Does Monetary Policy Respond to Uncertainty? Evidence from Australia

We construct a novel measure of uncertainty using expert monetary policy recommendation data for Australia. Our results suggest that the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) tends to lower the cash rate when expert uncertainty is high. This result is robust to using other uncertainty measures.     

Exploring online comments from a strategic marketing stance to reduce wildlife crime

Illegal wildlife trade (IWT) is an omnipresent global threat to ecological, social, and economic systems. Marketing expertise can aid in the mitigation and reduction of crime against wildlife using a variety of mechanisms. This paper focuses on how social media usage relates to the framing of conservation appeals. By studying the content of existing blogs, articles, white papers, and other online postings, we extract relevant themes and concepts. Conducting an unguided semantic analysis of our data, we analyzed messaging appeal strategies and the underlying social or informational frameworks they employ. Using literature on advertising appeal types and contrasting social/emotional with knowledge-based/informational messaging strategies, we identified how wildlife crime prevention content employs these rhetorical framing mechanisms. Through the lens of social learning theory, our study proposes messaging strategies as a framework for understanding online content. Crimes against wildlife are creating increasingly severe ecological, economic, and social damage within international political and social communities; individuals learn from and engage with online content, therefore appropriate framing mechanisms can aid marketers in designing effective prevention appeals.     

DURATION,DEFAULT RISK,AND THE TERM STRUCTURE OF INTEREST RATES

We examine the interactive effect of default and interest rate risk on duration of defaultable bonds. We show that duration for defaultable bonds can be longer or shorter than default‐free bonds depending on the relation between default intensity and interest rates. Empirical evidence indicates that in most cases duration for defaultable bonds is much shorter than for their default‐free counterparts because of the negative relation between default risk and interest rates. Results suggest that the duration measure must be adjusted for the effects of default risk and stochastic interest rates to achieve an effective bond portfolio immunization.     

A multi-item supply chain with credit periods and weight freight cost discounts

It is possible to realize considerable savings by aggregating the replenishment of a variety of items in a multi-item supply chain. This joint multi-item replenishment policy has already been widely applied in a variety of industries. This type of policy may make it possible for the retailer to take advantage of transport economies of scale by the utilization of freight discounts for greater weight. In addition, a supplier will often extend forward financing to a retailer. In this paper, a multi-item supply chain with a credit period and weight freight cost discounts is considered. The retailer bears the freight costs, but the freight carrier provides freight-transport discounts that are positively related to the weight of the cargo transported. From both the individual and the channel perspectives, we deal with the dual problems of determining the ideal supplier credit period, and of the best way for the retailer to make multi-item replenishment and pricing decisions, while still maximizing profits. We outline the optimal properties and develop algorithms for solving the problems described, as well as discuss the impact of the freight cost discounts, the inventory holding cost, and the interest rate on the behavior of both parties.     

Incorporating real-options analysis into the accounting curriculum

In this paper, we argue that accounting curricula should be expanded to cover the topic of real options. Our argument relies on reference to the [American Institute of Certified Public Accountants (AICPA) (1999) (Core Competency Framework, New York, NY: AICPA <http://ceae.aicpa.org/Resources/Education+and+Curriculum+Development/Core+Competency+Framework+and+Educational+Competency+Assessment+Web+Site/> Accessed 21.08.08], the framework for curriculum change espoused by [Arya, A., Fellingham, J. C., & Schroeder, D. A. (2003). An academic curriculum proposal. Issues in Accounting Education, 18(1) 29–35], a global study of core competencies for management accountants [International Federation of Accountants (IFAC), (2002). Competency profiles for management accounting practice and practitioners. New York, NY: International Federation of Accountants], a global capital-budgeting “best practices statement” [International Federation of Accountants (IFAC), (2008). International good practice guidance: Project appraisal using discounted cash flow. New York, NY: International Federation of Accountants], current specifications of the CMA exam [Institute of Management Accountants (IMA), (2008). Certified management accountant (CMA) learning outcome statements (effective 07/01/04), updated 07/2008. <http://www.imanet.org/pdf/CMA%20%20LOS.pdf> Accessed 29.10.08.], and elements of the Albrecht and Sack report [Albrecht, W. S., & Sack, R. J. (2000). Accounting education: Charting the course through a perilous future. Accounting education series, Vol. 16. Sarasota, FL: American Accounting Association]. We make special reference to the linkage of the topic of real options to two broad educational goals: decision-modeling and risk analysis. Existing resources that accounting faculty can use to incorporate real options into the curriculum are limited. As a response, we provide an extended example that accounting educators can use to cover the topic of real options. This example uses a set of binomial trees (one for cash inflows and another for cash outflows). The step-by-step approach presented in this paper allows students without a technical/mathematical background to extend discounted-cash-flow (DCF) decision models (e.g., NPV) to incorporate real options that are embedded in proposed investment projects.     

A model for risky cash flows and tax shields

We extend the WACC and APV frameworks by incorporating risky cash flows and the potential loss of tax shields. A closed-form solution is derived for the expected effective tax shields. Our model explains the under-leverage puzzle, and provides better estimates for the required equity return through the improved WACC and APV formulae. It offers four empirically testable predictions.     

How much of the corporate bond spread is due to personal taxes?

Existing term structure models of defaultable bonds have often underestimated corporate bond spreads. A potential problem is that investors’ taxes are ignored in these models. We propose a pricing model that accounts for stochastic default probability and differential tax treatments for discount and premium bonds. By estimating parameters directly from bond data, we obtain significantly positive estimates for the income tax rate of a marginal corporate bond investor after 1986. This contrasts sharply with the previous finding that the implied tax rates for Treasury bonds are close to zero. Results show that taxes explain a substantial portion of corporate bond spreads.     

Daily Business and External Condition Indices for the Australian Economy

We estimate an unobservable domestic business conditions index for Australia using a variety of observable macroeconomic and financial variables, relating it to an unobservable external index involving external variables relevant to Australia. Our small open economy, dynamic factor model uses stock and flow variables arriving at mixed frequencies. We find important links between the domestic and external indices, consistent with the small open economy assumption.