On estimating the reliability after sequentially estimating the mean: The exponential case

Sequential estimation problems for the mean parameter of an exponential distribution has received much attention over the years. Purely sequential and accelerated sequential estimators and their asymptotic second-order characteristics have been laid out in the existing literature, both for minimum risk point as well as bounded length confidence interval estimation of the mean parameter. Having obtained a data set from such sequentially designed experiments, the paper investigates estimation problems for the associatedreliability function. Second-order approximations are provided for the bias and mean squared error of the proposed estimator of the reliability function, first under a general setup. An ad hoc bias-corrected version is also introduced. Then, the proposed estimator is investigated further under some specific sequential sampling strategies, already available in the literature. In the end, simulation results are presented for comparing the proposed estimators of the reliability function for moderate sample sizes and various sequential sampling strategies.     

Dynamics of agricultural land use change in Kerala: a policy and social-ecological perspective

Land-use change is a phenomenon highlighting significant shifts in human interaction with the natural environment. Different patterns of agriculture and a trend towards non-agricultural land use challenge the sustainability of farming systems. This study aims to identify the causes of changes in land use and cropping patterns, with a special focus on paddy, the staple crop in Asia. In the case of Wayanad, a district in Kerala, South India, we argue for an interdisciplinary analysis of rapid land-use change to unpack the multiple dimensions of sustainability: economic, ecological and social factors, aggregating up to 70% reduction in the area under paddy by 2010. The results rest on empirical field research, participatory rural appraisals and stakeholder workshops conducted during the 4-year period from 2010 to 2013, along with state- and district-level data covering the 1983–2011 period. Reduced economic viability, labour shortages and population pressure on land are the major drivers for the transformation of paddy fields to other land uses. Changes in land use and agrarian structure reflect not only the livelihood strategies adopted by farmers in response to these drivers, but also the impacts of unintended policy idiosyncrasies. At a more fundamental level, they are the consequences of policy conflicts and inadequate sectoral integration of policies and implementation strategies.     

Evolving regulations and emerging market challenges – the Indian context

The global financial crisis of 2007–2008 has led to important regulatory changes being initiated by a number of countries to segregate commercial banking from investment banking activities. The changes also encompass reforms in the OTC derivatives market segment, which is considered to be one of the root causes of the crisis. This article highlights the important regulatory change initiatives that are being undertaken to enhance the safety of the financial markets, their likely impact on the market participants and challenges to be faced in their implementation, especially in the Indian context. The article also analyses the changes taking place in the Indian forex derivatives market and touches upon the prospects of greater internationalization of the rupee against the backdrop of proactive steps taken by the Chinese authorities to internationalize renminbi in the post-crisis period.     

‘We (don’t) know how you feel’ – a comparative study of automated vs. manual analysis of social media conversations

Abstract

The ever-growing volume of brand-related conversations on social media platforms has captivated the attention of academics and practitioners, as the analysis of those conversations promises to offer unparalleled insight into consumers’ emotions. This article takes a step back from the hype, and investigates the vulnerabilities related to the analysis of social media data concerning consumers’ sentiment. A review of the literature indicates that the form, focus, source and context of the communication may negatively impact on the analyst’s ability to identify sentiment polarity and emotional state. Likewise, the selection of analytical tool, the creation of codes, and the classification of the data, adversely affect the researcher’s ability to accurately assess the sentiment expressed in a social media conversation. Our study of Twitter conversations about coffee shows low levels of agreement between manual and automated analysis, which is of grave concern given the popularity of the latter in consumer research.     

A Brownian Motion Model for Technology Transfer: Application to a Machine Maintenance Expert System

Based on an analogy to the physical phenomenon of Brownian motion, Venkatesh Padmanabhan and Wm. E. Souder present a general purpose model to assist in the successful transfer of newly developed technologies. The model, named Techtran II, is successfully demonstrated with ten case studies showing how it helps managers develop a priori intervention strategies for improving transfer likelihoods. The results suggest that Techtran II can assist in overcoming problems in successful new product development, commercialization, transfer and user adoption. The Techtran II computer program is available to interested users and researchers.     

The Operational Hedging Properties of Intangible Assets: the Case of Non–voluntary Foreign Asset Selloffs

In this paper we examine the valuation effects and long–term performance of US multinational firms involved in forced transfers of their foreign operating assets during the 1965–88 period. The evidence suggests that the operational hedging ability of the firm to address country risk (nationalization threats) is related to the level of its intangible assets. While it is well known that firms with high levels of intangible assets prefer foreign direct investment, our results show that intangible assets have hidden properties of protection against country risk as well. We document significantly negative abnormal returns only for divesting firms with low levels of intangible assets, but not for firms with high levels of intangible assets. In addition, we show that low (high) growth firms are involved in partial (complete) withdrawals, and show that the long–term economic performance of firms choosing the complete withdrawal strategy is better than those that opt to remain. We argue that management's attempt to maintain economic links in a hostile foreign environment can be attributed in part to the firm's low growth opportunities, performance, and lack of contingent plans to address country risk.     

Conditional Heteroskedasticity and Global Stock Return Distributions

This paper investigates conditional return distribution characteristics for seven developed markets (DMs) and eight emerging markets (EMs). With the exception of Germany and Japan, the behavior of monthly returns of DM sample countries is similar to that of the U.S. In contrast, EM returns exhibit a substantially greater degree of serial correlation and a higher incidence of autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity (ARCH) in monthly data. Aggregation of returns into two- and three-month holding periods decreases the significance of the ARCH effects. However, there are cross-sectional differences in the rate at which ARCH effects become insignificant. The findings of ARCH in monthly returns sample data is attributed to differences in the rate at which information arrives and is transmitted into prices in each market.     

Leveraging uncertainty through backorder

Business models based on postponement are being increasingly adopted by firms in categories ranging from consumer electronics and information technology to automobiles. Backorder is one example of this system wherein firm produces the product after receiving an order from the customer and they represent a stark contrast to the traditional Make-to-stock (MTS) system where firm anticipates demand and satisfies it from finished inventory. The popularity of postponement is primarily attributed to the operational efficiencies that it can generate for a firm in dealing with highly uncertain and dynamic demand environments. Our focus in this paper is on understanding the implications of the interaction of demand uncertainty and consumer heterogeneity for the optimality of these different systems. We show that the combination of these two forces requires the firm to use both backorder and MTS simultaneously. The optimality of backorder depends on the extent of demand uncertainty—products that exhibit relatively higher demand volatility are better candidates for backorder. Importantly, the combination of the two systems has significant implications for the firm’s product line decision (in terms of product qualities) and pricing.     

Marketing modeling reality and the realities of marketing modeling

This paper shows how analytic modeling research in the Marketing field is focused on answering questions of “How?” and “Why?” It describes the disciplines involved in analytic modeling; examines how the key criteria of parsimony and robustness help to define a good model; and discusses other goodness criteria, including appropriate use of analytic techniques, applicability of the model to institutionally rich, real-world problems, non-obvious results, generalizability, and ability to provide insight where other research techniques do not work. The paper defines and discusses key concepts in analytic models of distribution channels, including double marginalization, coordination, incentive alignment and contract design, strategic substitutability and complementarity, externalities, and principal–agent problems. Next, the paper summarizes research presented in the session on analytic models in channels at the Erin Anderson conference; and finally, the paper suggests avenues for future analytic modeling research.