Applying input-output analysis to scenario analysis of ecological footprints

Application of input-output analysis to ecological footprints (EFs) is shifting from an ex-post static calculation toward an ex-ante scenario analysis for enhancing the policy relevance of EF analysis. This change in application prompts two issues requiring careful examination: (1) what is measured by Leontief inverses or extended environmental Leontief inverses, and (2) whether a sector's land multiplier (or compositions of land multiplier) can appropriately reflect the effect of delivering one unit of the sector's output to final demand on the required area(s) of production lands used by the sector itself and by other producing sectors whose products are contributed directly and indirectly to its production. The underlying message of these two questions is whether the assumed linear marginal relationship between a sector's output and its intermediate inputs (input-output coefficients)—a critical assumption made by W. Leontief to transform a transactions table from an accounting framework into the input-output model—can be extended to assume that the marginal relationship between a sector's output and the area of production land it uses for generating output is fixed (land-output marginal coefficient equal to average coefficient). By reviewing the literature on input-output analysis and its application to environmental issues and by theoretically and empirically examining the relation between sector output and land appropriation, this study advises against the use of land multipliers or their compositions in the EF scenario analysis.To apply the input-output model to EF scenario analysis for enhancing policy relevance with due attention to the relationship between sector output and land appropriation, this study suggests a two-stage EF calculation procedure. In the first stage, the input-output application estimates only the required raw materials (or generated pollutants) for meeting a given consumption pattern, which is the objective of environmental input-output analysis; in the second stage, the estimated amount of raw materials or pollutants is converted into land/water area, and a choice of conversion methods is suggested according to the research questions and the availability of conversion methods and required data.     

Effects of food consumption patterns on paddy field use in Taiwan

Societal metabolism and land use are significant and interrelated issues, and play a role in sustainable development. How a society's metabolism relates to local land use is typically affected by the particular context of the society under study, which is usually shaped by many factors, including economic, ecological, cultural, technological, and political factors. This study examines the effects of changes in food consumption patterns – decreasing per capita consumption of rice and increasing per capita consumption of wheat flour and meat – on the use of paddy fields in Taiwan. Although rice is grown domestically, wheat, which is a substitute for rice, is mainly imported. Moreover, the domestic livestock industry depends heavily on imported crops for low-cost feed. Accordingly, dietary changes have significantly decreased the demand for local paddy fields to grow crops. Additionally, the diversion of paddy fields to grow forage crops, which has been promoted by the Taiwanese government by guaranteeing prices for feed maize for 14 years, was discouraged when Taiwan joined the World Trade Organization in 2002, as Taiwan was required at that time to reduce by 20% its aggregate measure of support. The presented Taiwan case provides an empirical example of how a change in input characteristics (supply sources in a spatial dimension) of societal metabolism can, together with other factors, significantly affect local paddy fields, and discusses the underlying implications for sustainable development.