Inflation Forecast Targeting: An Alternative Approach to Estimating the Inflation‐Output Variability Tradeoff

We suggest a new way of computing the inflation‐output variability tradeoff under inflation forecast targeting. Our approach is based on dynamic, stochastic simulations of the average inflation rate over a two‐year horizon using the moving average representation of a vector autoregressive (VAR) model. Using real‐time data over two samples, we estimate the inflation‐output variability tradeoff for the United States and show that it has shifted favorably over time. We analyze the policy interventions required to achieve target inflation in each sample and compare these interventions over time.     

Solving optimal timing problems in environmental economics

Two papers of Pindyck, 2000, Pindyck, 2002 that modeled the control of stock pollutants as optimal stopping problems contained closed form solutions that are incorrect. This paper discusses a subtle error in the derivation and demonstrates how solutions to these and related problems can be obtained numerically. The numerical solutions are contrasted with the ones contained in Pindyck's original papers.     

Learning and the time interdependence of Costa Rican exports

Exports may enhance learning through production-induced learning by doing, learning to export by doing, and flows of information from customers. We provide evidence on the learning effects of export destination for Costa Rica for 1955 through 1980. We examine Granger-causality results and export trends to determine relationships between exports to the Central American Common Market (CACM), the rest of the South, and the North. Increasing exports to the CACM appear to promote learning in machinery, leather, and intermediate manufactures. We also find that the CACM redirects some exports away from Northern markets, probably with damaging consequences.     

Bernanke versus Taylor: a post mortem

Our analysis sheds light on the issue of whether the monetary policy contributed to the recent housing boom and bust. We have estimated and analysed a model that allows a comparison between the actual policy and several alternative Taylor rules. When the Taylor rule path was computed using revised data and the deflator for the GDP, we found a notable impact on key housing market variables, supporting Taylor’s critique of the Fed policy. However, the bulk of our evidence suggests that the policy as it would have been conducted under our real-time Taylor rules would not have had any significant impact on the housing market variables. This conclusion is robust with regard to the price index used as well as the relative weights used on the inflation and output gaps.     

Specification and Goldfeld money demand function

Despite intensive investigation of the temporal stability of the Goldfield formulation of the money demand function, a clear consensus on its stability has yet to emerge. This paper builds a statistical case supporting the first difference of log-levels specification, as opposed to the more commonly used log-levels specification, of the Goldfeld equation and then examines the stability of both specifications. Formal stability tests proposed by Cooley and Prescott, Farley and Hinich, and Brown, Durbin, and Evans are employed; the out-of-sample predictive performance is examined as well. These tests strongly support the first difference specification over thelog-levels specification.     

Estimating the Degree of Market Integration

Existing tests of spatial market integration are commonly based on statistical criteria without an explicit link to an economic model of price determination. This article proposes new measures of market integration defined directly in terms of a well-known spatial price determination model and develops an econometric methodology for estimating these measures. Due to the intractability of the conditional density function of prices, we use indirect inference to estimate the model parameters and market integration measures. The methodology is illustrated with simulated data and is applied to soybean price data for the United States, Brazil, and the EU.     

The nominal rate of interest, the rate of return on money, and inflationary expectations

This paper offers two modifications to the standard comparative-static analysis that help explain why nominal interest rates may either over- or under-adjust to a change in inflationary expectations, even in full general equilibrium: the inclusion of the real rate of return to money balances in commodity demand functions, and the presence of differing costs of obtaining information. In brief, the first factor may explain why nominal interest rates could over-adjust to a change in inflationary expectations, while the second may substitute for real balance effects in limiting the upward adjustment of nominal rates.