When do the stock market returns to new product preannouncements predict product performance? Empirical evidence from the U.S. automotive industry

Substantial research has examined how stock market reactions to marketing actions affect subsequent marketing decisions. However, prior research provides limited insights into whether abnormal stock returns to a marketing action actually predict the future performance resulting from that action. This study focuses on new product preannouncements (NPPAs) and investigates the relationship between short-term stock market returns to an NPPA and the post-launch new product performance under various industry and firm conditions. Findings based on a dynamic panel data analysis of 208 NPPAs in the U.S. automotive industry between 2001 and 2014 reveal that stock returns associated with an NPPA are not an appropriate forward-looking measure of future product performance. However, under specific conditions (i.e., when the preannouncement is specific, the preannounced new product has low innovativeness, the preannouncing firm has a high reputation and invests heavily in advertising, and the preannouncement environment is less competitive), abnormal stock returns to NPPAs actually predict the future performance of new products. Thus, this study extends the marketing–finance and innovation literature with its focus on the conditions that affect the predictive power of immediate stock returns for the future performance of new products.     

Exploring Correlates of Product Launch in Collaborative Ventures: An Empirical Investigation of Pharmaceutical Alliances

This paper examines collaborative ventures leading toward the launch of new products in the pharmaceutical industry. These collaborative ventures are one of the most underresearched areas in the new product literature, yet the preponderance of these collaborative ventures makes it an area of great importance for scholars and practitioners alike. As such, the purpose of the study is to examine why some collaborative projects produce a favorable outcome (the launch of a product) whereas others do not. That is, what characteristics of partner firms in the collaborative ventures and what characteristics of the partnership lead to a successful launch of a new product in the pharmaceutical industry? Secondary data from the pharmaceutical industry are employed in a multinomial logit model. Data from 128 collaborative ventures from 1980 to 2004 are used in the analysis. The partner firms in the collaborative ventures are from various industries ranging from malt beverages to pharmaceutical preparations to electronic and other equipment among others. Of the 128 collaborative ventures, 66 were successful in leading to a new product launch, whereas 62 did not result in the launch of a new product. The results from the multinomial logit analysis suggest that combined marketing resources of parent companies, combined technological intensity of parent companies, and combined asset bases of parent companies contribute to the likelihood of an eventual product launch in a collaborative venture. However, the results of the analysis show that contrary to expectations, technological complementarity of partners in the collaborative venture is not a significant predictor of successful new product launch. The results of the study suggest certain aspects for managers to consider when establishing collaborative ventures. To maximize the possibilities of the collaborative venture leading to the successful launching of a new product, managers should be concerned with the resources potentially available to partners in the collaborative venture from parent firms. These resources are not only of financial nature but also of technological nature. The existence of these resources does not ensure provision of resources to the collaborative venture; however, without the possibility of these resources it appears that successful launch of a product is less likely.     

Quantiles of the Euler Scheme for Diffusion Processes and Financial Applications

In this paper we briefly present the results obtained in our paper ( Talay and Zheng 2002a ) on the convergence rate of the approximation of quantiles of the law of one component of  ( X_t )  , where  ( X_t )  is a diffusion process, when one uses a Monte Carlo method combined with the Euler discretization scheme. We consider the case where  ( X_t )  is uniformly hypoelliptic (in the sense of Condition (UH) below), or the inverse of the Malliavin covariance of the component under consideration satisfies the condition (M) below. We then show that Condition (M) seems widely satisfied in applied contexts. We particularly study financial applications: the computation of quantiles of models with stochastic volatility, the computation of the VaR of a portfolio, and the computation of a model risk measurement for the profit and loss of a misspecified hedging strategy.     

Technical analysis compared to mathematical models based methods under parameters mis-specification

In this study, we compare the performance of trading strategies based on possibly mis-specified mathematical models with a trading strategy based on a technical trading rule. In both cases, the trader attempts to predict a change in the drift of the stock return occurring at an unknown time. We explicitly compute the trader’s expected logarithmic utility of wealth for the various trading strategies. We next rely on Monte Carlo numerical experiments to compare their performance. The simulations show that under parameter mis-specification, the technical analysis technique out-performs the optimal allocation strategy but not the Model and Detect strategies. The latter strategies dominance is confirmed under parameter mis-specification as long as the two stock returns’ drifts are high in absolute terms.     

Model misspecification analysis for bond options and Markovian hedging strategies

In this paper, we analyse the model misspecification risk of Markovian hedging strategies for discount bond options. We show how to decompose the Profit and Loss that results from model misspecification, and emphasize the importance of the position’s gamma in order to control it. We further provide mathematical results on the distribution of the forward Profit and Loss function for specific univariate term structure models. Finally, we run numerical simulations for options’ hedging strategies in order to examine the sensitivity of the forward Profit and Loss function with respect to the volatility of the forward rate curve, the frequency of the position rebalancing and the characteristics of the position being hedged.      

Factors Influencing Brand Launch in a Global Marketplace

The purpose of this study is to explore the factors that influence the launch of brands into new markets in a global environment. Although multiple streams of literature exist with respect to the entry of brands into new markets and the diffusion of new brands within and across markets, the process of launching products and brands globally over time has received relatively limited attention. To address this issue, this study incorporates multiple indicators of activities that can contribute to experiential learning relevant for launching brands in a global marketplace. Market uncertainty and experiential learning provide a conceptual foundation for the development of relevant hypotheses, which are tested in the context of the global automotive industry from 1981 to 2004. A discrete time event history analysis with time‐varying independent variables is employed to estimate the effects of the independent variables on the probability of a brand being launched in a specific market. The global brand launch observations are extracted from a proprietary dataset containing the global dispersion of automotive brands including 22 countries of origin and 42 countries of brand entry. The sample yields 50,572 spells, derived from 99 companies, 173 brands, and 700 market entries. The results of this study contribute to the literature in a variety of ways. Market attractiveness positively influences the propensity of a brand to be launched into a new market. This supports the idea that potential demand conditions are an important managerial consideration in product introduction decisions. The results reveal significant effects with respect to the role of psychic distance and experiential learning. Brands are reluctant to launch into countries that are culturally and economically less similar to the home market. Yet firms tend to place a lower degree of emphasis on factors of cultural distance when launching brands into larger markets, and global experience enables companies to overcome the uncertainties associated with launching brands into international markets that are economically distant. The results also suggest that companies are more likely to introduce additional brands in markets where they already have a presence. Overall, global dispersion and geographic scope, coupled with local market knowledge facilitate the launch of brands globally. From a managerial perspective, this study suggests companies should focus on acquiring both local and global experience to facilitate the launch of products and brands in the global marketplace.     

Cultural variations in the use of marketing signals: a multilevel analysis of the motion picture industry

Movies are experiential products that include a myriad of cultural cues, and their box office performance varies across countries with different cultural backgrounds. The profusion of studies on the motion picture industry notwithstanding, this aspect has been largely ignored in the literature. Drawing on signaling theory, this study examines how a country’s cultural fabric moderates the impact of movie-related signals on the opening weekend box office performance. We test our hypotheses using a multilevel model and a comprehensive dataset of 1,116 movies released in 27 countries between 2007 and 2011. Results reveal that the impact of star power on box office performance is amplified in high uncertainty avoidance and indulgent cultures, while it is attenuated in high power distance cultures. Moreover, the positive relationship between sequels and performance wanes in individualist cultures. Movies with high production budgets perform better in culturally open countries, while critics’ reviews are more instrumental in high uncertainty avoidance cultures.