Welfare and comparative statics implications of fair social security : A steady-state analysis

This paper examines the steady-state welfare and comparative statics implications of fair social security in an overlapping generations model with uncertain lifetime. The model is designed to capture the effects of lifetime uncertainty extending over the individual's entire lifespan, the effects of intentional and unintentional bequests, and the effects of the earning profile. He shows that the welfare effects depend on the size of the benefits and the structure of the social security tax. In particular, even fair social security may have negative welfare implications if the underlying tax structure is ill-designed. Some comparative statics implications are analyzed.     

A mechanism for thawing the credit markets

This paper describes a mechanism designed to induce commercial banks to increase their willingness to extend loans in an economic environment characterized by increased uncertainty and diminished expectations. This mechanism is a new tool for the conduct of monetary policy to combat recessions.     

On the correspondence between multivariate risk aversion and risk aversion with state-dependent preferences

This paper establishes the correspondence between multivariate risk aversion and risk aversion with state-dependent preferences. It shows that the prerequisite for comparability of risk aversion in the multivariate case, namely, identical ordinal preferences on the commodity space, corresponds to identical, properly defined, reference sets in the case of state-dependent preferences. For comparable decision makers the condition that the utility function of one is a concave transformation of that of the other on the commodity space corresponds to the condition that the expected utility of one is a concave transformation of that of the other on the reference set.     

Familiarity breeds completeness

This is a study of the representations of subjective expected utility preferences that admit state-dependent incompleteness, and subjective expected utility preferences displaying non-comparability of acts from distinct sources. The notions familiar events and sources are defined and characterized. The relation greater familiarity on sources and increasing familiarity of a source are also defined and characterized.     

A theory of Bayesian decision making with action-dependent subjective probabilities

This paper presents a complete, choice-based, axiomatic Bayesian decision theory. It introduces a new choice set consisting of information-contingent plans for choosing actions and bets and subjective expected utility model with effect-dependent utility functions and action-dependent subjective probabilities which, in conjunction with the updating of the probabilities using Bayes’ rule, gives rise to a unique prior and a set of action-dependent posterior probabilities representing the decision maker’s prior and posterior beliefs.     

On Optimal Insurance in the Presence of Moral Hazard

This paper expounds on the importance of identifiabilty of subjective probabilities in agency theory with moral hazard. An application to insurance is examined.     

Red herrings: Some thoughts on the meaning of zero-probability events and mathematical modeling

Kicking off the discussion following Savage's presentation at the 1952 Paris colloquium, Arrow raised what he considered to be a difficulty with the intuitive interpretation of Savage's theorem. It suggests that decision makers strictly prefer betting on an event of measure zero over betting on a proper subset of that event. Within the realm of the revealed-preference methodology and limited verifiability, Arrow's difficulty is a red herring: the problem he poses has its origin in the technical aspects of Savage's model and not in its substantive aspect.     

Optimal Unemployment Insurance: A Survey

Unemployment insurance improves the allocation of risk bearing at the cost of reduced incentives for work. In the past two decades, a branch of the literature has emerged that deals with the optimal design of unemployment insurance. This literature has been influenced by ideas and methods from information economics and by theories from labor economics. The result is a collection of models designed to highlight a variety of issues pertaining to the provision of optimal unemployment insurance. This paper reviews these issues, summarizes the relevant literature, assesses its accomplishments, and points out problems that require further study.     

Elicitation of Subjective Probabilities when Preferences are State-Dependent

This paper presents an experimental design that enables the elicitation of subjective probabilities of decision makers' whose preferences satisfy the axioms of expected utility theory and are state-dependent.