Efficient Markets Hypothesis and the Emerging Capital Market in Sri Lanka: Evidence from the Colombo Stock Exchange – A Note

The behaviour of stock prices on the Colombo Stock Exchange (CSE) is examined with a view to determine its consistency with the weak form of the Efficient Markets Hypothesis (EMH). Runs, Autocorrelation and Cointegration tests are applied to daily, weekly and monthly CSE index data for the period of January 1991–November 1996. Results of Runs, Correlation and Cointegration tests overwhelmingly reject the serial independence hypothesis, leading to the conclusion that the behaviour of stock prices in the Colombo Stock Exchange is not consistent with the weak form of the Efficient Markets Hypothesis. Tests of the-day-of-the-week-effect, however, show that there is no evidence of such a phenomenon on the Colombo Stock Exchange stock prices. Results of the tests of the-month-of-the-year-effect lead to the conclusion that CSE prices do not display any month-specific behaviour.     

Salespeople’s use of upward influence tactics (UITs) in coping with role stress

Researchers’ attentions have recently focused on how salespeople cope with role stress. This study focuses on salespersons’ use of six upward influence tactics (UITs) with the immediate sales manager, and how salespeople use UITs to lessen the impact of two role stressors (perceived role conflict and role ambiguity) associated with the sales job. The study also evaluates the potential moderating role of UITs on relationships between role stress and manager satisfaction and propensity to leave. Analysis of data gathered from a heterogeneous sample revealed differences in use of UITs between salespeople classified as either high or low in role stress. Salespeople who perceive high role conflict employ assertiveness and upward appeal UITs more frequently. Salespeople who perceive high role ambiguity use exchange and coalition-building UITs more frequently. Results also suggest that salespersons’ use of assertiveness and ingratiation UITs exacerbate relationships between perceived role ambiguity and two outcomes: satisfaction with supervisor and propensity to leave. Implications of the study findings for sales managers are reviewed, as are implications for further research. His research interests are in the areas of personal selling and sales management. His work has appeared inJournal of Education for Business, Journal of Marketing Theory and Practice, and various national and international conference proceedings. Jeffrey K. Sager, Ph. D., conducts research in the areas of salesperson turnover and job stress. His work has appeared in theJournal of the Academy of Marketing Science, Journal of Personal Selling and Sales Management, andJournal of Business Research. His research interests are in the fields of strategic management and organizational behavior. His research has been published in theAcademy of Management Journal, Journal of Applied Psychology, and several other journals.     

Valuation of VIX and target volatility options with affine GARCH models

In this paper we propose semiclosed-form solutions, subject to an inversion of the Fourier transform, for the price of VIX options and target volatility options under affine GARCH models based on Gaussian and Inverse Gaussian distributions. We illustrate the advantage of the proposed analytic expressions by comparing them with those obtained from benchmark Monte–Carlo simulations. The empirical performance of the two affine GARCH models is tested using different calibration exercises based on historical returns and market quotes on VIX and SPX options.     

Risk aversion, generalized correlation and investment in manufacturing capacities

This study analyzes the relationship between product demand correlation and risk on the investment in dedicated and flexible manufacturing capacities. It is proved that for a risk averse (or risk neutral) decision-maker, increased generalized correlation between output demands reduces the values of both dedicated and flexible manufacturing investments for all multivariate distributions. It is shown that no such monotonic relationship generally exists for the capacities themselves because of an economic tradeoff between risk and return. It is also proved that increased generalized correlation reduces the value of flexible capacity relative to dedicated capacity for the risk-neutral decision maker. However, contrary to the extant literature, flexible capacity is still shown to be potentially valuable even if product demands are perfectly positively correlated. Finally, it is shown that increases in the risk of product demand, holding correlation (of product demand) constant, reduces the value of the investment in manufacturing capacities when output demands are either jointly normal or independent.     

R&D Reporting Biases and Their Consequences*

The immediate expensing of research and development (R&D) expenditures is often justified by the conservatism principle. However, no accounting procedure consistently applied can be conservative throughout the firm's life. We therefore ask the following questions: (1) When is the expensing of R&D conservative and when is it aggressive, relative to R&D capitaliza‐tion? (2) What are the capital‐market implications of these reporting biases? To address these questions we construct a model of profitability biases (differences between reported profitability under R&D expensing and capitalization) and show that the key drivers of the reporting biases are the differences between R&D growth and earnings growth (momentum), and between R&D growth and return on equity (ROE). Companies with a high R&D growth rate relative to their profitability (typically early life‐cycle companies) report conservatively, while firms with a low R&D growth rate (mature companies) tend to report aggressively under current generally accepted accounting principles. Our empirical analysis, covering the period 1972‐2003, generally supports the analytical predictions. In the valuation analysis we find evidence consistent with investor fixation on the reported profitability measures: we detect undervaluation of conservatively reporting firms and overvaluation of aggressively reporting firms. These misvaluations appear to be corrected when the reporting biases reverse from conservative to aggressive and vice versa. This evidence is consistent with behavioral finance arguments about investor cognitive biases.     

Capital Inflows and the Real Exchange Rate: A Comparative Study of Asia and Latin America

The nexus of real exchange rate (RER) and capital inflows is examined through a comparative analysis of the experiences of emerging market economies in Asian and Latin America during the period 1985‐2000. It is found that the degree of appreciation in RER associated with capital inflow is uniformly much higher in Latin American countries compared to their Asian counterparts, despite the fact that the latter experienced far greater foreign capital inflows relative to the size of the economy. The econometric evidence suggests that both the composition of capital flows and differences in the degree of response of RER to capital flows matter in explaining these contrasting experiences. While RER appreciation is a phenomenon predominantly associated with other (non‐FDI) forms of capital inflows (OCFW), a given level of OCFW brings about a far greater degree of appreciation of the real exchange rate in Latin America where the importance of these flows in total capital inflow is also far greater. On the policy front, Asian countries seem to have used fiscal contraction and nominal exchange rate adjustment more effectively to cushion the RER against the appreciation pressure of capital inflows. There is, however, no evidence to suggest that sterilised intervention can generate a lasting impact on the real exchange rate.     

The mobile shopping revolution: Redefining the consumer decision process

The use of mobile devices by consumers and the accompanying response by retailers is rapidly revolutionizing the retail environment. In the past, retailers have focused primarily on the outcome (to purchase or not to purchase) of the consumer decision process, but now mobile technologies give retailers the opportunity to more actively influence the entire consumer decision-making processes. The increasing use of mobile devices by consumers makes shopping a continuous rather than discrete activity that requires retailers to engage with their customers at critical touch points of the decision process in order to provide a more customer-centric experience. This change in focus from the decision outcome to the decision process signifies an important paradigm shift for the retailing industry. After an extensive review of the literature, we identify four pillars that form the foundation for the mobile shopping revolution and represent the essential ways and means through which retailers can engage with consumers during the decision process. We also discuss the different areas in which the pillars can enable retailers to achieve a sustainable competitive advantage in the mobile shopping era.     

Identifying College Students Likely to Participate in a Travel Abroad Volunteer Project

Foreign travel provides excellent opportunities for college students to broaden their global mindset. While empirical research focusing on variables that influence student participation in study abroad programs are available, there is a paucity of research that focuses on travel abroad programs relating to participating in volunteer projects. Using a sample of 193 undergraduate business students, this study attempts to develop profiles of students that are “not likely,” “maybe,” and “most likely” to participate in a travel abroad volunteer project. Those who were “mostly likely” to participate had traveled abroad before, demonstrated high levels of self-congruity and diversity seeking, and stated financial costs to be less of a constraint in participating in such a project. Discussion of findings and direction for future research is also provided.