischen Materialismus, Elternschaft und Persönlichkeitstyp (definiert als eheliche WÄrme und eheliche Nüchternheit) bestehen. Die Hypothesen basieren auf dem Konzept der Objekt-Subjekt-Austauschbarkeit als Mechanismus der Selbst-Definition. BestÄtigt wurde die Hypothese, da\ nüchterne Ehegatten ohne Kinder den höchsten Materialismuswert haben. Insgesamt waren die Materialismuswerte abhÄngig von der Variable Elternschaft und von mehreren Wechselwirkungen zwischen Elternschaft, Persönlichkeitstyp und Geschlecht des Antwortenden. Eine geschlechtsspezifische Analyse zeigt, da\ die Materialismuswerte der MÄnner mit Elternschaft und mit der Wechselwirkung zwischen Elternschaft und Persönlichkeitstyp verbunden sind. Bei den Materialismuswerten der Frauen zeigte sich keine Beziehung zu einer der unabhÄngigen Variablen oder den Wechselwirkungen. Der Beitrag schlie\t mit einigen verbraucherpolitischen Implikationen.

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The study is based on the first author's dissertation. The authors gratefully acknowledge the assistance of a 1993 summer research grant from East Carolina University, and the reviewers' helpful comments.     

Nowcasting South African gross domestic product using a suite of statistical models

Given lags in the release of data, a central bank must ‘nowcast’ current gross domestic product (GDP) using available quarterly or higher frequency data to understand the current state of economic activity. This paper uses various statistical modelling techniques to draw on a large number of series to nowcast South African GDP. We also show that GDP volatility has increased markedly over the last 5 years, making GDP forecasting more difficult. We show that all the models developed, as well as the Reserve Bank's official forecasts, have tended to overestimate GDP growth over this period. However, several of the statistical nowcasting models we present in this paper provide competitive nowcasts relative to the official Reserve Bank and market analysts' nowcasts.     

Program Evaluation and Review Technique (PERT) in Construction Schedule Risk Assessment

Construction project scheduling is one of the most critical factors for project success measurement.Not only for the project planning but for construction process management,the scheduling is the basic tool for communication between the owner and the project manager.By developing the schedule before the project starts,the owner knows in advance that the expected timeline of the project.By preparing construction process scheduling,the owner and general contractor can better manage the subcontractors,sub-trades progress,materials storage and deliveries,labors schedule and equipment set up which will eventually save time,money and hassle.Basically,Critical Path Method(CPM) is commonly used in the construction industry.CPM is a deterministic method that assumes that through the network,there is at least one path that determines the project duration and that the path is the critical path.CPM does not consider the uncertainty in the activities;rather it assumes that each activity can be finished in the given situation.Program Evaluation and Review Technique(PERT) is a stochastic technique which is based on the assumption that the duration of a single activity can be described by a probability density function.PERT takes into account the uncertainty during the construction process and has been created out of the need to plan,schedule and control complex projects with many uncertainties.The PERT approach is stated in some books and papers,but there is no deep investigation on the application in the schedule risk assessment.This paper investigates the PERT work process and takes a valuable try on the construction schedule risk assessment by using case studies.The utilization in the estimate the construction liquidated damage with the uncertainties is performed,which also can be used in the insurance company to calculate the insurance premium.     

Auditing Goodwill in the Post‐Amortization Era: Challenges for Auditors

The elimination of goodwill amortization in 2001 brought about significant change in how companies are required to account for goodwill. This change in accounting also brought with it new challenges for auditors, namely evaluating the reasonableness of management's assumptions related to goodwill valuation. In addition to introducing technical challenges, this task is particularly difficult given the misalignment in incentives it creates between managers who likely prefer to avoid recording an impairment and auditors who seek to minimize the bias in management's impairment testing. This study focuses on the consequences of the misaligned incentives that auditors face under the current goodwill assessment process. We find that the decision to record a goodwill impairment is associated with an increase in the probability of auditor dismissal. Consistent with the presence of significant friction with clients, our results also indicate that the likelihood of auditor dismissals is negatively related to the favorability of the impairment decision. Furthermore, we find that companies impairing goodwill prior to dismissing auditors subsequently employ auditors that are, on average, more favorable to clients in their impairment decisions.     

Impact of Auditor Report Changes on Financial Reporting Quality and Audit Costs: Evidence from the United Kingdom

While substantial revisions to auditor reporting requirements are being implemented internationally, the impact of these reforms on financial reporting quality is unknown. We exploit the United Kingdom's recent auditor reporting changes and find that the United Kingdom's new reporting regime is associated with an improvement in financial reporting quality as proxied by significant decreases in absolute abnormal accruals and the propensity to just meet or beat analyst forecasts, and a significant increase in earnings response coefficients. As for audit costs, we do not find a significant change in audit fees or audit delay surrounding the implementation of the new reporting regime. Taken together, the results of this study suggest that new auditor reporting requirements are associated with a significant improvement in financial reporting quality without detecting a significant increase in audit costs.     

Satisfaction with the Informational Value of Magazine and Television Advertising

Abstract

This survey examines consumer satisfaction with the informational value of magazine and television advertising. Three significant conclusions are indicated by the data: (1) consumers are more satisfied with the informational value of magazine advertising than television advertising; (2) blacks are more satisfied with the informational value of both types of advertising than whites; and (3) middle-income are more satisfied with the informational value of both types of advertising than are low - and high-income.     

Organizational learning culture,learning transfer climate and perceived innovation in Jordanian organizations

This paper examines the relationship between organizational learning culture, learning transfer climate, and organizational innovation. The objective was to test the ability of learning organization culture to account for variance in learning transfer climate and subsequent organizational innovation, and to examine the role of learning transfer climate as a mediator between learning organization culture and innovation. Results showed that organizational learning culture predicted learning transfer climate, and both these factors accounted for significant variance in organizational innovation.