The Five-Year Outlook as a policy document: Historical and comparative perspectives

The article reflects on the role played by policy analysis in the development of national science policies. Its thesis is that science policy, for coherence as a policy function and its impact on policy making, depends on analysis of goals, strategies, issues, and programs; policy crystallizes, to the extent it does, through the medium of policy analysis. First, a number of United States science policy reports prepared between 1945 and 1980 are reviewed. Next, recent science policy reports from predominantly western countries are examined. Taken together, these historical and comparative perspectives make it possible to appreciate the policy potential of future Five-Year Outlook reports.     

Fixed costs per shipment

Exporting firms do not only decide how much of their products they ship abroad but also at which frequency. Doing so, they face a trade-off between saving on fixed costs per shipments (by shipping large amounts infrequently) and saving on storage costs (by delivering just in time with small and frequent shipments). The firm's optimal choice defines a mapping from size and frequency of shipments to fixed costs per shipment. We use a unique dataset of Swiss cross-border trade on the transaction level to infer the size and shape of the underlying fixed costs. The inferred fixed costs are specific to each firm–country–product combination. Our results suggest that the fixed costs per shipment of the average Swiss exporter are large, ranging between 0.82% of the export value in our most conservative specification and 5.4%. We document that the imputed fixed costs per shipment correlate negatively with language commonalities, trade agreements and geographic proximity.     

Inference in Cointegrating Models: UK M1 Revisited

The paper addresses the practical determination of cointegration rank. This is difficult for many reasons: deterministic terms play a crucial role in limiting distributions, and systems may not be formulated to ensure similarity to nuisance parameters; finite-sample critical values may differ from asymptotic equivalents; dummy variables alter critical values, often greatly; multiple cointegration vectors must be identified to allow inference; the data may be I(2) rather than I(1), altering distributions; and conditioning must be done with care. These issues are illustrated by an empirical application of multivariate cointegration analysis to a small model of narrow money, prices, output and interest rates in the UK.     

APPROXIMATIONS TO THE ASYMPTOTIC DISTRIBUTIONS OF COINTEGRATION TESTS

The asymptotic distributions of cointegration tests are approximated using the Gamma distribution. The tests considered are for the I(1), the conditional I(1), as well as the I(2) model. Formulae for the parameters of the Gamma distributions are derived from response surfaces. The resulting approximation is flexible, easy to implement and more accurate than the standard tables previously published.     

Profit Sharing, Capital Formation and the NAIRU

This paper reconsiders the impact of different remuneration systems on aggregate employment. Contrary to common wisdom on this topic, we show that the switch from a fixed wage economy to a share economy results in lower aggregate unemployment. An additional innovation of this paper is the endogeneity of the capital stock decision of the firm, which enables us to assess and reject the common "disincentive-to-invest" criticism of a share economy.     

Econometric software development: past, present and future

We give a short international history of econometric software development, with an emphasis on the origin of the main existing econometric packages. We provide a Dutch perspective on this development. We identify the characteristics of econometric software in comparison with mathematical and statistical software. Finally, a number of recent developments connected with the reuse of code across econometric softwares are discussed.     

Distribution approximations for cointegration tests with stationary exogenous regressors

The distribution of a functional of two correlated vector‐Brownian motions is approximated by a Gamma distribution. This functional represents the limiting distribution for cointegration tests with stationary exogenous regressors, but also for cointegration tests based on a non‐Gaussian likelihood. The approximation is accurate, fast and easy to use in comparison with both tabulated critical values and simulated p‐values. The proposed procedure is applied to a UK model investigating purchasing power parity. Copyright © 2005 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Identifying, estimating and testing restricted cointegrated systems: An overview

The notion of cointegration has led to a renewed interest in the identification and estimation of structural relations among economic time series. This paper reviews the different approaches that have been put forward in the literature for identifying cointegrating relationships and imposing (possibly over-identifying) restrictions on them. Next, various algorithms to obtain (approximate) maximum likelihood estimates and likelihood ratio statistics are reviewed, with an emphasis on so-called switching algorithms. The implementation of these algorithms is discussed and illustrated using an empirical example.